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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 06:11 PM   #41
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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Originally Posted by Nords
Are we not reading any of the books?* Zelinski, Terhorst, Burns, Bernstein... et al?* What about the Trinity study or any of the lifestyle gurus?* I think Dominguez' example is a pretty potent warning on the dangers of ER via Treasuries.* I think that there are plenty of authors who've done post-mortems on failed ERs.* (In fact, any author who publishes a book while in ER should probably do their own autopsy.)* What are you looking for, a peer-reviewed article in the Journal of Operations Research?
I've done a few autopsies on friends of mine who just don't get it (or who think I don't get it either).* Cut-Throat, John Galt, TH, & Unclemick have done the same.* Sorry that I don't have an advanced OR degree but I have taken a few courses on the subject, and I think that TH has educated us all on the business science of conducting studies.* So again, what are you looking for?
Hey, Cut-Throat, I'm with you.* Geez, Donner, I'm only 44 and you're depressing ME.* Lighten up a little.* I entered ER in the same frame of mind as my 20s, and many of my alleged friends tell me that I still have that level of maturity.*

As we pointed out on your inaugural post, this is not rocket science.* Determine your expenses.* Save 25x that amount for a 4% SWR.* Take a sabbatical or unpaid leave or a long vacation and test-drive ER.* Check those expense numbers one or two more times (perhaps with TH's handy appliance-replacement budget numbers) and figure out if your portfolio is adequately capitalized.* If it is and you feel that you can handle it, then ER.* If it works, great!* If not, make a spouse compromise or volunteer at a charity or even get another (*gasp*) job.*

But don't sit there fully employed, especially with YOUR impression of non-discretionary expenses, and expect to have the credibility to complain about ER naivete, concern, or empathy.* We're doing just fine.* Come on in-- the water's great.* Do it while you have enough life left to enjoy it...
And always remember.............you're not paranoid if people
really are out to get you and steal your money. Watch out for yourself man; no one else is going to take on the task.

JG
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 06:15 PM   #42
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Studies arent a business or a science, they're an art form. Its actually easy art. Anyone will swallow a bar or pie chart hook line and sinker 99% of the time with no question whatsoever as to the origin. Its especially helpful if the information is either highly believable or so unbelievable that its controversial.

My budget stuff/appliance replacement needs to be adjusted in one way. If you buy a General Electric appliance, you need to budget to buy a different manufacturers model 15 months later.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 07:33 PM   #43
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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Originally Posted by th
Studies arent a business or a science, they're an art form.* Its actually easy art.* Anyone will swallow a bar or pie chart hook line and sinker 99% of the time with no question whatsoever as to the origin.* Its especially helpful if the information is either highly believable or so unbelievable that its controversial.

My budget stuff/appliance replacement needs to be adjusted in one way.* If you buy a General Electric appliance, you need to budget to buy a different manufacturers model 15 months later.
When I was working, I used to say that most people will automatically
believe anything printed off a computer. I think it's probably still true.

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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 08:15 PM   #44
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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Studies arent a business or a science, they're an art form.
Hmmm, if you're producing something for personal pleasure with no hope of fiscal remuneration, I'd call it art.

If you're producing something in the hope of profiting from its use, then I'd call it business.

However, you've educated me on how to raise the business of scientific studies to an art form!
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 08:18 PM   #45
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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Originally Posted by Nords
Hey, Cut-Throat, I'm with you.* Geez, Donner, I'm only 44 and you're depressing ME.* Lighten up a little.* I entered ER in the same frame of mind as my 20s, and many of my alleged friends tell me that I still have that level of maturity.*
My son says I am 16 going on 64. (This is not exactly a compliment.) Now 16 going on 65, I guess. Who would want to ER if they didn't have energy to act?

Re: Donner's empathy, etc. Methinks Donner just likes to hear himself talk. He talks really good, too.*

Other good ER books are any by Gillette Edmunds. He claims that bad investment decisions are more likely to wreck an ER than living a bit over budget.

Mikey
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 08:24 PM   #46
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Chris and Bow Tie--

* * * * *Took the time to prepare a long and thoughtful response to your query about what I mean when I say young people are naive about what life has in store for you.
But somehow I dumped it. *Save early, save often. *So I'm gonna give you the short version.

