Another AA question that possibly has been answered before but I searched and didn't find exactly what I'm asking.
I'm talking long term static Asset Allocation, not any market timing, I've yet to find any real reason to put any money into bonds. I get the general theory, that it lowers overall risk/volatility, but I can find no long-term scenarios in firecalc where any amount of bonds is helpful. The only scenarios I can come up with that have a higher success rate with any bond allocation are around 10 year timeframe, where you are drawing down a high rate, like 8% or more, basically you know the end date and are trying to burn through it all by then. For example, in firecalc, 1mil, drawing 80k over 10 years, if I use the investigate tool and look at what various allocations do for the success rate, yes I see that a 25/75 has the highest success rate, but that's only a 6% higher success rate than 100/0, hardly a significant decrease in risk. And at what cost? If I take the same scenario over to ******** where I can better compare average portfolio balance at the end, I have twice as big an average ending portfolio in the 100/0 scenario as I do in the 25/75 scenario.
And I had to work hard to find this scenario that actually benefited having any bonds, almost all scenarios show a better success in firecalc when having higher equity allocation, especially anything longer than 10 years.
So my challenge to all interested is to come up with a scenario in firecalc that uses a static AA and shows significantly higher success rate or average ending balance with any bond allocation as compared to 100/0.
It seems apparent that many people on this forum are using an allocation of 70/30 or 60/40 or so, there are plenty much more knowledgeable people on this forum that know more than me, so what am I missing? Keep in mind I'm only talking about static AA holders here, if you think equities are currently overvalued so you've sold some for bonds so you can buy in the next trough, I get that. But if you are holding that ratio long term, why? If you are mitigating volatility, why not do so with an annuity?
The conclusion I'm being drawn to is that I either want to invest my money or I don't. If I do want to invest it, it goes in equities, if not then bonds, cash, whatever. So long term, it's all equity. When I want to cash it out, I cash it out.
I'm talking long term static Asset Allocation, not any market timing, I've yet to find any real reason to put any money into bonds. I get the general theory, that it lowers overall risk/volatility, but I can find no long-term scenarios in firecalc where any amount of bonds is helpful. The only scenarios I can come up with that have a higher success rate with any bond allocation are around 10 year timeframe, where you are drawing down a high rate, like 8% or more, basically you know the end date and are trying to burn through it all by then. For example, in firecalc, 1mil, drawing 80k over 10 years, if I use the investigate tool and look at what various allocations do for the success rate, yes I see that a 25/75 has the highest success rate, but that's only a 6% higher success rate than 100/0, hardly a significant decrease in risk. And at what cost? If I take the same scenario over to ******** where I can better compare average portfolio balance at the end, I have twice as big an average ending portfolio in the 100/0 scenario as I do in the 25/75 scenario.
And I had to work hard to find this scenario that actually benefited having any bonds, almost all scenarios show a better success in firecalc when having higher equity allocation, especially anything longer than 10 years.
So my challenge to all interested is to come up with a scenario in firecalc that uses a static AA and shows significantly higher success rate or average ending balance with any bond allocation as compared to 100/0.
It seems apparent that many people on this forum are using an allocation of 70/30 or 60/40 or so, there are plenty much more knowledgeable people on this forum that know more than me, so what am I missing? Keep in mind I'm only talking about static AA holders here, if you think equities are currently overvalued so you've sold some for bonds so you can buy in the next trough, I get that. But if you are holding that ratio long term, why? If you are mitigating volatility, why not do so with an annuity?
The conclusion I'm being drawn to is that I either want to invest my money or I don't. If I do want to invest it, it goes in equities, if not then bonds, cash, whatever. So long term, it's all equity. When I want to cash it out, I cash it out.