U.S. Will Escape Recession in 2008

[eridanus]

Obviously there are some very real reasons why the econmy is not doing as well as it could right now.

Like a primary dealer/prime broker (BSC) about to go under? The largest mortgage lender (CFC) on its knees? The Federal Reserve is now accepting mortgage-backed securities for the first time ever, as of last week, and you don't see a reason why the stock market is down? (Because there's not a market for said securities.)

And you claim that this is a "media" recession? Some vast left-wing conspiracy?


Here are our "VERY low" unemployment numbers. They seem to be pretty average (mid 4s). How are they near a record low?

Employment Situation Summary


Productivity growth is strong? Hmmm.

Productivity and Costs, Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages,2007 Revised

 

[ziggy29]

Sure, it will avoid recession. And there was no inflation last month. The government told me so, so it must be true.

 

[al_bundy]

love the economist thing, very funny.

i've never noticed any difference in my lifestyle during my working years that could be attributed to either party in office. i managed fine enough regardless of who ruled. so would political party while not working make that much of a difference?

i always need to (dis)qualify my comments on economy by saying that i have little idea of what is going on but i try to learn as i go.

perhaps someone can enlighten me. has the economy become so regulated by what seems to be a tug of war between the fed and the market and has the economy become so intertwined with internationalism and has the economy become so much larger because of world trade that it no longer plays quite by all the same rules as it has in the past and by which people are trying to predict its future?

doubt it, these things take time to play them out. but we now live in a constant news cycle and you hear about these things and when changes don't happen overnight people dismiss them.

in the 1980's the market crashed in 1987, growth slowed for a few years until 1990 when the recession finally hit

 

[armor99]

Like a primary dealer/prime broker (BSC) about to go under? The largest mortgage lender (CFC) on its knees? The Federal Reserve is now accepting mortgage-backed securities for the first time ever, as of last week, and you don't see a reason why the stock market is down? (Because there's not a market for said securities.)

And you claim that this is a "media" recession? Some vast left-wing conspiracy?


Here are our "VERY low" unemployment numbers. They seem to be pretty average (mid 4s). How are they near a record low?

Employment Situation Summary


Productivity growth is strong? Hmmm.

Productivity and Costs, Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages,2007 Revised

Eridanus, I stand behind exactly what I said... as for proof, I offer up the following for the labor data. I did in fact look up the link you provided. Thanks for doing the research. However, I decided to look deeper into the stats. And I will counter you with this...

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt

The data shows clearly that between 1980 and 1986 the unemployment rate was MUCH higher than it is right now. Peaking in 1981 at a rate of a huge 9.7%! So clearly at least as far as unemployment goes we are in a far better situation than historically we have been in the past. There are certainly times when it has been lower than it is now, but my point was... it is really not so bad right now. As for the rest of what I said... some is just my opinion.... as I can never prove it.

 

[Shredder]

Sure, it will avoid recession. And there was no inflation last month. The government told me so, so it must be true.

Would that be the same goverment that said we needed banking de-regulation about 7 years ago, and has in the last week or two gave banks 400 BILLION to avoid a crisis, and today says we need regs to protect us common folk.....Shredder

 

[mathjak107]

does it really matter at this point if we are or not in a recession. ? the time to have had this discussion is last october. now it dosnt matter the damage is done. if your out of the markets now the focus should be about when to get back in as the turn arounds happen way before there is any light at the end of the tunnel.

miss that turn around by a week and you miss about 8% from your return that year. miss by a quarter. you cut 14% on average off your return and added another 1-1/2 years to recover

 

[2B]

It seems that a majority of economists disagree with the UCLA Anderson Forecast and believe we're now in a recession according to a new WSJ survey:

The Wall Street Journal

A person becomes an economist when they don't have enough of a personality to be an accountant. (another saying about economists)

I really don't think that either political party is "better" for the market or the economy in general. I do have some serious concerns with what I hear from the dems. Of course, most is hopefully rhetoric to excite their base.

Even though the stock market is down, I don't see any real decline in the overall economy or business activity. Things have shifted around a little and I'm sure if I was in the mortgage or home construction business I would probably have a different perspective. Right now the downside seems to be localized to an industry that had gone into bubble mode for the last 5 years. We are now seeing the very messy backlash with a heavy sprinkling of fear mongering.

Of course, I live in Texas with the ebola and scorpions so the little housing bump doesn't make that big of an impact. Texas is still doing ok as far as real estate. I have noticed that when I talk to people from California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida their eyes go wide with fear. They should have been in Houston in the mid-80s. They'd then have seen a real housing collapse. Back then we "just made mistakes and needed to take our medicine." Nobody said a word about bailing us out. The government let untold numbers of S&Ls and banks go under.

 

[chinaco]

"So far, I've made a lot more money with Bush-II than with Clinton-I."

Ive done pretty well under both as have most of my family and personal contacts. But I keep forgetting how terrible it is in this country. Good thing I keep coming back to this message board to keep me in line

Don't look now but your USD buys less on the world market and indexes like the S&P barely made it back to there previous high before it crumbled.

 

[2B]

Don't look now but your USD buys less on the world market and indexes like the S&P barely made it back to there previous high before it crumbled.

I don't know about the others but I made most of my money in the past few years in my foreign funds.

 

[chinaco]

I think the question should be updated to say: How long will the US be in the Recession that began in 2008?

 

[mathjak107]

1/2 way. then we are coming out........

i just love predicting

 

[2B]

I think the question should be updated to say: How long will the US be in the Recession that began in 2008?

The comical part is that "officially" the 2000-2002 "correction" never officially met the definition of a recession.

 

[ziggy29]

I don't know about the others but I made most of my money in the past few years in my foreign funds.

Since 2004, most of my money has been made in foreign stocks, especially emerging markets, and gold stocks/funds. To a lesser extent, I did well with small caps and REITs, at least until the end of '06.

 

[RockOn]

I'll beat an old drum. If the government was reporting the true inflation rate we have been in a recession off and on for some time now. Real GDP=Nominal GDP minus inflation. Fudging that inflation rate is a major factor in many things.