Tax rate for the retired or semi-retired with Roth

[workburnout]

I was wondering what my tax rate would likely be in semi-retirement/retirement.

Could anyone who recently scaled back working give an idea as to if their tax rate went down much?

Lets say I make $100K a year now, with some deductions, and after a few more years, scale back work to making $50K and using $10,000 a year from my Roth accounts. Would tax rate likely go down much?

If my tax rate is going to be a lot lower, maybe I should stop contributing to the Roth IRA and use a traditional instead.

As of now, I have almost all retirement savings in Roth accounts. A lot I contributed from earnings each year. A lot was converted slowly throughout several years after I rolled over a previous employer's 401K to a Traditional IRA.

My effective tax rate has been 10-15 percent due to taking a lot of work deductions - around $30,000 worth.

Now, my tax rate is going to go up some this year due to changes in the tax law which mean I can not take as many business deductions as an employee as I could.

I will be able to take some as I also have a part time 1099 job for some income where I can deduct some expenses, so it's unclear how much my taxes will increase -but for certain they will this year.

I will need to wait until taxes are done for 2018 to know my effective tax rate.

After about 4-5 more years working full time, I plan to slowly scale back working a little less each year.

I will probably never totally stop working due to the fact I have old customers I worked a lot with in the past, now calling in repeat orders for which I now get paid for doing little work. Sometimes I get referrals so I would call those, but I would not prospect for new business as I do now, as that takes up a lot more work and time.

As of now, I work hard with both old and new customers, constantly developing new business - and that keeps my income up to the $100,000 a year.

If I scaled back slowly over the years, I could be to where I work 2-3 days a week and make $50,000 a year, after 7-10 more years. I would be in my early to mid-50's.

House will be paid off and little expenses, so I would let most of the Roth and taxable accounts grow, and still contribute to the Roth - I think - or maybe I should quit making Roth contributions?

I do not know if it's likely to benefit me much longer to use a Roth.

No one knows for sure what tax rates will do, but I am guessing they will go up in general.

But if my income goes down, and say in 10 yrs I'm making half what I make now - then 10 yrs after that I'm making $30,000 instead of $50,000, using money from my Roth for some income - is anything going to happen with my tax rate - up or down much?

The business expense deductions would go down proportionately with income.

Also, in semi- retirement, I could draw from my taxable non-retirement accounts if it made sense to do that - instead of taking from the Roth.

I also have some taxable investments where I make maybe $5000-10,000 a year that varies based on a little trading (short term, but not day trading) each year.

Wondering if anyone has a similar situation where they recently scaled back working or has a good idea on whether or not I'd be better off with adding to the Roth each year, or would be better with the Traditional due to likely tax rate changes?

 

[USGrant1962]

The best thing is to try some scenarios in tax software or one of the online tax estimators like https://www.hrblock.com/tax-calculator/#/en/te/aboutYou or https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/ .

Our income tax system is the most progressive in the world, and you will find that your taxes drop quicker than your income. In 2017 I only worked half a year and I was shocked at how low my tax bill was compared to the prior full year.

 

[workburnout]

The best thing is to try some scenarios in tax software or one of the online tax estimators like https://www.hrblock.com/tax-calculator/#/en/te/aboutYou or https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/ .

Our income tax system is the most progressive in the world, and you will find that your taxes drop quicker than your income. The drop from the 22% bracket to the 12% bracket is huge - a 45% reduction in the marginal tax rate. In your scenario, if MFJ, dropping $50K of taxable income (i.e. from $100K to $50K gross, or $76K to $26K taxable) would likely be going from the top to bottom of the 22% bracket, hence ~$11K in Federal tax savings plus whatever your state tax situation is.

In 2017 I only worked half a year and I was shocked at how low my tax bill was compared to the prior full year.

So then, would I be stupid to keep putting money into the Roth IRA?
Or is it a 50-50 shot depending on what taxes will do?

What if I spent $80000 some years, using money from part time income and from my investments (Roth and non-Roth), travelling, in my 60's. Then would my income go up due to the fact I took some from my non-Roth?

I always liked contributing to a Roth better thinking it would save a lot not having to pay taxes on earned income.
However, with a Roth, I am paying tax upfront and that is money I would use to invest, if I did not use it for tax paying.

