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View Poll Results: How many will sell Equities into a Rally
Yes. I'll sell 10% to 20% 13 11.93%
Yes. I'll sell 20% to 40% 3 2.75%
Yes. I'll sell 40% to 60% 2 1.83%
Yes. I'll sell 60% to 80% 0 0%
Yes. I'll sell 80% to 100% 5 4.59%
No. I will not sell into a Rally 86 78.90%
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Will you sell Equities in a Rally?
Old 10-28-2008, 11:32 AM   #1
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Will you sell Equities in a Rally?

Just wondering how many of us will sell stocks into a 20 to 25% rally. I may change my allocation slightly but I'm still undecided.
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Old 10-28-2008, 11:41 AM   #2
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Nah. Im just holding on to stuff with a white knuckled kung fu death grip. Down or up thats all I do. Probably will regret it years from now. I do the usuall re balance thing.
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Old 10-28-2008, 11:42 AM   #3
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Only if one of my dividend payers cuts their dividend and I can get a better dividend payer with the money from the sale.
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Old 10-28-2008, 11:43 AM   #4
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I predict there will be lots of mini-rallies, each one ended by people selling off who vowed they would sell off "when I've recovered X percent of my portfolio," until those people are all out of equities. Then the real rally will begin. Maybe .
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Old 10-28-2008, 12:17 PM   #5
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I've decided my new long-term target AA is going to be 60/40 instead of 70/30. But I'm at about 57/43 now, and I'm not going to rebalance down to 60/40 into a strong rally. If my portfolio comes back to close to 70/30 again from stock appreciation, then I'll probably rebalance down to 60/40 and stay there.
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Old 10-28-2008, 12:20 PM   #6
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I predict there will be lots of mini-rallies, each one ended by people selling off who vowed they would sell off "when I've recovered X percent of my portfolio," until those people are all out of equities. Then the real rally will begin. Maybe .
Agree - I think the term is called "Overhang"
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:20 PM   #7
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Yes I would probably sell some equities into a 20-25% rally. I am close to my ideal asset allocation now, so any significant gains for stocks would probably trigger a rebalance.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:30 PM   #8
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I'm waiting for 80 to 100% rally to make my move. I'd like to get most of my money back before I jump.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:36 PM   #9
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I'm waiting for 80 to 100% rally to make my move. I'd like to get most of my money back before I jump.
Well, if you sell on the way UP, you could always call it "averaging up", which sounds better than "averaging down".......

Look on the bright side, you retired not long before Ford and GM are going to go bankrupt, and 1500 dealers or so will go belly up. So, you "escaped" that fiasco.........
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:40 PM   #10
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Hey, that's why I retired. My boss sold the franchise to the LM dealer down the road and rented the place to Chrysler for 88K a month for 20 years.

I think my boss may be holding an empty bag soon, good for him.
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:43 PM   #11
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Hey, that's why I retired. My boss sold the franchise to the LM dealer down the road and rented the place to Chrysler for 88K a month for 20 years.
What are the chances that Chrysler can continue to pay the $88K a month??
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:43 PM   #12
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Exactly!
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:45 PM   #13
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Exactly!
So, the contract that your old boss signed with Chrysler is as good as a VA from one of the big insurers?
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Old 10-28-2008, 01:50 PM   #14
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Hey, maybe the Government will step in and guarantee it, I hope not.

Looks like Obama is going to get in and distribute some of my X boss's $, how cool is that.
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Old 10-28-2008, 02:40 PM   #15
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Being at a more conservative AA than I usually keep, due to price drop and stop loss order triggering and not having rebalance, I am not selling. Heck, I have not even got around to buy yet.
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Old 10-28-2008, 03:35 PM   #16
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If you are going to do it, tomorrow morning may be a good time.
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Old 10-28-2008, 03:36 PM   #17
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I plan on selling the speculative positions I have taken on the way down.

Jim
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:13 PM   #18
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If we get a 50% rally (goes up 50%) I might move around 5% to a bond position, but the move upward would need to be significant before I even consider selling.

I was 97% equity and 3% bonds at beginning of June. My intention is to move 1% to bonds every 6 months in a slow move to 90-10 or 80-20. The market has given me 4-5% bonds already without me doing a thing... so the market would need to go up enough for the following dates/ allocations to be out of whack:

December 2008 4% bonds
June 2009 5% bonds
December 2009 6% bonds
June 2010 7% bonds
etc.. (every 6 months, add 1% bonds)

If my bond position at any point is under those amounts, I will sell equites, otherwise the market needs to go up and I need to hold.

I am an estimated 18 years before FIRE.
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Old 10-28-2008, 05:09 PM   #19
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If you are going to do it, tomorrow morning may be a good time.
Yeah, halfway to 20% today. We'll have to see how it holds. Could be "sell the news" type of day.
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Old 10-28-2008, 05:19 PM   #20
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I will not be changing my AA of 45:55 (equities:fixed). I would love a chance to rebalance 5% but only if it is actually rebalancing.
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