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Did we miss the bottom for home values?
Old 08-11-2012, 07:29 AM   #1
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Did we miss the bottom for home values?

I would guess no, but I see more articles suggesting otherwise lately. Probably a good sign, unless you plan to relocate (like me). And undoubtedly depends in part on what region of the USA.

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If you were waiting for home values to hit bottom, you've waited too long. Depending on where you live, you'll likely find fewer homes for sale and slightly higher prices when shopping for a home.
Did You Miss The Bottom In Home Values? | Bankrate.com

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Two home-price indexes show national home prices rising from a year ago as online property tracker Zillow states that the market has bottomed.
Zillow: U.S. home values have bottomed - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
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Old 08-11-2012, 08:51 AM   #2
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I think yes...

I look at what is around us off and on when I am bored at work... and it seems that there is more coming online at higher listed prices... sure, we do not know what the final sales price was, but I think it is an indication...


I guess the good news is that if you are planning on moving soon, you can still get a good price as they are not going up that fast...
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Old 08-11-2012, 09:19 AM   #3
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Well, I received my trim notice for this years property taxes yesterday. It said that my home value went up 36K in Central Florida. So I guess the bottom in Florida was hit last year.

Either that or they need more money.
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Old 08-11-2012, 10:04 AM   #4
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Maybe, maybe not

Yeah! The Housing Bottom Is Here! (PWBC

Prices didn't change much where I am, but I see a lotmore houses on the market for longer time. The local real estates flyer is thicker than it's ever been.
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Old 08-11-2012, 11:24 AM   #5
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Here is some stats. What do you conclude from the graphs? Would someone comment?

USA Home Price History, Historic Home Price Charts: US Housing Update.Com
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Old 08-11-2012, 11:59 AM   #6
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I would guess no, but I see more articles suggesting otherwise lately. Probably a good sign, unless you plan to relocate (like me). And undoubtedly depends in part on what region of the USA.
It's not easy to even measure, housing price changes are not uniform across the country, price comparisons are difficult because each transaction is unique, and data is not transparent. Bill McBride at Calculated Risk does excellent analysis using different data sources. His view is the bottom is a process, nominal prices have probably reached their low, and a slow but steady recovery has begun. Blog here Calculated Risk, his housing call made earlier this year here Calculated Risk: The Housing Bottom is Here

Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture makes the case that housing can continue to fall. His housing articles hee Real Estate | The Big Picture
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Old 08-11-2012, 12:19 PM   #7
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There are so many factors involved.

If one is moving, and if the home values in the destination change similarly to home values at your present home, then the effect may be good, overall. You will be selling your home for more, and then buying the new home for more, so that could be pretty much a wash.

Also, your present house should sell faster if/when sales volumes increase. But then, it may take longer to find the perfect house if there are no longer so many on the market at your destination.

However, all real estate is local. If your present location is still at the bottom, and your destination location is rising, that could be a problem. If the reverse is true you might do better.
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Old 08-11-2012, 12:30 PM   #8
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In Seattle I am almost certain that a bottom is in in the most urban and favored areas-Downtown, Capitol Hill, Belltown and likely the south slope of Queen Ann Hill. Rents are also rising in these places. Perhaps Ballard and Fremont and the University District also, although these are N of the ship canal. These areas are heavily influenced by well paid young tech workers who are finding opportunities in the rapidly expanding business center at South Lake Union, and who want to live close by in hip urban surroundings with lots of other young professionals.

Much less clear in other areas that I follow, and I know nothing at all about Bellevue and E of Lake Washington towns.

I feel quite fortunate to have found a place I liked when I did, and before multiple offers and other buyer unfriendly influences became common. Having my place nailed down, where I want it to be, removes an anxiety from my mind.

Ha
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Old 08-11-2012, 12:41 PM   #9
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Definitely heading up in my area. Only a new recession would likely turn the prices back down right now. But remember the past. Housing prices have always cycled to a degree. So after things stabilize and head up for while it is inevitable there will be stalls and downturns.
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Old 08-11-2012, 12:49 PM   #10
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In Torrance CA we bottomed in May 2012 at $609000 for our 1500 sq ft house. Currently valued at $635000. We last saw $635K in May 2010. Got to $675K in Feb 2011 before the subsequent drop. I use the average of three appraisal sites, zillow being one.
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Old 08-14-2012, 09:52 AM   #11
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check out Trulia sales per sq ft average data for the area you wish to look at



Fort Myers at least broke out of a resistance ceiling this last few months and is now back to mid 2008 prices.

