Well...it official....I'm UnER'd!

[VaCollector]

With the stock market having created havoc in my bank stock heavy portfolio and with no end to the devestation currently in sight, I will be headed back to w*rk....starting again Monday.....and YES, I know that it's a holiday for most....but I can use the day to become reaquainted with my surroundings and j*b.....

It [-]definitely will[/-] should only be for the Spring and even so, I have set some new ground rules at the work place.....appointments only from 10 to 5....no weekend appointments....

Oh yeah....and don't forget to mark off my 2 hour lunch break.....12 to 2 should be jusssst fine!

Anybody wanna guess what I'll be doing!!??

 

[REWahoo]

You're going to tax us for an answer?

 

[VaCollector]

You're going to tax us for an answer?

nice!

 

[Twinkle Toes]

So you are going to work the tax season? Then back to the life of leisure?

 

[VaCollector]

So you are going to work the tax season? Then back to the life of leisure?

Yep....that's the plan.....but if the market continues to pick on me I just might have to rethink things for real!

.....ok.....so maybe AFTER tax time, it may take me 8 or 9 months to really think things through.....but AFTER that I might have to go back again....or not.....

 

[FinanceDude]

With the stock market having created havoc in my bank stock heavy portfolio and with no end to the devestation currently in sight, I will be headed back to w*rk....starting again Monday.....and YES, I know that it's a holiday for most....but I can use the day to become reaquainted with my surroundings and j*b.....

It [-]definitely will[/-] should only be for the Spring and even so, I have set some new ground rules at the work place.....appointments only from 10 to 5....no weekend appointments....

Oh yeah....and don't forget to mark off my 2 hour lunch break.....12 to 2 should be jusssst fine!

Anybody wanna guess what I'll be doing!!??

Why do you have a bank stock heavy portfolio??

 

[Running_Man]

I think he stated in the Bank Stocks thread that he had inherited a large portion of BAC and purchased more as the stock declined and was counting on the dividends. Now the dividends have not yet been cut for BOA but I think the Countrywide acquisition may make that slightly more likely.

Should actually have a good picture by the end of the tax season of the outlook. I know how disconcerting this must be for you right now but I admire your willingness to address the situation and tax the work while it was available.

My sister had a one stock portfolio that went from 800K to zero and she never has really recovered from the shock and been unable to return in a meaningful way to work at a retirment portfolio again.

 

[FinanceDude]

I think he stated in the Bank Stocks thread that he had inherited a large portion of BAC and purchased more as the stock declined and was counting on the dividends. Now the dividends have not yet been cut for BOA but I think the Countrywide acquisition may make that slightly more likely.

Should actually have a good picture by the end of the tax season of the outlook. I know how disconcerting this must be for you right now but I admire your willingness to address the situation and tax the work while it was available.

My sister had a one stock portfolio that went from 800K to zero and she never has really recovered from the shock and been able to return in a meaningful way to work at a retirment portfolio again.

Ok, that makes sense. The banks will recover, just don't know when..........

 

[Helena]

Why do you have a bank stock heavy portfolio??

Good question.

I have no money in the stock market.... and still happily retired

 

[2B]

I only own one stock and it's BAC. Of course, it's also well less than 1% of my portfolio. Everything else is in mutual funds.

The S&P and Total Stock Market Indexes are heavy into financials. Since October, I've had the crap kicked out of my portfolio. That's a term known to the financially savvy as having lost a whole lot of portfolio value.

Unless BAC cuts its dividend it is a screaming buy. If the extremely small acquisition by BAC of CFC goes through, CFC is an even bigger buy. I am, however, not buying either. I'm just going along for the ride.

This whole situation just shows how inept our "leaders" really are. The Treasury lied to us, the Fed lied to us and, yes, even GW lied. The Fed has been consistently behind the curve and making the wrong move at every turn.

I think the Fed needs to come out at 0800 on Tuesday morning with a 1 1/2% rate cut. Forget the stinking $800 (or whatever) and make some meaningful, permanent tax cuts and simplifications.

