That ship has sailed, what will happen to these folks?

[2B]

I was surprised at this (that 60 per), but it must be true haha. We RE'ers can probably not worry that the employed cohort (is that a term usable here?) is coming after our $ just yet.

It's the 40% that aren't working that we have to worry about. They want more free stuff.

 

[Milton]

I mostly worry about my family…. Their mentality thinks they deserve what I worked and saved for regardless of of the choices they made in life or how they spent their time. They don't even want to hear any details of anything, they just want the money.

The Philip Reardens of the world.

All I can say is that I am so very glad I did not cosign that loan.

Never cosign a loan: there is simply no upside. If you want to give money to a friend or relative, do so; but do not provide personal guarantees.

 

[MissMolly]

Here is an article that says 60 percent of people 65 and older are working full time: The anti-retirement plan: Working 9-to-5 past 65 - The Washington Post



I was surprised at this (that 60 per), but it must be true haha. We RE'ers can probably not worry that the employed cohort (is that a term usable here?) is coming after our $ just yet.

I don't read this as 60% of all people over 65 are are working full time. It says "60% of WORKERS" which I read as of those folks over 65 who are working, 60% of them are working full time - which is different from 60% of ALL over 65 are working full time.

 

[ArkTinkerer]

I don't worry about such people … they are healthy adults and responsible for their own decisions, and there is nothing I can - or should - do to protect them from their choices.

Nor do I secretly feel smug about my own relative wealth.

Looking at how many people here want to run Firecalc and get a 100% success rate and then still worry and OMY repeatedly, I wonder how many here built up their nest eggs because they are actually insecure about their wealth. I know I worry about such things too much.

 

[robnplunder]

Looking at how many people here want to run Firecalc and get a 100% success rate and then still worry and OMY repeatedly, I wonder how many here built up their nest eggs because they are actually insecure about their wealth. I know I worry about such things too much.

A lot, based on my observation. But that's probably why they are FIRE in the 1st place.

As I have said earlier in the thread, people around me who didn't save enough seems to find ways to survive (and still enjoy life I might add). People who lived well and didn't save much for retirement will probably go through tougher adjustment (and be miserable).

 

[razztazz]

... I wonder how many here built up their nest eggs because they are actually insecure about their wealth. I know I worry about such things too much.

I worry about it all the time but I don't think it's too much. I grew up with ignorant stupid adults who had steady jobs but still griped about never having any money and were always on the verge of losing everything. And, as I mentioned in another thread, one of those adults used to borrow "Five till payday" from me. That would be about $35 bucks today. Know any 10 yr olds nowadays who can spot you $35 bucks? Then I segued into adulthood as double digit inflation and double digit unemployment were ramping up. My formative years.

And because some of my net worth is in the form of military retirement pay and TriCare I am always on the lookout for those who think I am one of "The Haves" we, as a nation, can no longer afford and who is responsible for everyone else being a "Have Not".

So, yes, I worry about it a little.

 

[Bestwifeever]

I don't read this as 60% of all people over 65 are are working full time. It says "60% of WORKERS" which I read as of those folks over 65 who are working, 60% of them are working full time - which is different from 60% of ALL over 65 are working full time.

Of course you are right--under the weather here with an 8-week-old cold, my reading skills are not up to par.

 

[ArkTinkerer]

--under the weather here with an 8-week-old cold...

Does this tie in with the sig line "Having a big head..."?

 

[MissMolly]

Of course you are right--under the weather here with an 8-week-old cold, my reading skills are not up to par.

So sorry to hear about the cold. They can really fog your brain Hope you're better soon. 8 weeks is a long time for a cold.

 

[Chuckanut]

Now she lives on SS and a small PT $9/hr job. She seems happy with a nice (small but brand new) house in The Villages, FL and a new convertible Miata. The extensive travel has been completely eliminated, though.

I have no idea how she pays for it all, but she always figures it out!

I know a number of people who confuse being able to successfully juggle various debts and bills with solid financial planning.