* * * * *Your health will pass you by, eventually. *First the eyes go, then the legs, then the wind. *Then the docs will get ahold of you and its all downhill from there. *Take a good look at your parents. *That's you you're looking at. *One day you will look in the mirror and say "Dang! I look just like the old man!"

* * * * * In your 20s and 30s you have a set of interests, pursuits and pleasures that are appropriate for your age. *For most adults, these interest, pursuits and pleasures mature and change. *A person my age, 57, can have an appreciation of what a 27 year old is experiencing because we have been there and done that, so to speak. *But it doesn't work in reverse. *Just can't is all. *

* * * * * *For most people, as they age and go through the normal life cycles of raising a family they find that life brings with it a set of encumbrances. *These are not all bad and they go with being a part of society. *Your life circumstances at 57 are going to be a hell of a lot different then at 27. *And your outlook on life is going to be a hell of lot different too. * *Think about it.

* * * * * *ER planning in your 20s and 30s, for most people in the mainstream, has got to be preliminary and tentative. *Get a plan for regular savings and investment and stick with it. *But you are looking way down the line at a world that doesn't even exist yet. That is looking through a glass darkly. *All I can say, from my own experience, is that life has a way of getting complicated on you in ways you never conceived of when you were 27. *So, yeah, you are, due to your age and relative experience in life, naive about what life has in store for you. *But naive ain't a bad thing. *Its a young thing,

Donner

* * * * * *




* * * * * *

* * * * *
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 08:55 PM   #47
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Mikey--

I am 57 and DW is 59. Both now eligible for Fed annuities under FERS retirement system. That will be a partially COLA'd pension based on 1% for each year of service times the high three adjusted for survivor annuity. Good but not great. Health benefits not bad if you join an HMO. Blue Cross fee for service plan is getting stingier and stingier. Have to fight with them all the time. Both eligible for SS at 62. Have a 401(k) like vehicle called the Thrift Savings Plan which is very low cost but limited options.

Won't beat this dead horse cause we done that already but.... My circumstances are such that the two big gorillas in my retirement living room are going to be a mortgage and significant health care costs. Gonna boost my cash flow rrequirement. Also have some discretionary expenses which many, many on this board are incredulous over and can't get past. To that I say, to each his own, to each his own.
I must say there are some hobbies, past times and discretionary pecadillos I have observed on this Board that make me wonder, too. But I am not going to get in that mud pit.

Suffice it to say that my retrirement planning centers around accumulating enough annual purchasing power, with some cushion for the unexpected financial setback, to maintain Mrs. D and me in place, at the standard of living which we presently enjoy. LBYM is an option, of course. But why? If you want to LBYM, go for it.
I'd rather keep working just a little while longer to not have to go there. Just me I guess.

As far as me liking to hear myself talk.... Well, what I am really trying to do is elicit useful information that can inform my retirement planning. To be honest with you, sometimes that is like pulling teeth around here. Mostly, its the same old yadda, yadda, by the same set of smug old pharts who have an inflated sense of their superior brand of living and investment expertise. Actually, I think some of these guys are feeling a little vulnerable. Maybe they have good reason to.

Donner
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 09:09 PM   #48
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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Originally Posted by Donner
Well, what I am really trying to do is elicit useful information that can inform my retirement planning. To be honest with you, sometimes that is like pulling teeth around here.
It's all around you. If you haven't gleaned what you need by now then it may not exist. I suspect overcomplification. But one way or another we all stop working someday.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
Mostly, its the same old yadda, yadda, by the same set of smug old pharts who have an inflated sense of their superior brand of living and investment expertise.
Well, you can include me in that category. I think it comes from experience, the most superior "inflated sense" of all. But I'll let ex-Jarhead, Cut-Throat, John Galt, and Ol' Rancher take it from here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
For most adults, these interest, pursuits and pleasures mature and change. *
No matter how many birthdays I have, Donner, I don't think I'll ever be as old as you!
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Upon further reflection...
Old 05-11-2005, 11:08 PM   #49
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Upon further reflection...