If I was in charge, none of this would have ever happened.

 

[VaCollector]

Thanks Running Man....you have a good memory and are right on the button with your explanation!

I feel like I have ridden the roller coaster this far...and while I would LOVE for the bottom to be near....I'm not sure at all....and another ER poster has suggested that BAC's bottom might be somewhere in the 12 range ....I'm still in this for the long haul and hope that at least SOME semblance of normalcy will return in the near future....and if I'm really BUSY until April, maybe I won't have the time to keep staring at my future being [-] pi$$ed away by some irresponsible profit seeking brokers and bankers [/-] taken away!

RM....sorry to hear of your sister's losses....and I hope that I won't be sharing her fate!

 

[Dawg52]

This whole situation just shows how inept our "leaders" really are. The Treasury lied to us, the Fed lied to us and, yes, even GW lied. The Fed has been consistently behind the curve and making the wrong move at every turn.

I think the Fed needs to come out at 0800 on Tuesday morning with a 1 1/2% rate cut. Forget the stinking $800 (or whatever) and make some meaningful, permanent tax cuts and simplifications.

If I was in charge, none of this would have ever happened.

I like your thinking.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

this whole retirement thing is really a little scary if you think about it. seems when i was working i never cared what was happening with the stock market or even the economy (though i had enough seniority and was low enough in the company to not easily be cut from the workforce).

but now, i watch this stupid thing everyday like a clock. hey, va, you need a lazy assistant?

 

[VaCollector]

hey, va, you need a lazy assistant?

....but that's MY job!

 

[2B]

There is someone that retired from the company I'm at and he recently came back as a contractor. He said the market volatility was driving him and his wife crazy. He started to worry he wouldn't be able to keep up his lifestyle.

Intellectually, he's fine but the psychology of retirement drives people to become more obsessed with their assets. When getting a paycheck, you don't feel the loss the same way. If you are really retired, you never will get more money except by investment returns.

Would I be so calm about the market if I was retired?

 

[REWahoo]

Would I be so calm about the market if I was retired?

Of course you would! More frequent changes of underwear works wonders for handling these runs of volatility.

 

[cyclone6]

1.5 % interest rate cut? Are you crazy?

This is the box we - and the FED - find ourselves in. Economy heading into, or already in, recession. Inflation running at +4% consumer, +6% producer. (Consumer will catch up with producer, or else producer eventually stops producing and goes out of business.) And don't give me that "core" bs - thats just a cover the FED can use as an excuse - temporarily. Obviously food and energy matter - probably more than anything else - on the US consumers ability to be able to continue to consume.

All of this with 1 euro buying $1.46?

Its quite simple in the end. We have spent and borrowed far beyond our means. Whatever happened to saving? As a nation, we have mortgaged our future.

There is a very painful correction coming (already underway). The choice the FED faces now is simple. Cut interest rates significantly, and send the dollar tumbling and inflation soaring. Or act modestly, and watch us fall into a long, protracted contraction.

There is no easy answer here - either for the FED or us ER'ers. One thing is for sure - the days of America's complete dominance - due to our greed and inability to deal with the issues that confront us - is coming to an end.

I stand by my earlier prediction of DOW 10000 (or lower) before DOW 15000...

 

[barbarus]

Whenever I feel bad about my economic stupidity, which is substantial, I'm glad I can come here, read a few posts, and realize that by some standards, I'm sharp as a tack.

 

[megacorp-firee]

I guess you could call our predicament the ultimate in why you can't try and market time. In my case, I retired at the end of June 2007. I had heard and intellectually understood that the worst time to retire is at the start of a market downturn. Well, here we are. If this R period is short, then my plan A should be enough to get me through. If it' lasts longer than 4 years, then I guess I will have to go to plan B.

Let's hope that no-one has to abandon FIRE permanently.

 

[REWahoo]

Let's hope that no-one has to abandon FIRE permanently.

