Inflation % Prediction for 2023 Year End

[38Chevy454]

We have the S&P 500 prediction thread, how about one for the inflation rate by end of 2023? As we know the market does not equal the economy.

Use the official US govt published number (based on CPI-U). Also the 12 month avg rate, not the Dec 2023 monthly rate. I know that the actual 2023 year end result won't be available until mid Jan 2024. We don't have the current 2022 year end result as of this initial post, but it is currently 7.1% for the 12 month avg based on Nov 2022 results.

No poll. Just your prediction number. What do you think inflation will be by year end?

My prediction is 5.1% as I think recession next year will slow down inflation.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

5%

 

[Car-Guy]

I'll go with 4.5% for all of 2023.

 

[GravitySucks]

5% as well.

 

[DektolMan]

I'm guessing 6.1% for 2023.

 

[Go-NoGo]

3.9% by end of 2023

 

[Dreamer]

5.3%

 

[dmpi]

5%

 

[audreyh1]

3.5%

I think inflation could get down to 3.5% by year end. Not to the Fed’s goal steady 2% so they’ll keep the rates high. But it will be much improved.

This is based on how much inflation has already dropped over the past 6 months.

 

[Jimonlimon]

4.25%

I don’t think it will be consistent though.

 

[Sojourner]

4.84%

I like palindromic numbers.

 

[Gumby]

2.5%

 

[Montecfo]

It is already down to about 2% based on recent run rate. I will say 2.8 percent by year end just to pick a number that no one has.

But that may be the annual number very soon if recent trends continue.

 

[Toast]

3.35%

 

[aja8888]

4.5%

 

[GenXguy]

4.6% CPI, although true inflation will actually be even higher as always.

 

[MichaelB]

Full year 2023, 4.75%. For the last couple of months 2.5% annualized.

 

[Speed Racer]

4.1%

 

[Trailwalker]

4.99%

 

[HI Bill]

4.5%

 

[Tom57]

10.6% to be contrary.

 

[CDRE]

3.14

 

[Chuckanut]

3.14159%

Trying to figure out this year's probable inflation rate had me going around in circles. I see that others had the same problem.

 

[troutnut1]

21% or more. Massive counterfeiting by our government will devalue our currency. Buy anything you want now. It will cost a lot more later.

 

[Walt34]

I'll take a dice roll at 4.5%.