24601NoMore
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Dec 8, 2015
- Messages
- 1,166
For those who think we are "not in a recession" because NBER hasn't "officially" declared one...
1/13 Is Big Tech signaling a pending collapse in the office market, as well as the job market? Let's explore; firstly, $AMZN recently announced it's halting construction on 5 office towers in Bellevue WA, w/ a 6th that was planned for construction canceled. $AMZN also put...
Great thread at..
Incidentally, the jobs market is a lagging indicator and not typically looked at to determine if we are in a recession. (That aside, job openings to call back those jobs lost due to COVID shutdowns are not "job gains" anyway). Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP - which we are almost certain to have once the "official" numbers are released Thursday, has been called a Recession from time immoral. Attempts to change the definition are unfortunate and will mislead / bamboozle many, and will likely cost a lot of people a lot of money.
Regardless, I heard a really good take earlier today.."a recession is a contraction in economic activity". Few of us could think we don't have a strong contraction in economic activity at present. Every indicator out there is SCREAMING recession based on traditional, "non-spun" definitions.
Invest accordingly.
ETA - as I write this..Alphabet - missed revenues and earnings. MSFT - missed revenues and earnings. Even Walmart - missed earnings. The economy is contracting, regardless of any happy talk to the contrary by those motivated to spin things otherwise.
I unfortunately didn't sell "everything" at SPX 4,600+. If we get back to 4,500 anytime soon, I plan to. Because the odds are high, IMHO, that we'll see SPX with the first digit being a "2" this year at some point. And with forecast equity returns of ~2% for the next 10+ years..Cash at ~4+% guaranteed is looking to be the superior investment for a long while.
1/13 Is Big Tech signaling a pending collapse in the office market, as well as the job market? Let's explore; firstly, $AMZN recently announced it's halting construction on 5 office towers in Bellevue WA, w/ a 6th that was planned for construction canceled. $AMZN also put...
Great thread at..
Incidentally, the jobs market is a lagging indicator and not typically looked at to determine if we are in a recession. (That aside, job openings to call back those jobs lost due to COVID shutdowns are not "job gains" anyway). Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP - which we are almost certain to have once the "official" numbers are released Thursday, has been called a Recession from time immoral. Attempts to change the definition are unfortunate and will mislead / bamboozle many, and will likely cost a lot of people a lot of money.
Regardless, I heard a really good take earlier today.."a recession is a contraction in economic activity". Few of us could think we don't have a strong contraction in economic activity at present. Every indicator out there is SCREAMING recession based on traditional, "non-spun" definitions.
Invest accordingly.
ETA - as I write this..Alphabet - missed revenues and earnings. MSFT - missed revenues and earnings. Even Walmart - missed earnings. The economy is contracting, regardless of any happy talk to the contrary by those motivated to spin things otherwise.
I unfortunately didn't sell "everything" at SPX 4,600+. If we get back to 4,500 anytime soon, I plan to. Because the odds are high, IMHO, that we'll see SPX with the first digit being a "2" this year at some point. And with forecast equity returns of ~2% for the next 10+ years..Cash at ~4+% guaranteed is looking to be the superior investment for a long while.
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