Thanks FlaGator for sharing your experience. But I'm not quite following your comment regarding risk mitigation. Wouldn't I be addressing this risk regardless of whether I'm contributing to a 529 or a taxable brokerage account if the intent of those funds is to pay for education expenses (e.g. college)? My question isn't necessarily whether I should fund my kids education expenses but rather which mechanism should I fund it through (529 vs taxable brokerage). The way I'm thinking about this (perhaps over-simplisticly) is would I rather have say $200k in a taxable brokerage or a 529 when my kids are college-age, knowing that I can withdraw from either one tax-free (maybe nearly tax-free in the case of the taxable brokerage). Seems to me like taxable brokerage is the slightly better option given there's no limitations as to what you can use it on if, using your own experience as an example, my kids get full scholarships to school. If you don't mind me asking, what do you plan on doing with the excess funds in the 529s? Assuming you'll convert $35k to each kid's ROTH IRAs? What about the remaining?
Either approach can work. This decision doesn't have to be either/or - you could split the intended funds between 529/Taxable in any proportion you're comfortable with.
Having the 529s allowed me to manage those investments discreetly for growth while ensuring adequate funds at specific dates. Managing my Taxable Brokerage Account has been complicated enough, having to balance variable annual spending needs, occasionally high medical bills, taxes, and ACA limits. I'm glad I didn't have to add college expenses to that equation.
In addition, my experience over the past 20 years is that growth in the Taxable Brokerage Account was not tax-free, nor close to it. Perhaps if you put the money earmarked for college in munis, it would be tax free. Retrospectively, if I had instead invested the college money in a Taxable Account for reasonable growth, the CG alone after 15+ years would have pushed me into a higher taxable bracket and blown through the ACA limits. Taking the gains when they happen along the way (as suggested above) would mitigate that somewhat, while adding another complication to managing the Taxable Account. There are no solutions, only trade-offs.
As for the remaining balances, the money was set aside for their benefit and I never considered it be part of my portfolio. I'm very, very happy everything worked as well as it did to now have the "problem"
. Yes, we'll take advantage of the Roth conversion option. Will also sit on those accounts for a few years to see if they pursue additional education, get married to a spouse with student loan debt, or have kids. After that, not sure. The money is there for me in the unlikely event I need it. But will probably liquidate the accounts, pay the taxes and split the money 50/50 between them for house down payments or other life-changing expenses. If I'm gone by that time, I instructed my kids to do just that.