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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
Interesting article:
http://tinyurl.com/ozwr6 Don't look at me. That is essentially the message of a new Federal Reserve study arguing that productivity--not the central bank's own policy of rock-bottom interest rates--was behind a five-year housing boom that now seems to be ending rather abruptly.
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He had one of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it . . . It faced, or seemed to face, the whole external world for an instant and then concentrated on you with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. -- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald |
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#2 |
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
*sniff* *sniff*
I smell bullsiht...
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“When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
I thought we were in a real economic slump from 2001-2003 or so. As such, how could productivity have caused the housing boom? If we were so productive, why was it necessary to cut interest rates to the bone?
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He had one of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it . . . It faced, or seemed to face, the whole external world for an instant and then concentrated on you with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. -- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald |
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#4 |
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
Real world & our creditors: "You idiots! Negative real interest rates and lax lending standards caused a US housing bubble that threatens to wreck the US economy and take the rest of the world down with it!"
Fed: "It wasn't me. It was the one-armed man..."
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“When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid |
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Recycles dryer sheets
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
What are the phases of a bubble? Optimism, speculation, greed, blame, or something ...
It's laughable, while the bubble was due to more than low rates, the root cause was certainly low rates. They're just trying to stay clean. |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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Getting rid of the house with the 225,000 mtg and cashing in before the housing markets sure sign of hitting the skids getting the builder of my new home to cut the price by 7 K and now only have a 390 dollar a month mtg and paid almost 3 years ahead, being in a place with real estate tax bill at 3K not 9K like NJ. And to think I have been offered jobs to teach down here in NC and to have a nice pension with medical and cola and to be only 50. Wow. How did I do something right for a change?? |
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#7 |
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
you shouldn't rely on the media interpretation of the research!* here's a link to the original [/url]http://www.chicagofed.org/publicatio...er_quayyum.pdf
they state "our findings do suggest that to the extent that house prices have grown considerably in recent years, this is not due to unusually excessive speculation in the housing market, such as would occur in a bubble. Instead, our findings point toward the high prices being driven by fundamentals" BTW, the "wealth creation" referenced was "over the previous decade", not early this decade. |
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#8 | |
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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?Hopefully - all the adjustments - won't be a replay of our 1966-1981 or the Japanese experience. We're smarter this time around - Right ![]() Buckle up - it's gonna be fun! heh heh heh heh heh |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
Quote:
"While over the last two years nominal mortgage rates have started creeping up, real rates have continued to fall because inflation expectations have been rising. These considerations suggest that sustained low interest rates, possibly driven by unusually loose monetary policy, could be fueling the housing boom." Page 32. Strangely enough, they then say in their conclusion section that: "Our main findings are as follows. First, it appears that the housing boom has not been driven by unusually loose monetary policy. This is not to say the monetary policy has not been unusually loose, but that to the extent it has been loose, this is not what has been driving spending on housing. Second, the current levels of spending on new housing are largely explained by technology-driven wealth creation over the previous decade. Third, changes in the demographic, income, educational, and regional structure of the population account for about one-half of the increase in homeownership. That is, without any other developments, the homeownership rate is likely to have gone up anyway, but not by as much as it has done. The last finding is that substitution away from rental housing made possible by developments in the mortgage market, such as subprime lending, could account for a significant fraction of the increase in residential investment and homeownership." -- Page 43 The last sentence is the real kicker. In other words, "it wasn't us, blame the greedy bankers!"
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He had one of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it . . . It faced, or seemed to face, the whole external world for an instant and then concentrated on you with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. -- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald |
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#10 |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
I just got off the phone with the realtor who listed my house she didn't sell it someone else did , BUT she told me NOT 1 house in the 1000 home neighborhood has sold in the past 6 weeks. There are 57 listed.
Said mine was the last to sell ! I looked at the realtor site and sure enough the same houses are listed with lower listing prices. Some substantially lower. In fact a house that was listed at 600,000 in Jan is now listed at 525,000. A house listed in may at 634,000 is now listed at 579,000. Kinda looks like the number of homes that are on the market might still in buyers eyes be over priced. We bought ours for 230,000 sold it for 513,000. 10 years old we bought it new, Toll Brothers house. It is common knowledge what people paid for these homes in the neighborhood, it looks as though buyers are saying we will wait em out. 400,000-465,000 range ? Maybe?? Heck it still would be a good profit for many except I know how many people refinanced and used the equity as a cash cow only to see that they now have little equity! Dummies! |
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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Over all was the silence of the wilderness - Sigurd Olsen |
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#12 | |
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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__________________
“When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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#14 | |
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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I find it interesting how individual Americans, the borrowers, seem to be skating free of responsibility for their own predicaments. *Of course, how could the Fed, or anyone else, make a statement that would place the blame for people's situations squarely in their own laps? *That would be way too unpopular............. * :P I wonder today, who would get the blame for the bubble in tulip prices in the prior century.......the famous "tulipmania" scenario. *What government agency is actually responsible for people's stupidity and greed?
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Over all was the silence of the wilderness - Sigurd Olsen |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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We priced the place to sell, never had any home equity lines of credit never refied and took cash out. We sold they have not, I know what that 525 guy paid for his house 331. He also bought two fancy cars in the last 4 years. |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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__________________
He had one of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it . . . It faced, or seemed to face, the whole external world for an instant and then concentrated on you with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. -- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald |
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
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#18 | |
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ... ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Join Date: Mar 2003
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Re: Study: Tech, not spec, fueled U.S. housing boom
Quote:
__________________
“When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid |
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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