I'm wondering if it matters much either way.
I am thinking in the long run that it could make a difference of thousands of dollars, if I make the wrong decision - using a Roth when I should use a Traditional or vice versa.

Edit to add: I generally do not like the tax calculators because they are always wrong regarding my taxes - due to the fact I have a lot of business expenses they don't let me claim - which were legal to claim up until this new tax law change.

Maybe I should try the tax calculators again, I just got sick of them spitting out wrong information since they did not seem to "understand" my situation where my employer requires me to pay for expenses. I got frustrated and used my CPA instead - I have fairly complicated taxes so it's a lot easier and saves me time.

 

[Huston55]

There are a lot of possible scenarios in your situation as described because, lots of things can vary in the 10+/- yrs until you ‘semi-FIRE’ (income, tax rates, market, inflation, global warming, meteors). But, I think there are a few truisms that should guide you.

1. Assume the tax brackets will be the same in the future (because nobody knows any better).
2. Balance your retirement funds btwn Tax Deferred, Tax Free, and After Tax (to have maximum flexibility to manage taxes & provide FIRE income)
3. Have a solid plan for pre-SS FIRE income (which normally means a healthy chunk of ‘After Tax’ funds)
4. Have a rock solid plan for pre-MC health care during FIRE (not directly tax related but, lack of it will dwarf your tax worries)

Back to your original question of whether your tax rate will change during FIRE. The short answer is almost certainly “yes.” Your taxable income will almost certainly go down; ours did dramatically. But, how much it goes down while you try to maintain your lifestyle (the yin & yang of FIRE) is entirely dependent on how well you address items 1-4 above. Best of luck.

 

[USGrant1962]

First, you can ignore that example - I realized after I hit post that I slipped a digit and you are mostly in the 12% bracket now and will probably still be in you lower tax scenario. But your effective tax rate will still drop sharply.

With that, I always suggest tax diversification. It is good to have some money in taxable, some in tax deferred (tIRA), and some in tax free (Roth). It gives you the most flexibility for managing tax credits and tax cliffs. The pros and cons of adding to each of these depend on your current and future tax brackets (as you note), contribution limits, how long money will be invested, asset categories/asset allocation, and how much you already have in each type of account.

IMO, Roths are the best of the three types of accounts as long as money will be in the Roth for 5 years or more for the 5-year rule and for compounding of returns.

 

[sengsational]

I've never been a big fan of tax estimation calculators, because of the reasons you mentioned. I've always have been a fan of simply doing your taxes with real tax software before the fact. If I ran the world, the tax law on January 1 would be the governing law for that year. But, alas, I don't run the world, and they can change the tax laws "whenever". But often, the previous years' tax software is a darn good estimate of the next year. Less so for 2018, but you might run a few "what if" calculations with 2017 software, making allowances for what you know is already law for 2018. Your goal is to make decisions on actionable items, like whether to work more and whether to save in Roth vs traditional. Those might be similar under 2017 and 2018 law.

 

[DrRoy]

From my peak earnings year to my first full RE year, my fed. taxable income fell by 60% and my FIT tax due fell by 70%. I also went from the 25% (now 22%) bracket to the 15% (now 12%) bracket. Everyone's situation will vary.

My spending is actually higher, due to the reduction of various taxes and no longer saving for RE.

 

[pb4uski]

If you use Turbo Tax to prepare your taxes your best bet is to open a form called the What-If worksheet and put in your projected post retirement income numbers.... for the year that your retire and for the first full year of retirement. Like others have posted... once you see the results you may be doing this...

If you use other software then they may have some similar functionality.

If you don't prepare your own taxes you could either see if your tax preparer can do it using their software or you can use TaxCaster available for free online.

Also, be cognizant of state income taxes... my state income tax bill commonly exceeds my federal income tax bill in retirement.

If your taxable account investments are in equities, then if your income is low enough (12% tax bracket or lower) then qualified dividends and long-term taxable gains are tax free... and international equities can actually have a negative tax rate as foreign tax credits exceed ordinary income tax on non-qualified dividends.

Due to these complications, you really need to do a pro forma return to get a good read on what your post retirement taxes will be.

