From bloggingstocks
So, is it possible to follow the "smart" money by looking for these volume anomalies?
And also, if you think you can beat these kinda odds, feel free. But unless I am given this sort of luck, I'll stick with indexing...
I was sitting at my desk when someone said look at Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE: DJ). Murdoch's News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) just made a bid. A couple of keystrokes later I saw the stock was up about 50%. I then heard the comment everyone always makes... "I should have bought that one yesterday." Thanks, but a little too late.
But then I looked a little further and it seems like someone has.
A look at the open interest indicates that there are 4,518 contacts open on the September DJ 45 calls (DJII) and 3,464 options traded yesterday. In fact, I am showing there was no volume on that option strike since February 1, and then yesterday there was suddenly 3,464 contracts traded and today the stock is up 50%. Interesting.
Those 3,464 contracts were traded at 35 cents or less. Each option contract represents an interest in 100 shares of stock. So if they were bought, that is a $121,240 bet the stock was going to go up. The stock is trading in the area of $55 so that means those 45 calls are worth over $10 each. I don't know about you, but $0.35 to $10 literally overnight looks like a nice return to me. Too good to be true. That $121,240 investment is now worth $3.4 million. If that 3,200% rate of return isn't good enough, check out the 5,000% on the June 40 calls. There were 641 contracts of June 40 calls (DJFH) bought at 0.30 for $19,230 yesterday which turned into $961,500 overnight.
So, is it possible to follow the "smart" money by looking for these volume anomalies?
And also, if you think you can beat these kinda odds, feel free. But unless I am given this sort of luck, I'll stick with indexing...