The market isn't as bad as it seems?

[Ephemerides]

FUEGO,
what if a certain dry lake suddenly refilled? Would you worry then?

 

[FUEGO]

FUEGO,
what if a certain dry lake suddenly refilled? Would you worry then?

Not sure I understand what you are getting at?? Are you saying would I worry if liquidity returned (the dry lake being the lack of liquidity)?

This time it might be different. Or it might not be different.

 

[audreyh1]

I think he's talking about the California Central Valley maybe?

Audrey

 

[BluesWannabe]

Like some others here, I have been rebalancing during this downturn... I am holding my nose, but it has to be done during all market cycles, not just up markets...

That said, as I click the Buy button, it's a queasy feeling since I "know" the market is going lower....

 

[Rustic23]

I thought this was a good article

As Dire as the Times May Seem, History Isn't About to Repeat Itself - WSJ.com

 

[ziggy29]

Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?

 

[al_bundy]

Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?

for the last few weeks it's been the end of the world trade. oil down, gold up, t-bills yields way way down

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

You should know part of the cause Zig...oil is still dropping like a rock and it was a big piece of the inflation boost we've had over the past 3 quarters.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow, TIPS are getting murdered worse than stocks today. TIP (the ETF) is down 3.3%. Is the market changing its mind about inflation and instead fearing deflation now?

Ummm - yep! But it's also due to the "flight to quality" (i.e. US Treasuries) that happens when financial eruptions occur.

Audrey

P.S. Right! You should know by now that it's all your fault ziggy!

 

[W2R]

You should know part of the cause Zig...oil is still dropping like a rock and it was a big piece of the inflation boost we've had over the past 3 quarters.

Poor Ziggy!!! What ever happened to the Law of Supply and Demand?

 

[haha]

over the last year i've seen a chart that shows NYSE leverage going back to the late 1960's. 1973, 2000 and 2007 were the peaks in leverage and it took 2 years of a bear market to deleverage from the peaks.

What do you mean by NYSE leverage? Margin balances?

ha

 

[audreyh1]

Can we say that we are already 1 year into that bear market? 1/2 down, 1/2 to go?

Audrey

 

[al_bundy]

margin balances along with the leverage of the big banks, hedge funds, etc. total leverage

Safe Haven | NYSE Margin Debt Shows More Selling Ahead

there was a similar article earlier this year with a chart going back to the 1960s. you'll have to search for it

 

[dex]

Can we say that we are already 1 year into that bear market? 1/2 down, 1/2 to go?
Audrey

Sounds about right to me. 1550 to 1000 1 year.

If you think 800 is the bottom - we might get there quicker than 1 year - maybe by the end of the year - then slowly up from there?

 

[2B]

Sounds about right to me. 1550 to 1000 1 year.

If you think 800 is the bottom - we might get there quicker than 1 year - maybe by the end of the year - then slowly up from there?

Hell, at the rate we're falling we'll be there next week.

 

[audreyh1]

Sure doesn't seem like it would be hard to get to 800 from here the way things have been going lately. Sure has been looking to me like a V pattern.

Audrey

 

[unclemick]

Ya know I might just watch a KC Chief's game to take my mind off all this.



Full auto RMD(equivalent) to Prime MM to local bank ATM. Plus full auto rebalancing/asset class adjustment with age in Target Retirement.

Hmmm - turn off the sound or close my eyes if it gets really bad.

heh heh heh - North of 3% SEC yield is livable but up is way more fun than down and RTM is never fast enough.

 

[2B]

So far it looks like an "I" pattern.

 

[Dawg52]

Sure doesn't seem like it would be hard to get to 800 from here the way things have been going lately. Sure has been looking to me like a V pattern.

Audrey

I'm ready for the right side of the V to develop.

 

[FIREd]

Wow, did anybody look at Vanguard funds' YTD returns as of tonight? It is ugly... I am not going to post them here in case some of you guys would rather not know...

 

[2B]

I'm down just over 23% YTD and that's starting with 40% fixed/cash. Barf.

 

[chinaco]

Where is the bottom? 40% off the S&P or DOW, or are we looking at 50%?

 

[2B]

GD-I was about 90% so we have a long way to go.

Cramer says to sell into any rally, raise cash and be ready to get in when prices recover.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

And I'm sure he's going to tell us just before that happens.

At least four or five times.

 

[W2R]

Where is the bottom? 40% off the S&P or DOW, or are we looking at 50%?

Let me check my crystal ball on that one.... Oh, drat, it's not working today!! Guess I don't have the answer.

I am still hanging on for the rest of this roller coaster ride, and my knuckles are beginning to get a little white. With my ultra-conservative AA I really didn't expect to be losing six figures in less than a month like this.