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The Economy in 2013
Old 01-12-2013, 12:51 PM   #1
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The Economy in 2013

Here are 12 subjects (questions) covering the economy, from Bill McBride's Calculated Risk. After reading the prognostications, I think he's wrong on at least 4 conclusions or premises. That said, the article posits the major influences, and outlines the factors.
At the least, things to watch for as the markets proceed.

Here are some thoughts on the economy in 2013:
• Question #1 for 2013: US Fiscal Policy
• Question #2 for 2013: Will the U.S. economy grow in 2013?
• Question #3 for 2013: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2013?
• Question #4 for 2013: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2013?
• Question #5 for 2013: Will the inflation rate rise or fall in 2013?
• Question #6 for 2013: What will happen with Monetary Policy and QE3?
• Question #7 for 2013: What will happen with house prices in 2013?
• Question #8 for 2013: Will Housing inventory bottom in 2013?
• Question #9 for 2013: How much will Residential Investment increase?
• Question #10 for 2013: Europe and the Euro
Calculated Risk: Summary for Week Ending January 11th

Most of the financial sites that I go to, don't seem to think the political situation will change markedly in the coming year, and that the government will not make major changes in course.

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Old 01-12-2013, 08:42 PM   #2
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It's hard to predict things, especially about the future.

Unless you want to be a speculator or a trader, not an investor, does any of that matter?

My take on 2013 is that
a) interest rates will remain low for the year (my only prognostication). Not a good year to buy an annuity. And,
b) have a diversified AA and stay the course.

Except for a little Wellesley, I am still 100% equities, roughly 50/50 US/non-US (actually a little more US weight, by accident), and have no plans to change.
my bumpersticker:
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