 

[workburnout]

I've never been a big fan of tax estimation calculators, because of the reasons you mentioned. I've always have been a fan of simply doing your taxes with real tax software before the fact. If I ran the world, the tax law on January 1 would be the governing law for that year. But, alas, I don't run the world, and they can change the tax laws "whenever". But often, the previous years' tax software is a darn good estimate of the next year. Less so for 2018, but you might run a few "what if" calculations with 2017 software, making allowances for what you know is already law for 2018. Your goal is to make decisions on actionable items, like whether to work more and whether to save in Roth vs traditional. Those might be similar under 2017 and 2018 law.

For most people 2017 and 2018 will be the same. I'm in an unusual situation where I could deduct business expenses as an employee, that my employer required us to pay. Now, due to the tax law changes, I will no longer be able to deduct those. Unfortunately my CPA said it will cost me $7500 in additional taxes this year. However, I got a side job which overlaps clients I have with the regular job, so I will be able to deduct some expenses. So I will maybe owe $3000 addditional tax instead of the 7500 additional tax.

Now, if I put money in a traditional instead of a Roth, that would save more tax for 2018.

Will do more calculations when I have time, later today.

 

[Qs Laptop]

My effective tax rate has been 10-15 percent due to taking a lot of work deductions - around $30,000 worth.

Now, my tax rate is going to go up some this year due to changes in the tax law which mean I can not take as many business deductions as an employee as I could.

I don't understand how a reduction in the tax rate tables will cause your tax rate to go up. What business deductions can an employee take in 2017 that they can't take in 2018?

Anyway, generally speaking you would contribute to a traditional IRA because you want to use the contribution to reduce your taxable income for the year.

Are you married or single?
How long until you want to retire?

 

[RunningBum]

I didn't read this all too closely, but it looks like you are debating between Roth contributions vs. taxable. I would always max out a Roth when I can, because it grows tax free. You mentioned paying the tax upfront before the Roth contribution, but you also pay the tax upfront before putting money in taxable, so there is no upfront chance there. The difference is whether the earnings are taxed or not. As long as you have a workable plan for withdrawals with whatever limitations a Roth puts you on, I would say no doubt you should stick with the Roth. It will be no worse than breakeven, and in many cases better.

 

[RunningBum]

If you are talking Roth contributions vs traditional IRA/401K, it's all whether your tax rate is higher now than in retirement or not. If you can't figure that out, I doubt I can.

 

[workburnout]

I don't understand how a reduction in the tax rate tables will cause your tax rate to go up. What business deductions can an employee take in 2017 that they can't take in 2018?

Anyway, generally speaking you would contribute to a traditional IRA because you want to use the contribution to reduce your taxable income for the year.

Are you married or single?
How long until you want to retire?

Employees can no longer deduct mileage, promotional items (such as logoed advertisement items given to clients), home office deductions (even if employer requires that we work from home) and things like that.

Not married. Do not plan to fully retire. Plan to scale back slowly as mentioned in original post.

 

[workburnout]

I didn't read this all too closely, but it looks like you are debating between Roth contributions vs. taxable. I would always max out a Roth when I can, because it grows tax free. You mentioned paying the tax upfront before the Roth contribution, but you also pay the tax upfront before putting money in taxable, so there is no upfront chance there. The difference is whether the earnings are taxed or not. As long as you have a workable plan for withdrawals with whatever limitations a Roth puts you on, I would say no doubt you should stick with the Roth. It will be no worse than breakeven, and in many cases better.

With a Roth you pay the tax in the year you contribute.
With a non-Roth traditional account, you do not pay tax in the year you contribute.

The money you would use for paying tax, can be used to invest instead.
Example:
You have $1250.
You are at a 25 percent tax rate.
You contribute $1000 to a Roth or $1000 to a Traditional.
For the Roth, you would owe 25% taxes so $250.
For the Traditional, you would not owe any tax that year on it so you would have $250 to invest in non-taxable accounts.

 

[GalaxyBoy]

In my first year of ER my federal taxes went down quite dramatically due to sharply decreased income and no tax on LTCG in my bracket. However, I was caught with my pants down on state taxes since my state has no such break on LTCG. For 2018 I’m having extra withheld for state tax from DW’s small pension.

