The Official DOW and S&P, 2015 Prediction Thread

[audreyh1]

DOW 19,800
S&P 500 2300

Wild ass guess, throwing darts, etc.

 

[NgineER]

Dow: 20456
s&p 500: 2276

 

[Niuatoputapu]

I'll play

DOW 18,700
NASDAQ 4,850
S&P 500 2,150
10-Year 3.00%
Gold $1,200
Oil $65
$CAD $0.95

 

[JPatrick]

Dow will finish at 18714
S&P at 2202
__________________

 

[fanmail]

S&p = 2151.5

 

[Dog]

Hmmm.....I think this coming year will be the one that tests my ER resolve (ER'd in Aug.). I'll jump in and guess:


19,600 DOW
2,110 S&P

 

[6miths]

Everything looks pretty rosy. I'm going with 16500 and 1800.

+1

I'll go with 16501 and 1801. Lol. Oh wait, Price is Right rules not in effect!

 

[piranha]

My guesses:

Dow: 19,700
S&P: 2,300

 

[kgtest]

Definitely bought some XOM today...when seven analysts say BUY, I buy...lol. I did enjoy our cheap gas prices, now its time to reinvest those dividends.

Still trying to figure out where to put the other cash stash.

DJI 19,500 S&P 2250.

Unless we have a strong first quarter and GDP sustains with low jobs numbers, then I will be back to revise my estimate higher provided there are no global catastrophes, bad weather, and just about anything else you could think of.

I think I want to revise my estimate already, based on some new knowledge. Politics aside (which is impossible as politics do affect markets). in years where there is a Dem Pres and Rep Senate, avg returns have been 21.3% (years 1961 to 2010).

With that in mind, I am going to already revise my estimate up on the S&P500: 2497.4 when the bell rings Dec 31, 2015.

Let's hope I win !

What Happens to the Stock Market in an Election Year?

 

[RockyMtn]

Dow....20150
S & P...2015

After all it is 2015!

 

[kcowan]

Wow - well they are quite optimistic on the oil prices, IMO.

Recognize that these predictions were all made 12 months ago! I will post the current ones after the 2015 deadline.

For 2014, the category winners with forecasts were:
DOW avrex 17800
GOLD dubmac 1175
OIL HaroldCrump 82
all very close except for OIL!

 

[audreyh1]

I think I want to revise my estimate already, based on some new knowledge. Politics aside (which is impossible as politics do affect markets). in years where there is a Dem Pres and Rep Senate, avg returns have been 21.3% (years 1961 to 2010).

With that in mind, I am going to already revise my estimate up on the S&P500: 2497.4 when the bell rings Dec 31, 2015.

Let's hope I win !

What Happens to the Stock Market in an Election Year?

I think that article wa written at the start of 2012, and needs some serious updating.

 

[audreyh1]

Recognize that these predictions were all made 12 months ago! I will post the current ones after the 2015 deadline.

No, I did not realize that. I thought is was current!

 

[N02L84ER]

My crystal ball for 2015 says DOW 16700 and S&P 1870. Most years it is wrong and I seriously hope it continues to be wrong based on these guesses.

 

[mickeyd]

I only predict the S&P 500 ending quote. I do not follow Mr. Dow's number.


I always use the 5% bump up rule ~add 5% to the 12/31/XX number.

2161.85

 

[KMyer]

I may have been too optimistic when I posted on this thread.

Will we be able to make up some lost ground in the last quarter and finish strong?


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[GravitySucks]

So, how close was your guess? Mine was way off.

 

[audreyh1]

DOW 19,800
S&P 500 2300

Wild ass guess, throwing darts, etc.

Wow - I was way off too.

Now I wonder how long it will be before we finally see those numbers?

 

[audreyh1]

Dow....20150
S & P...2015

After all it is 2015!

Ironically - this is the closest on the S&P500 which finished at 2044.

Too optimistic for the DOW though!

 

[audreyh1]

My crystal ball for 2015 says DOW 16700 and S&P 1870. Most years it is wrong and I seriously hope it continues to be wrong based on these guesses.

Is this the closest for DOW?

 

[ejman]

Well, since we humans seem to be trend confirming creatures I would expect that guesses for next year will be too low... (or so I hope)

 

[GravitySucks]

This is fun. I'm going to play the contrarian and say 16,800 for the DOW and 1,978
for the S&P, but just wait for the rocket ride of 2016!

I think Cooch is closest on the Dow

 

[clifp]

I was expecting about a 10% correction this year, so both the Dow and S&P finished about 7% above my forecast so I guess I should be happy.

BTW, dividends will make the S&P and Dows total return positive this year.

 

[audreyh1]

I think Cooch is closest on the Dow

Oops - missed that one!

 

[audreyh1]

I was expecting about a 10% correction this year, so both the Dow and S&P finished about 7% above my forecast so I guess I should be happy.

BTW, dividends will make the S&P and Dows total return positive this year.

Just barely! At least on the S&P500!