 

[nash031]

Yes, even the kids are helping these destitute families escape poverty; some as young as 8 years old working side by side with the others. These industrious people are known to work 80-100 hour weeks that propel them out of poverty twice as fast! And why should the masses waste their time on vacations when they could be working instead! We in the U.S. can only hope we aspire to these great models of Capitalism! Yes, I agree, as a people we generally lack perspective.

Perhaps you need to re-read my post. That part where I talk about 8hr days at certain wages? Maybe you missed that? Are there places where workers are exploited overseas? Absolutely. Is it everyone everywhere in every country? Certainly not.

 

[youbet]

In your wider circle, is ER planning common or do you stand alone?

ER planning is extremely common in my wider circle. Folks are having various levels of success as family decisions, career dynamics, the eonomy, health and other life factors step in. But ER planning is typical and hopefully it'll work out OK for all.

 

[Walt34]

Know any 10 yr olds nowadays who can spot you $35 bucks?

I know an 8-year-old who can spot you a couple hundred and she'll charge you interest on it too! I think she's going to do very well in life....

 

[highlow65]

A friend brought up his 401k with company match while we were with a group playing cards, it went over like a wet fart. Money is still a taboo topic among my group, I keep quiet about it.

 

[davismills]

I used to spend a portion of summers at my grandfather's farm in North Carolina. He had electricity, but no indoor "toilet". He cut wood for heat, cooking, etc. He had no TV, internet, Roku, email, ....you get the picture.
Fast forward 50 years...I've got a former co-worker that walks into work with a $5.00 Starbucks coffee griping about her $150.00 electric bill. That's $5.00 per day for not cutting wood for heat and cooking. Her computers, Roku, internet stay on 24/7 for this rate. Having lived the "tough" life 40 years ago, I consider this $150.00 per month a great deal. Am I missing something? BTW: Her toilet is in the house for an extra $1.00 per day as well. The obvious seems to be much clearer the more I age.

 

[MooreBonds]

Looking at how many people here want to run Firecalc and get a 100% success rate and then still worry and OMY repeatedly, I wonder how many here built up their nest eggs because they are actually insecure about their wealth. I know I worry about such things too much.

A few points:

1) 100% success in Firecalc for a 30-year retirement is just for 30 years. Increase it to 40 or 45 years and your 'success rate' artificially increases, because it has fewer periods to check against. So you can't somehow magically spend more over a 40-45 year retirement than a 30-year retirement. If you can't spend more, then you obviously must spend either the same or less. And even within a 100% success rate for 30 years, that includes more than just 1 sequence where you end with just a few hundred dollars after year 30. Many retiring in their 30s/40s, or even 50s, want to be able to rest easy for 40-50 straight years knowing that they can enjoy a 40-50 year retirement without any likely problems.

2) It may really be different this time. In all previous times when the interest rates were this absurdly low, equities were yielding 4% OR MORE. The S&P 500 is yielding a paltry sub-2%. In the past, even though bonds were yielding essentially zero you still had good dividends from stocks. That isn't the case currently. This would warrant perhaps more caution on the part of the risk-averse and studious ER-wannabe.

 

[dunkelblau]

A few points:

1) 100% success in Firecalc for a 30-year retirement is just for 30 years. Increase it to 40 or 45 years and your 'success rate' artificially increases, because it has fewer periods to check against. So you can't somehow magically spend more over a 40-45 year retirement than a 30-year retirement. If you can't spend more, then you obviously must spend either the same or less. And even within a 100% success rate for 30 years, that includes more than just 1 sequence where you end with just a few hundred dollars after year 30. Many retiring in their 30s/40s, or even 50s, want to be able to rest easy for 40-50 straight years knowing that they can enjoy a 40-50 year retirement without any likely problems.