Regarding Roth vs Traditional IRAs, you might find what the Bogleheads wiki has to say on the subject useful:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Traditional_versus_Roth

 

[workburnout]

There are a lot of possible scenarios in your situation as described because, lots of things can vary in the 10+/- yrs until you ‘semi-FIRE’ (income, tax rates, market, inflation, global warming, meteors). But, I think there are a few truisms that should guide you.

1. Assume the tax brackets will be the same in the future (because nobody knows any better).
2. Balance your retirement funds btwn Tax Deferred, Tax Free, and After Tax (to have maximum flexibility to manage taxes & provide FIRE income)
3. Have a solid plan for pre-SS FIRE income (which normally means a healthy chunk of ‘After Tax’ funds)
4. Have a rock solid plan for pre-MC health care during FIRE (not directly tax related but, lack of it will dwarf your tax worries)

Back to your original question of whether your tax rate will change during FIRE. The short answer is almost certainly “yes.” Your taxable income will almost certainly go down; ours did dramatically. But, how much it goes down while you try to maintain your lifestyle (the yin & yang of FIRE) is entirely dependent on how well you address items 1-4 above. Best of luck.

Maybe that's what I will do - start to put in traditional and leave what I have in the Roth already - so later on I can draw from whichever account (Roth or non-Roth) is most tax advantageous at the time.

The healthcare is provided by my company at no charge, so long as I maintain a certain production/income level which is about half what I make now. That is another reason for me not to fully retire. I can work 2-3 days a week and still be considered "full time" by my company if I produce/earn what is required to maintain the health insurance. They don't care the hours we work, as long as we produce and earn the company money, which is easily measurable.

 

[Huston55]

With a Roth you pay the tax in the year you contribute.
With a non-Roth traditional account, you do not pay tax in the year you contribute.

The money you would use for paying tax, can be used to invest instead.
Example:
You have $1250.
You are at a 25 percent tax rate.
You contribute $1000 to a Roth or $1000 to a Traditional.
For the Roth, you would owe 25% taxes so $250.
For the Traditional, you would not owe any tax that year on it so you would have $250 to invest in non-taxable accounts.

Suggest you read this Kitces post regarding Roth v Traditional IRAs, along with the other posts linked in it. Although there are multiple factors, I think you will see that marginal tax rates (now & in the future) are a key factor. And, what do we know about future marginal tax rates? We don’t know so, we assume they remain the same.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/roth-vs-traditional-ira-the-four-factors-that-determine-which-is-best/

 

[workburnout]

In my first year of ER my federal taxes went down quite dramatically due to sharply decreased income and no tax on LTCG in my bracket. However, I was caught with my pants down on state taxes since my state has no such break on LTCG. For 2018 I’m having extra withheld for state tax from DW’s small pension.

Regarding Roth vs Traditional IRAs, you might find what the Bogleheads wiki has to say on the subject useful:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Traditional_versus_Roth

Not sure about State taxes - they always seem a lot lower than Federal. I am in GA so we do have them. Not sure if I will stay here or move back to FL for retirement. If I did move then would not have State taxes, but that is an unknown for now.

That article is helpful. Especially the part that says:

Tax considerations:

If your current marginal tax rate is 15% or less, prefer a Roth.[note 1]
If you expect to have higher marginal rates than your current marginal rate for most of your career, prefer a Roth.
If you will have a traditional account or a pension large enough to meet your expected retirement expenses (and you expect to take that pension shortly after retiring), prefer a Roth.[3]
Otherwise, prefer a traditional account.

I am going to re-read it and study the examples to better wrap my head around it.

As far as the 401K part of the article, we have one with extremely high fees and low returns, and no option to choose our own investments within the plan. I have done a lot of calculations on that, and determined it is not worth it for me to contribute since the plan is poor. Have asked my company to change it, I have discussed why and explained, but they do not listen, as the person running the 401K plan is friends with one of the company owners. It does not get as good of returns as it would if I put the money in index funds in a taxable account. We can not take money out of it until we reach retirement or quit the company. The match they provide is eaten up in fees hidden within the investments they have us in. Took some digging to find all this out. Bottom line is my 401K is not a good option for me.

 

[RunningBum]

With a Roth you pay the tax in the year you contribute.
With a non-Roth traditional account, you do not pay tax in the year you contribute.

