S&P not quite 10%(1817) but close enough for me. Been waiting for this over 6mo
+1What did you wait for?
It is still higher than it was 6 months ago plus missing dividend. We need to below 1800.
And we may or may not.
A possibility. The question mark for me is how long the Saudis can withstand lower prices before it starts to undermine their ability to keep their oppressed population sweet with lots of domestic spending. I have a funny feeling that within 6 months we will see oil prices back over $90/bbl. If ISIS gets completely out of hand, the Saudi border is pretty close to where they are now. Oil prices could become sensitized to political events again.
In the meantime, lower oil prices are a stimulant to the US economy and poison to Putin's ambitions. If he thought the sanctions would not matter, taking away the oil earnings that Russia was counting on will put paid to that.
Audrey, you are a sharp cookie!A 10% or more correction can happen at any time for no reason at all, other than it was maybe "due" or whatever. A 20% sell off is not a correction, but a bear market and usually doesn't happen unless there is an economic contraction/recession. You are best off setting up an averaging in program to reach your desired AA.
Some time ago I read a great book premised on the idea that pronouns are the window onto someone's unconscious framing. For example, who is this "we" used by the above poster and many other posters, pundits, writers, etc?It is still higher than it was 6 months ago plus missing dividend. We need to go below 1800.
And we may or may not.
CNBC said the Saudis may be willing to let prices fall or stay low to hurt other producers. For instance, Venezuela badly needs higher prices while Saudis have wells that cost as little as $5-10 per barrel of oil.
OHTH, oil sands in Canada may cost more like $100 per barrel of oil while the Bakken may be more in the range of $50-80 per barrel.
I am [-]stubbornly[/-] sticking to my plan of rebalancing only once a year.
What I was hinting at is there is effectively a huge embedded cost to oil production in Saudi in the form of necessary high social spending to keep the populace quiet. Over the medium to long term, if the Saudis do not make enough from oil earnings they are in deep trouble because they will not be able to nip unrest in the bud by basically bribe the populace.
What did you wait for?
It is still higher than it was 6 months ago plus missing dividend. We need to go below 1800.
And we may or may not.
Being a long-term holder of passive index funds, my "strategy" mainly involves not checking my balance on days like this, and waiting until we've had a few up days before checking again.
Hopefully we'll actually have a few up days, or I'll have to brace myself before logging in
... Sure it's timing, and looked at as a no no...
I am hoping for a decisive correction. I want to see mass capitulation. I want to see grown men cry. That's my cue to time this market.
A big problem of having a wide rebalancing band is that one misses all the fun and excitement, "don't just stand there, do something!" Before all the current (modest) mayhem I was sitting at equities at 54.1% wondering what I would sell if they hit my upper limit of 55%. Then I just checked and with all the fun of the last few days equities are at 52.4%. Jezz, nothing to do until they get to to the lower limit of 45%. You timing guys have all the fun!
Wait until stock brokers start jumping out of buildings?
I am hoping for a decisive correction. I want to see mass capitulation. I want to see grown men cry. That's my cue to time this market.
A big problem of having a wide rebalancing band is that one misses all the fun and excitement, "don't just stand there, do something!" Before all the current (modest) mayhem I was sitting at equities at 54.1% wondering what I would sell if they hit my upper limit of 55%. Then I just checked and with all the fun of the last few days equities are at 52.4%. Jezz, nothing to do until they get to to the lower limit of 45%. You timing guys have all the fun!
As many times as I caught that falling knife in 2008, I'm happy to have wider bands now.
But I always end up doing some rebalancing in Jan anyway when I withdraw.
I was thinking something similar. I noticed that even on an ugly day like today a few of the more badly battered things I own or watch are starting to move up. This also looks like a day to collect profits on treasuries. I liquidated much of a stake in a leveraged treasury ETF today.
The laughable thing is that even as everyone is selling and running around with their hair on fire, unemployment claims just came in at a 14 year low, industrial production spiked, and capacity utilization is now at 79.3% - just a hair shy of the 80% and up level that typically starts sparking heavy capex spending. Sounds terrible, doesn't it?
Setting a wider band for rebalancing means you think that lets you buy closer to the "bottom", which is a form of market timing because you do have a certain expectation.
PS. Basically, we all understand the risk/reward trade-off of investments, and that includes every asset, just not stocks. Rebalancers or market timers both believe the risk/reward trade-off of investments change with price, but they act on that price movement with different mechanisms.