2) It may really be different this time. In all previous times when the interest rates were this absurdly low, equities were yielding 4% OR MORE. The S&P 500 is yielding a paltry sub-2%. In the past, even though bonds were yielding essentially zero you still had good dividends from stocks. That isn't the case currently. This would warrant perhaps more caution on the part of the risk-averse and studious ER-wannabe.

WILLIAM BERNSTEIN: "So if you can live on, say, 1.5% of your nest egg ($15,000 a year of a million dollar portfolio), you’re all set. And if you need more, you’re going to have to choose among part-time retirement work, giving up on hitting the beach at 50, and taking industrial-grade risk with a higher burn rate."
The Real Math on Retiring Early - The Experts - WSJ

For those whose ship has sailed, I imagine the industrial-grade blue pill may be the only choice.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

WILLIAM BERNSTEIN: "So if you can live on, say, 1.5% of your nest egg ($15,000 a year of a million dollar portfolio), you’re all set. And if you need more, you’re going to have to choose among part-time retirement work, giving up on hitting the beach at 50, and taking industrial-grade risk with a higher burn rate."
The Real Math on Retiring Early - The Experts - WSJ

For those whose ship has sailed, I imagine the industrial-grade blue pill may be the only choice.

Good article, thanks for the link. I found it odd that he didn't mention SS and pensions. One could have a higher SWR at 50 with SS / pensions kicking in at 65 or before, especially if SS and pensions alone were enough to retire on.

 

[Milton]

WILLIAM BERNSTEIN: "So if you can live on, say, 1.5% of your nest egg ($15,000 a year of a million dollar portfolio), you’re all set. And if you need more, you’re going to have to choose among part-time retirement work, giving up on hitting the beach at 50, and taking industrial-grade risk with a higher burn rate."
The Real Math on Retiring Early - The Experts - WSJ

It's unclear to me how a neurologist is an "expert" in mathematics, or for that matter any subject other than neurology. But I digress.

An alternative choice that he fails to mention is the option of ER built upon a portfolio of >$1 million. Admittedly this will not be possible for everyone, but it is well within the grasp of those who earn a decent income and practice LBYM.

 

[Major Tom]

An alternative choice that he fails to mention is the option of ER built upon a portfolio of >$1 million. Admittedly this will not be possible for everyone, but it is well within the grasp of those who earn a decent income and practice LBYM.

What does the actual dollar value of the portfolio matter? His point was that anyone who is able to live on a WR of 1.5% is in good shape. His example of $15,000 out of a 1 million dollar portfolio was just an example. Or am I missing something?

 

[ProspectiveBum]

What does the actual dollar value of the portfolio matter? His point was that anyone who is able to live on a WR of 1.5% is in good shape. His example of $15,000 out of a 1 million dollar portfolio was just an example. Or am I missing something?

No, that's how I read it, too.

 

[Cut-Throat]

What does the actual dollar value of the portfolio matter? His point was that anyone who is able to live on a WR of 1.5% is in good shape. His example of $15,000 out of a 1 million dollar portfolio was just an example. Or am I missing something?

I think if someone is fearful enough of the future that he/she would plan a 1.5% WR, would be much better served by an annuity. In fact this is advocated by Bill Berstein as well.

 

[Major Tom]

I think if someone is fearful enough of the future that he/she would plan a 1.5% WR, would be much better served by an annuity. In fact this is advocated by Bill Berstein as well.

Except that an annuity doesn't give you the option to adjust your WR upwards in the future if the feared worst-case scenario doesn't occur.

 

[Totoro]

1.5% is plain silly and bad advice.

30-year TIPS yield 1%. Even if you assume it's 0% you have a US federal garantueed financial reserve of 66 years.

If you retire at age 44 you can live up to 110 years old with that withdrawal rate.

Even 2.0% is for most of us here plenty conservative (50 years cash reserve - or retire at 60 with zero real return).

 

[Cut-Throat]

Except that an annuity doesn't give you the option to adjust your WR upwards in the future if the feared worst-case scenario doesn't occur.

When do you know in the 'Future' that the 'worst-case scenario' didn't occur?