The Market is Now Fairly Valued

[ziggy29]

Yes, I hear ya... I can see how these can be pretty unsettling times for a newly minted retiree. A gentle up, up, up market would be of benefit to all... wishful thinking, right?

True dat. If it was just a constant, gentle rise in the market, there would be no risk, and with no risk, it would be returning what CDs and Treasuries are.

 

[Dawg52]

A gentle up, up, up market would be of benefit to all... wishful thinking, right?

Yes. Amazing though, as I type this my portfolio is actually up this morning.

You think this guy is worried about a recession?

Marathon hopeful, 101-year-old , training hard - Yahoo! Sports

 

[ziggy29]

You think this guy is worried about a recession?

Marathon hopeful, 101-year-old , training hard - Yahoo! Sports

101?? The guy looks like he's in his 60s.

I like this quote: “If I finish, I’ll do what I always do and have a pint and a fag,” he said. “People ask what is my secret but I haven’t got one. They say fags and booze are bad for you—but I’m still here, aren’t I?”

I guess it's pretty hard for a doctor to tell a 101-year-old to stop doing something because it will kill them.

 

[Razor]

Anyone got him on their dead pool?

 

[audreyh1]

Gosh, the DOW really doesn't want to get below 12,000 , just like the S&P seems to resist going below 1300. With those miserable numbers today, I expected more of a selloff.

I suppose the bad expectations were built in.

Still, it seems like things would get lower.

I keep getting tantalizingly close to my 5% rebalance trigger, but never quite get there.

Staying patient......

Audrey

 

[Razor]

Here it goes now.

 

[W2R]

Here it goes now.

Doggone it. The Dow is in the 11,000's and it's 8 more days until I planned to DCA any more of my inheritance into the market.

I SUPPOSE it would be smartest to follow my plan, despite temptation.

 

[podey]

Doggone it. The Dow is in the 11,000's and it's 8 more days until I planned to DCA any more of my inheritance into the market.

I SUPPOSE it would be smartest to follow my plan, despite temptation.

The temptation is there for sure. I got my bonus today and I am RUNNING to Fidelity this afternoon with a check...

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Doggone it. The Dow is in the 11,000's and it's 8 more days until I planned to DCA any more of my inheritance into the market.

I SUPPOSE it would be smartest to follow my plan, despite temptation.

Well in 8 more days you might be in luck. It could be 8000.

 

[al_bundy]

i might buy some more QID if the SP500 goes below 1270 and the nasdaq goes below whatever the january intraday low was

 

[W2R]

Well in 8 more days you might be in luck. It could be 8000.

Aren't you a cheery spirit today!

I guess it could just as easily be down as up by then. So, I'll (probably) be good and wait.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Aren't you a cheery spirit today!

I guess it could just as easily be down as up by then. So, I'll (probably) be good and wait.

I really have no clue which way the market is heading. Just playing devils advocate

 

[W2R]

I really have no clue which way the market is heading. Just playing devils advocate

I know. I don't have a clue which way it is going, either. Guess both of us need better functioning crystal balls.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

But I do believe in the long term it will go up!

 

[W2R]

But I do believe in the long term it will go up!

I hope you are right! It would be just my luck for the market to go sideways in the long term for the next 40 years.

 

[Art G]

The good news is that the support line for the DJIA is at 11,950 (we need to finish the week above there). The bad news is that the NASDAQ and SPX has already blown through any support it may have had, and small stocks usually lead the big boys up AND down.
If I had a lump sum, I would either DCA it into the market from here or else wait. For my money, I'd rather be late than early. JMO.

 

[Art G]

I hope you are right! It would be just my luck for the market to go sideways in the long term for the next 40 years.

I'm guessing this will fall on deaf ears, but Allianz Vision is the perfect product for a sideways market. Of course, you'd need to decide that for yourself. (I guess I need to get one of those permanent disclaimers in my posts.)

 

[Patrick]

The good news is that the support line for the DJIA is at 11,950 (we need to finish the week above there). The bad news is that the NASDAQ and SPX has already blown through any support it may have had, and small stocks usually lead the big boys up AND down.
If I had a lump sum, I would either DCA it into the market from here or else wait. For my money, I'd rather be late than early. JMO.

