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Two views of the future
Old 12-10-2011, 11:30 AM   #1
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Two views of the future

Interesting article with a (predicatably) provocative opener.
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Somebody is going to be proved wrong in 2012 and will lose a lot of money. Either the bullion market or the Treasury bond market is mistaken about the long-term inflationary outlook.
Finance: Two views of the future | The Economist

I was also reading The World in 2012, a special issue from The Economist, recently. That looked pretty bleak and they didn't mince words with their predictions for recessions in 2012, we'll see.
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Old 12-10-2011, 11:47 AM   #2
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My money is on them both doing poorly. If we have modest inflation in the 3-4% range, bonds will lose money and I think gold will have a hard time justifying its current value.

I'd rather buy commodities I need than gold. I think I'd fill my basement with cans of Campbell's Chunky soup over investing in gold or treasuries right now
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Old 12-10-2011, 11:53 AM   #3
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That article's author makes the mistake of directly linking gold prices with inflation. Gold correlates better with real return than inflation. Historically gold increases in price when real return rates are low, or negative, as they are now.
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Old 12-10-2011, 03:17 PM   #4
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About 90% of financial pundits seem to get every major movement wrong. And the 10% in the money are unpredictable - one time they get it, the next time they miss it.
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Old 12-10-2011, 03:55 PM   #5
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About 90% of financial pundits seem to get every major movement wrong. And the 10% in the money are unpredictable - one time they get it, the next time they miss it.
And they nevertheless spend the rest of their lives being touted as the one who "called" the crash or whatever, even if they haven't been right since...
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Old 12-10-2011, 03:59 PM   #6
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I'd rather buy commodities I need than gold. I think I'd fill my basement with cans of Campbell's Chunky soup over investing in gold or treasuries right now
As an investment strategy, I'd like to fill my cupboard with college education, health care and energy.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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