Thanks, Lady LuckBeat you to the punch!
http://www.early-retirement.org/for...ny-time-since-2009-a-80466-4.html#post1698077
I didn't quite utter the "W" word, but I love it when the market acts like this!
I know it's evanescent and just on paper, but since last Thursday I have already made so much in my investment accounts.
How much? Almost 1/2 my annual take-home pay during my last year of work! You can't beat that with a stick, as the saying goes.
I guess you haven't looked at how much you "lost" since last July?
Use of that word with a "w", an "h" and several "e"s should constitute grounds for an immediate ban from the board.
Wheeeeeee
Use of that word with a "w", an "h" and several "e"s should constitute grounds for an immediate ban from the board.
......no! I had one more TLH to do but had other duties so didn't get it done.
What is the track record of the "w" word ..........my stereotypical view was that it was considered a curse on a rising market but I don't have data.......some would welcome it but maybe it's no better than a flip of a coin. Will the responsible party please defend her record (w/ data).
Many people say this, but I believe it comes from a-perfectionist definition of the problem. If on the other hand someone defines the task as only investing at a PE10 level that has in the past data been associated with attractive long term returns, there is no problem. Yet that rule would have likely kept the investor out of many recent markets, so if he is bench-marking he is not going to like it..The other lesson is that while it does seem possible to foresee doom and the need to cut back (equities) it's really hard to tell when to "get back in."
My track record has been terrible! Except for the first time I screamed it, back in the fall of 2007... http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/record-dow-whee-30317.html
Wow - your timing on that was spectacular! You hit the S&P500 peak on the day! Then the biggest selloff and bear market I've seen in my (adult) lifetime.
Was that your very first Wheeeee?
Wow - your timing on that was spectacular! You hit the S&P500 peak on the day! Then the biggest selloff and bear market I've seen in my (adult) lifetime.
Was that your very first Wheeeee?
Yes.
I'm concerned that the model is "over fit", but the PE10 level / momentum scheme in "Rock Breaks Scissors" showed a nice benefit over buy and hold (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/using-shiller-pe-to-time-the-market-73166.html). Average real return of the S&P since 1881, according to this analysis, was 6.23%. By using the scheme in the book, the real return was 7.93%...nothing to sneeze at. It requires that the investor be out of the market for very, very long swaths of time, though. So "nobody" is going to do it...at least if they need to prove their worth every quarter.Many people say this, but I believe it comes from a-perfectionist definition of the problem. If on the other hand someone defines the task as only investing at a PE10 level that has in the past data been associated with attractive long term returns, there is no problem. Yet that rule would have likely kept the investor out of many recent markets, so if he is bench-marking he is not going to like it..
Ha
Exactly my point. But unless we have an ego deficit, that problem does not apply here.I'm concerned that the model is "over fit", but the PE10 level / momentum scheme in "Rock Breaks Scissors" showed a nice benefit over buy and hold (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/using-shiller-pe-to-time-the-market-73166.html). Average real return of the S&P since 1881, according to this analysis, was 6.23%. By using the scheme in the book, the real return was 7.93%...nothing to sneeze at. It requires that the investor be out of the market for very, very long swaths of time, though. So "nobody" is going to do it...at least if they need to prove their worth every quarter.