I'd at least wait until Helicopter Ben drops the rate another 75 points and the Dow shoots down. There's another big drop up ahead, according to my cubic-zirconia cube. FWIW, YMMV, JMHO, etc.

 

[W2R]

I'm guessing this will fall on deaf ears, but Allianz Vision is the perfect product for a sideways market. Of course, you'd need to decide that for yourself. (I guess I need to get one of those permanent disclaimers in my posts.)

Yep. I'm kind of diehard'ish when it comes to investing (though I do have a bunch in Wellesley but I just plan to DCA some of the rest into equity index funds at this point).

 

[W2R]

I'd at least wait until Helicopter Ben drops the rate another 75 points and the Dow shoots down. There's another big drop up ahead, according to my cubic-zirconia cube. FWIW, YMMV, JMHO, etc.

No wonder my crystal ball isn't working - - obviously I need a cubic-zirconia cube.

I just hope that the market settles down and starts climbing steadily at some point after the elections.

 

[Art G]

I heard this morning on Bloomberg news, they're talking about a 1% drop in March.

 

[ziggy29]

Yep. I'm kind of diehard'ish when it comes to investing (though I do have a bunch in Wellesley but I just plan to DCA some of the rest into equity index funds at this point).

When my dad was diagnosed terminal in 2005, he sold all of his investments in their Vanguard accounts and put everything into a money market fund for my mom (who knows zero about investing and has no inclination to learn).

So last year I started directing the investments for her. Recently I've been DCAing her IRA (about $220K) into a handful of Vanguard funds including Wellesley. I've only moved $50K so far, so if this panic continues I'll be getting better and better entry points for her in the future. It's just about time to move another $10-20K anyway.

 

[W2R]

When my dad was diagnosed terminal in 2005, he sold all of his investments in their Vanguard accounts and put everything into a money market fund for my mom (who knows zero about investing and has no inclination to learn).

So last year I started directing the investments for her. Recently I've been DCAing her IRA (about $220K) into a handful of Vanguard funds including Wellesley. I've only moved $50K so far, so if this panic continues I'll be getting better and better entry points for her in the future. It's just about time to move another $10-20K anyway.

I am sorry to hear about your father.

In my case just went ahead and invested immediately into Wellesley for the percentage planned, since due to the bond fraction in Wellesley, it isn't as volatile as the equity funds can be. I am DCA'ing into Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) and Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index (VFWIX). When the final 1/3rd of my inheritance is distributed, hopefully this summer, I will have an opportunity to reassess and tweak or add funds if desired.

 

[ziggy29]

In my case just went ahead and invested immediately into Wellesley for the percentage planned, since due to the bond fraction in Wellesley, it isn't as volatile as the equity funds can be. I am DCA'ing into Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) and Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index (VFWIX). When the final 1/3rd of my inheritance is distributed, hopefully this summer, I will have an opportunity to reassess and tweak or add funds if desired.

I'm being more cautious than I'd normally be. Mom is very unlikely to ever need this money, but it will ultimately be part of an inheritance shared between myself and three siblings. Since it's not just her or me being impacted by the results, I'm erring on the side of being a bit conservative with it.

 

[laurence]

I've become the semi-pro financial advisor at work for about a half a dozen people who are nearing retirement (2-5 years), semi-pro cuz I'm "semi-paid" . Over the last couple of years I've gotten them out of crappy variable annuities and overly risky investments with high fees and costs and into Vanguard funds - principally Wellesly and Wellington. The other day when a couple of them were concerned I was able to show them where they would have been compared to where they are and they felt a lot better. That bond and dividend aspect really helps smooth the bumps out and keep them calm, too. I've got another friend at work who despite wanting to retire in 5 years is still gambling on the high risk end of the market. I've got her to agree to meeting with me to change her allocation and put future contributions into less risky investments, and now I'm working to move her existing portfolio into a more conservative alignment. Problem is, with the huge drop recently, I don't want to "lock in" losses.