Was there a 2007,2008,2009 YTD performance thread?

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Blue Collar Guy

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I saw a 2016 and the current 2017 YTD performance thread. I looked but could not find a 2007, 2008 & 2009 thread. I was not brave enough to even open my statements back then, and if the market was down I would not look now.
 
you should set your asset allocation at a level such that you are comfortable looking. Otherwise, you will miss opportunities to re-balance and/or tax loss harvest. The former may result in significant under performance over the long term.
 
jebmke said:
you should set your asset allocation at a level such that you are comfortable looking. Otherwise, you will miss opportunities to re-balance and/or tax loss harvest. The former may result in significant under performance over the long term.
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Im sure your right. I still cringe when I hear meltdown, plummet etc. I used to look only the last week of December to maybe rebalance, one year I didnt look at anything till I was doing my taxes in April. Anyway, any 2007,8 or 9 YTD threads? Or we only do these threads when the markets are up?:D
 
you will probably find plenty over on Bogleheads. My recollection from 08-09 was not as psychologically taxing as the 2000-2003 downtick. Once they yanked the spanner out of the gears on the debt markets in '08 I wasn't too concerned, even though the equity market had more to go.
 
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Blue Collar Guy said:
... Anyway, any 2007,8 or 9 YTD threads? Or we only do these threads when the markets are up?:D
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No, I'm sure there was plenty of discussion at the time. It's hard to search, all the terms are common, but they are out there (in here?). But it was more "OMG, how far down are you?! How much lower can this market go?! I might have to go back to work!" Look for the term "capitulation" maybe.

-ERD50
 
ERD50 said:
No, I'm sure there was plenty of discussion at the time. It's hard to search, all the terms are common, but they are out there (in here?). But it was more "OMG, how far down are you?! How much lower can this market go?! I might have to go back to work!" Look for the term "capitulation" maybe.

-ERD50
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Capitulation:LOL:, Too funny. You brightened up my evening with that one
 
I looked at sp 500 chart and it did look very scary. I wasn't in the market. If I did, I would have taken a lot of Zantax, or whatever the drug for panic attack. Almost 50% drop from 2008 to 2009.
 
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Peak to trough was 56% over 17 months for '08-09.

Peak to trough was 49% over 31 months for the DotCom bubble in 2000-2003
 
Fedup said:
I think everybody was too shocked to post.
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We had a poll where folks confessed how many millions they had lost.

Several threads where people posted how far down they were from the peak. I remember this well, because we were down huge and I posted about it.
 
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ERD50 said:
:confused: Ummm, thanks, I guess? Not sure why you found it funny. Take a look here:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/search.php?searchid=8022437

-ERD50
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I found it funny, as the word as I know it meant just throwing in the towel and selling what ever you had left. I have said many times when the meltdown was happening, I refused to open the monthly/quarterly statements. I was just dollar cost averaging. I was told by several member's that if that was the case, then my AA was not a good one. I know I rode out the storm. However the meltdown did play havoc with my emotions.:)
 
Lots of threads back then about the market performance, although there was no single thread to capture it all. We were also testing each other about knowledge of the Depression, the Dust Bowl, etc...

Some posters disappeared after this period. They most likely capitulated, were broke, and had to go back to work or made drastic change to their lifestyle.
 
I just read the posts from the link that ERD50 provided(thanks). I wanted this info, as Im a pessimistic guy.When the next drop comes(im talking a plummet), I was curious if my headaches and worries were just me or was the average guy who on paper was losing his shirt felt the same way. Im glad I was not alone in dying a little every time the market took a plunge. I was also encouraged by some of the posts, saying to hang in there.I remember my broker calling me once or twice to say "dont fold now". By the way, reading some of those posts, about the members that were in the draw down stage was an unhappy event for me. I can imagine for the member it was many times more disheartening. Now that I think more about it, I think I was the one who called my broker.
 
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Since you read my post where I was ready to sell I will tell you what actually happened . I was talked off the ledge by Nords and I held strong . I did sell $10,000 at the almost bottom just for sanity sake .My portfolio did return to it's pre crash state but it took several years . I did not return to work and I would like to think that I could handle another large drop with less anxiety but maybe not.
 
Blue Collar Guy said:
I just read the posts from the link that ERD50 provided(thanks). I wanted this info, as Im a pessimistic guy.When the next drop comes(im talking a plummet), I was curious if my headaches and worries were just me or was the average guy who on paper was losing his shirt felt the same way. Im glad I was not alone in dying a little every time the market took a plunge. I was also encouraged by some of the posts, saying to hang in there.I remember my broker calling me once or twice to say "dont fold now". By the way, reading some of those posts, about the members that were in the draw down stage was an unhappy event for me. I can imagine for the member it was many times more disheartening. Now that I think more about it, I think I was the one who called my broker.
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You resurrected the thread from 2008, but 2009 was the real capitulation, it went down more from the Nov 2008 to March 2009. Maybe 15% more.
 
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Moemg said:
Since you read my post where I was ready to sell I will tell you what actually happened . I was talked off the ledge by Nords and I held strong . I did sell $10,000 at the almost bottom just for sanity sake .My portfolio did return to it's pre crash state but it took several years . I did not return to work and I would like to think that I could handle another large drop with less anxiety but maybe not.
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I do remember your post. I did notice (see my older post),several members were giving encouragement.Even though that carnage has passed I needed to see what others thought about it. I saw several people from that thread no longer post, I wonder what happened to them.
 
NW-Bound said:
One should also search for "buy, buy, buy" posts in that past dire period. ;)
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I'm sure it's clear to you and your "superior memory"! ;) Hmmm, now who was saying "buy, buy, buy" I wonder? :cool:

One could also search for "rebalance" which could be an equivalent for those in the draw-down phase.

Blue Collar Guy said:
I just read the posts from the link that ERD50 provided(thanks). I wanted this info, as Im a pessimistic guy.When the next drop comes(im talking a plummet), I was curious if my headaches and worries were just me or was the average guy who on paper was losing his shirt felt the same way. Im glad I was not alone in dying a little every time the market took a plunge. I was also encouraged by some of the posts, saying to hang in there.I remember my broker calling me once or twice to say "dont fold now". By the way, reading some of those posts, about the members that were in the draw down stage was an unhappy event for me. I can imagine for the member it was many times more disheartening. Now that I think more about it, I think I was the one who called my broker.
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Yes, it's good to look at the history. But also keep a few things in mind - anyone who isn't certain they have nerves of steel should probably have a fairly conservative AA. I do think most people should have at least 40% in equities, but I also think 50/50 is just fine (I'm more aggressive, but that's not for everyone).

And if you are conservative, I feel your WR% should be too, lets say somewhere in the low 3.x% range?

A 40% drop in 'the market' is an ~ 20% drop for a 50/50 portfolio (OK, depends exactly on what the fixed income side does, but close enough for discussion). And 20% isn't the end of the world, though it's hard to ignore.

But also important, and often missed is, with a 3.x% WR, dividends will cover all/most of your withdrawals. And if you need to sell something, maintaining your 50/50 will mean selling from the fixed income side. So you are unlikely to ever need to sell off stocks when they are at/near a bottom.

Keeping all that in mind should help you to stay calm and rational through a crunch.

-ERD50
 
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