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Stocks looking a lot like April
Old 01-24-2011, 09:04 PM   #1
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Stocks looking a lot like April

These charts are of the Russell 2000, the index that led the market up.
It is looking a lot like April.
Anyone lightening up on stocks?

First is the daily
Second is the weekly
Take a look at the heavy vertical blue lines.

Also, it has started to bounce along the lower bollenger band on the daily.

Don't put too much weight on the January Barometer.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1145...uary-barometer
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Old 01-24-2011, 09:14 PM   #2
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Dex, I thought you went to all cash. Why are you fretting over bolinger bands?
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Old 01-24-2011, 09:21 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Dex, I thought you went to all cash. Why are you fretting over bolinger bands?
I may put in a small short this week. There is a Fed action or meeting on Wed. that could pop the market up a bit more.
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Old 01-24-2011, 10:31 PM   #4
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I don't know Dex, I think I'm gonna pass on your lead. But who knows, you may get lucky since you got skunked the last time. Good luck!
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Old 01-24-2011, 11:05 PM   #5
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Since stocks in general are slightly overvalued (in my own estimation), I am slightly underweight stocks. I have cash at the ready to buy more equities on a pullback.
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Old 01-25-2011, 01:01 AM   #6
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Am I reading about market timing here?
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Old 01-25-2011, 02:31 AM   #7
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The headline markets (Dow, Dax, etc) are up a couple of points on last week, but my emerging markets and Asia funds are all down.

This race-to-the-bottom with currencies is hurting my numbers, too. Every time I gain 5% on US/UK stocks, the Euro - which everyone tells me is about to "collapse" - gains another 3% on the $/ and that's half my gain gone. The best thing that could happen to my portfolio is a 10% drop in the Euro.
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Old 01-25-2011, 03:55 AM   #8
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Are you in the right forum?
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Old 01-25-2011, 06:17 AM   #9
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I've been selling equities, but it hasn't anything to do with astrological star charts. But considering the "success" of the last "sell signal" (SPX up 20% in 5 months, 55% annualized) I should reconsider and move all-in.
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Old 01-25-2011, 07:05 AM   #10
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I guess we know "whaddaya do all day" in Dex' case.

What is next? Market divination via the entrails of a chicken?
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Old 01-25-2011, 07:06 AM   #11
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Are you in the right forum?
If you mean me: I'm just b*tchin'.

I check the BBC 6-item market ticker every day - the numbers have all been green for a week. Then I make my twice-weekly visit to my online accounts and all of my stock-based funds equities are off by 2-3%. 10K down in a week hurts more than 70K up in the past 5 months (which of course was partly due to the Euro softening a little).
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Old 01-25-2011, 07:10 AM   #12
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I've reduced equities a bit, but that's just my normal re-balancing after the runup.
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Old 01-25-2011, 01:01 PM   #13
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I seem to see a head-and-shoulders top just above the breakout of the MACD stochastic. I am waiting to hear what Cramer says about it today.
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Old 01-25-2011, 02:10 PM   #14
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I see an upside down coffee cup and I'll wait to see what Suze has to say about it tonight.
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Old 01-25-2011, 02:20 PM   #15
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Nobody knows what equity prices will do, but we all know that Mr. Bernanke wants them to go up and hang around those levels for a while. Seein' how he's in charge of the printing press and got the whole place working overtime, I'm thinkin' he's gonna get what he wants. I'm sure not gonna bet against him.
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Old 01-25-2011, 02:37 PM   #16
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I see big breasts, and I'm going to wait and see what Craig Ferguson says tonight.
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Old 01-25-2011, 02:56 PM   #17
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April who?


Sorry, Dex, your thread title just plain tickled my funny bone.

To answer the question you asked... No, I am sticking with my 40/60 AA plan. If anything, my temporary cash (13% in a VG NY TE money market bond fund) position will be utilized before June. I just haven't decided what I will do with it.
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Old 01-25-2011, 03:48 PM   #18
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I see big breasts, and I'm going to wait and see what Craig Ferguson says tonight.
Darn, I either need better glasses, or worse ones.
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Old 01-25-2011, 11:44 PM   #19
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We might rebalance a little out of Berkshire Hathaway and some small-cap value ETF shares, but that's only if they go outside their asset-allocation band.

Unfortunately that's nowhere near as exciting as technical analysis. Those guys get all the hot chicks.
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Old 01-26-2011, 02:19 AM   #20
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This is the chart I'm looking at
S&P 500 PE Ratio Chart
Combined with the second figure (scatter plot) here
P/E ratio - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
... which means that I'm liquidating as sell criterias get hit and either put it the money into short/medium duration bonds and low beta dividend stocks.

I'm not trying to hit anything dynamically. It's more the observation that statistically speaking market P/E > 20 never bodes well for long-term performance, like never ever. Granted, I may feel rich for a year or two if I hang on, but it would be hard to find the exit point. I will, therefore, forgo all the excitement and just start getting out now.
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