My theory about Florida TRIMs is that they artificially pushed TRIMS below market the last couple of years in order to reset homesteader percent increase caps at the lower base, permitting putting the screws to second home owners who do not have the protection of the percent increase cap, which is now coming to pass with the TRIMs going up. Just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean they are actually out to get you!

That being said, I don't regret owning a second home in Florida - the locals are subsidized through this and other measures, but it translates into lower wage rates (paid in sunshine effect) and much cheaper cost of living.
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Old 08-15-2012, 09:11 AM   #12
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Although Phoenix shows a large increase in average price as per Case Schiller, this is at the lower price points. I doubt there has been much change in higher priced places like Paradise Valley.
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Old 08-15-2012, 12:09 PM   #13
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Both home sales and assessed values have gone up in my part of Texas, but interest rates have remained at historically low levels.
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Old 08-16-2012, 02:25 AM   #14
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I am pretty sure Vegas bottomed last year. Inventory remain very tight and average selling prices are above list prices.

The data is much more mixed for Honolulu with list prices up 2.1% year over year but price per square foot drop 15% to mere $490/square foot.

Of course that fact that Honolulu prices drop $75/square foot is pretty crazy when I haven't even looked looked at house in Vegas that goes for more than $75 square foot.
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Old 08-16-2012, 03:33 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by haha
In Seattle I am almost certain that a bottom is in in the most urban and favored areas-Downtown, Capitol Hill, Belltown and likely the south slope of Queen Ann Hill. Rents are also rising in these places. Perhaps Ballard and Fremont and the University District also, although these are N of the ship canal. These areas are heavily influenced by well paid young tech workers who are finding opportunities in the rapidly expanding business center at South Lake Union, and who want to live close by in hip urban surroundings with lots of other young professionals.

Much less clear in other areas that I follow, and I know nothing at all about Bellevue and E of Lake Washington towns.

I feel quite fortunate to have found a place I liked when I did, and before multiple offers and other buyer unfriendly influences became common. Having my place nailed down, where I want it to be, removes an anxiety from my mind.

Ha
We bought in downtown Seattle one year ago at 33% below 2006 prices. Our condo dipped a bit, but has been slowly rising for the last six months. I hear that family homes within a 45 minute drive of the city center are in short supply and getting multiple offers. I also know of property in rural WA that are still dropping in value and not selling.

So yeah, probably region specific.

SIS
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Old 08-16-2012, 11:00 AM   #16
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Trulia doesn't seem to have the price per square foot graph for my area, but says that sales volumes here are still decreasing although prices are holding up and even increasing slightly.

That makes sense to me. I am theorizing that those few who still want to buy here and qualify for a mortgage, are able to borrow a reasonable amount and are willing to pay every bit of it for the house of their dreams.

It seemed like we were hit by the housing slump a little later than some areas, and perhaps the full recovery from it will be a little later too.
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Old 08-16-2012, 02:11 PM   #17
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Since our house just went under contract, I'm confident prices will increase dramatically over the next year in this area.
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Old 08-16-2012, 04:43 PM   #18
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Since our house just went under contract, I'm confident prices will increase dramatically over the next year in this area.
+1
We are hoping to be under contract on a rental property next week. The market here is up 300% in the last 7 years and we do not insure, so we are selling it before the odds go against us!
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Old 08-16-2012, 06:08 PM   #19
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+1
We are hoping to be under contract on a rental property next week. The market here is up 300% in the last 7 years and we do not insure, so we are selling it before the odds go against us!
Yes, we're looking at the odds too. Even though the market's been good here lately, there are many uncertainties here in the DC area. The election, the "fiscal cliff", potential defense department cutbacks and many other things. We'll just be happy to put it behind us and be down to one paid for house.
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Old 10-10-2012, 09:44 AM   #20
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As has been said, housing market condition can be tough to follow. IMHO- Most markets seem to have at least stabilized, but the historically large proportion of financially distressed properties will remain a headwind to price appreciation in many areas. And sometimes in same area low-mid priced homes will rebound while high-end properties remain depressed (or vice-versa). We're looking at remodeling vs moving within same area & it's confusing decision.
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