The money you would use for paying tax, can be used to invest instead.
Example:
You have $1250.
You are at a 25 percent tax rate.
You contribute $1000 to a Roth or $1000 to a Traditional.
For the Roth, you would owe 25% taxes so $250.
For the Traditional, you would not owe any tax that year on it so you would have $250 to invest in non-taxable accounts.

Yes, I know how that works. You mentioned about 5 times whether you should stop contributing to the Roth. Only at the bottom of your OP did you talk about Roth vs Traditional, so I thought you might be talking about Roth contributions or none at all.

And your 25% rate is only part of the story. Your estimated rate in retirement is the other part.

 

[workburnout]

If you use Turbo Tax to prepare your taxes your best bet is to open a form called the What-If worksheet and put in your projected post retirement income numbers.... for the year that your retire and for the first full year of retirement. Like others have posted... once you see the results you may be doing this...

If you use other software then they may have some similar functionality.

If you don't prepare your own taxes you could either see if your tax preparer can do it using their software or you can use TaxCaster available for free online.

Also, be cognizant of state income taxes... my state income tax bill commonly exceeds my federal income tax bill in retirement.

If your taxable account investments are in equities, then if your income is low enough (12% tax bracket or lower) then qualified dividends and long-term taxable gains are tax free... and international equities can actually have a negative tax rate as foreign tax credits exceed ordinary income tax on non-qualified dividends.

Due to these complications, you really need to do a pro forma return to get a good read on what your post retirement taxes will be.

I will use that Taxcaster to run a few calculations later today when I have more time.

I had not even thought about long term taxable gains being tax free with a lower tax rate. That will help a lot.

Most of what I have is long term index fund investments, with a few stocks I hold long term. I have some I trade buying and selling every few months, which I consider a gamble, though I am pretty good at it. That is always less than 5-10 percent of my entire Roth and non-Roth portfolios.

 

[pb4uski]

..... Most of what I have is long term index fund investments, with a few stocks I hold long term. I have some I trade buying and selling every few months, which I consider a gamble, though I am pretty good at it. That is always less than 5-10 percent of my entire Roth and non-Roth portfolios.

If these long-term index funds are equities (all or most of dividends are qualified dividends... you can tell by looking at the 1099s or page 1 of your Form 1040 then they will be tax-free if you keep your taxable income under $38,600 (in 2018... increases for inflation). If from bond funds then the dividends will not be tax-free. All LTCG will be tax-free regardless of whether from equity or bond funds as long as taxable income is less than $38,600.

See https://www.kitces.com/blog/underst...st-capital-gains-for-a-free-step-up-in-basis/

 

[cathy63]

I don't understand how a reduction in the tax rate tables will cause your tax rate to go up. What business deductions can an employee take in 2017 that they can't take in 2018?

All the deductions that were subject to the 2% AGI floor are gone. In addition to tax prep and investment expenses, that includes home office expenses, dues for unions and other professional associations, journal subscriptions, business and malpractice insurance, uniforms, tools and supplies, unreimbursed travel and entertainment and vehicle expenses, etc.

OP says he is a single person who is making $100K and taking $30K in deductions plus $4K in exemptions for 2017. Unless he has large medical expenses, he's now limited to the $12K standard deduction and no exemption, so his taxable income has increased by $22K.

2017 tax = $13,240
2018 tax = $15,410

 

[pb4uski]

So the OP would be best to approach his employer and renegotiate his comp where he gets paid less but also gets expense reimbursement for certain business expenses or have them provided by the employer.... the net impact on the employer can be neutral ($100k expense that is fully deductible but say, $70 as comp and $30k as reimbursed employee business expenses) but the OP will have less taxable income... effectively sidestepping the change in deductibility of those items.

IIRC, some employers are considering such changes for W-2 "statutory" employees.

 

[kgtest]

Employees can no longer deduct mileage, promotional items (such as logoed advertisement items given to clients), home office deductions (even if employer requires that we work from home) and things like that.

Not married. Do not plan to fully retire. Plan to scale back slowly as mentioned in original post.

This one really hurts DW...and in turn the family. Social worker who offices out of her home helping the absolute neediest of people. Now she won't be able to help as much and certainly wont be driving as much.

 

[pb4uski]

Her employer doesn't reimburse for mileage?