The Dow is down what, 15% or so? A little early to start talking about closing the garage door and starting your car.

 

[megacorp-firee]

The Dow is down what, 15% or so? A little early to start talking about closing the garage door and starting your car.

Absolutely agree. I'm 4 years from even THINKING of panicking.

 

[2B]

1.5 % interest rate cut? Are you crazy?

Probably

This is the box we - and the FED - find ourselves in. Economy heading into, or already in, recession. Inflation running at +4% consumer, +6% producer. (Consumer will catch up with producer, or else producer eventually stops producing and goes out of business.) And don't give me that "core" bs - thats just a cover the FED can use as an excuse - temporarily. Obviously food and energy matter - probably more than anything else - on the US consumers ability to be able to continue to consume.

All of this with 1 euro buying $1.46?

What we are risking is a complete freeze of our banking system. This is far more important than the actual cost in dollars of my next trip to Europe. Inflation also won't be a problem if our banking system stops working. We can then worry about a far greater evil - deflation.

The Fed has screwed up big time. I don't disagree with your borrow and spend rant. However, we can't solve the problems with an economic breakdown. If it starts happening, the politicos will start to get involved in the "solution" which is almost certain to be worse then a quick drop by 1.5% followed by a series of increases as the system unfreezes.

 

[cyclone6]

Probably




What we are risking is a complete freeze of our banking system. This is far more important than the actual cost in dollars of my next trip to Europe. Inflation also won't be a problem if our banking system stops working. We can then worry about a far greater evil - deflation.

The Fed has screwed up big time. I don't disagree with your borrow and spend rant. However, we can't solve the problems with an economic breakdown. If it starts happening, the politicos will start to get involved in the "solution" which is almost certain to be worse then a quick drop by 1.5% followed by a series of increases as the system unfreezes.

Agreed that the banking system is on the verge of completely freezing. We all know its because the banks loaned billions and billions of dollars to people who couldn't afford it, and now can't pay it back. The write downs have already started, will continue, and now we have bond insurers on the verge of going under, which means a whole new round of bad debt to be added to banks balance sheets.

A lowered interest rate still doesn't mean the banks will start lending again. The 100 basis point cut to this point sure doesn't seem to have had much of an effect - either on lending or stabilizing the markets. I think the FEDs ability to solve this crisis may be greatly exaggerated. Yes, they can lower rates. And then lower them again. And again.

The Japanese central bank did just that in the 1990s. All the way to 0. It didn't pull them out of their economic morass - and their central bank effectively became irrelevant to affect any further changes.

And a true dollar crisis is a lot more than just a more costly trip to Europe. Remember all that oil we have to pump into our giant SUVs to sit in line for a Starbucks coffee? - we pay for that in dollars. If the FED cuts significantly, and sends the dollar tumbling, everything we import is going to cost a lot more. There is a real risk of a 1970s re-do. When the FED had to push interest rates to 21% to combat 12% inflation.

I'm not sure what the best course of action is, but I believe the FED will act cautiously in an attempt to balance the faltering economy and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle. They are walking the proverbial high-wire, with no easy answers.

Whichever way they go, I believe the equity markets have a great deal farther to fall, and its going to take a good deal of time for us to work through this.

Lets just hope its not as long as it was (is) in Japan...

 

[barbarus]

Deflation is indeed a terrible situation for the economy in general, but is also probably the only thing that would help savers. The alternative is a rate of inflation always a bit ahead of interest rate returns.

The Fed will not stop at a hundred&fifty basis points.
Greenspan didn't five years ago.
And they will be just as slow to increase as inflation rises.

Bernanke claims we're not in recession yet, in effect, things are not so bad.
Yet he practicly pleads for governmental stimulus because things ARE getting very bad.

 

[cyclone6]

Speaking of Bernanke, take a look at the pictures towards the end of this weeks John Mauldin's weekly e-letter. As he states, this is not a happy man.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place...