... perhaps your answer lies in financial blogs.* Here's a list from the end of the article:

http://seekingalpha.com/. The mother of all investment blogs with links to everything stock market, venture capital and economics.

http://pfblog.com/* A big, busy blog by a 29-year-old seeking to retire at age 40 with at least $1 million.* It's full of personal finance and investing tips, well organized, with links to many, many other money blogs.

http://www.soundmoneytips.com/2005/0...sonal_fi.html* This is a list of most financial blogs. It's also a money tips blog of its own, that appears to have a writer AND an editor. Consequently, it's shorter, snappier, and smarter than a lot of the competition.

http://allthingsfinancial.blogspot.com* A fee-only financial planner's musings on stocks, savings, inspirational books and more.

http://frugalforlife.blogspot.com* Where the self-proclaimed cheapskates chill.

Maybe this thread on intercst's board has ER failure lessons. I've also read that WorkWayLess on TMF ER'd and returned to work due to healthcare costs, but the details are on probably on TMF.

40,000 new blogs a day and dozens of discussion boards.* The answers are out there somewhere...

(EDITED on 12 May to add the intercst link.)
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 12:13 AM   #50
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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Originally Posted by Donner
Suffice it to say that my retrirement planning centers around accumulating enough annual purchasing power, with some cushion for the unexpected financial setback, to maintain Mrs. D and me in place, at the standard of living which we presently enjoy.* LBYM is an option, of course.* But why?* If you want to LBYM, go for it.
I'd rather keep working just a little while longer to not have to go there.* Just me I guess.Donner
Donner, I think this is a perfectly good plan. Some people prefer freedom now, even if they have to kind of wing it, or may have to at some future time. Others prefer their ducks in a row.

It's just that most here would feel fine with much less security than you apparently have, so perhaps the level of assurance that you are seeking is not likely to be found here, partlly because you may tend to discount the experiences and viewpoints of "us old farts."

Mikey
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 04:30 AM   #51
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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Originally Posted by Donner
\

\* * * ** * ** * * * * ** life has a way of getting complicated on you in ways you never conceived of when you were 27. * * * * *




* * * * * *

* * * * *
Absolutely true.* At the same time one can view complications as hurdles or opportunities.* Roadblocks or temporary stops along the way.* Face them head on and then go on living.* Once was told "It's not a dress rehearsal", that comment has stuck with me.

Donner, there are plenty of things that I want to* and plan on doing at 57, and 67 and 77.* I just happen to know 80 year olds who are more active than I and love their life.* I also know 80 year olds who haven't had a good day in the past 30 years.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 05:18 AM   #52
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
Mostly, its the same old yadda, yadda, by the same set of smug old pharts who have an inflated sense of their superior brand of living and investment expertise. Actually, I think some of these guys are feeling a little vulnerable. Maybe they have good reason to.

Donner
Your smug old pharts are often collectively referred to as WOOFYS (Well Off Old Folks). Hope to join that church and sit in my own pew.

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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 07:43 AM   #53
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Mikey is correct, although I have no quarrel with Donner or anyone who
wants to continue with their working lifestyle post-ER, or work longer
to enlarge their cushion. In fact, I have no problem with
whatever anyone does ER-wise, as long as they don't mess with my life/plans. Indeed, I wish happiness
and contentment for the whole universe. May the Force be with them. In marked contrast to Donner however, I chose to ER
at a spending level at approx. 25% of when I worked and figure
I could get it under 20% with no sweat. A big pile of money would be nice. I don't have it and so we do what we can with what we
have.

JG
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 09:10 AM   #54
 
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Hey Donner,

I, for one, am enjoying this thread.* Being ten years your junior, I guess I fall somewhere between young and naive, and clucking old phart.* I'm taking a federal early retirement in a few months partly for one of the reasons you mention--health.* That is, so far I haven't had to confront any chronic health concerns.* So I will git while the gittin's good.*

Although my version of the game is to take an extended sabbatical then re-enter the workforce, I still share many of the questions you raise in your original message.* My genetic heritage includes now deceased males who retired early, then did.......nothing.* Or rather, they ate and slept and ate until they eventually blew up.* That's not my ambition, though I have vague worries that I may later embrace my destiny.

tozz
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 09:40 AM   #55
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Donner,

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. To the extent I can, I understand. For some reason your earlier post reminded me of my 95 year old great aunt. I've seen her stare at a 12 lane city street and jay walk her way to the double yellow line to await the next jay walking adventure. It seems that some folks age at different rates if that makes any sense.

I've been planning FI/RE since I was 21. The plan allows for a good balance of current and deferred gratification. 16 years into it, the plan seems to be on target. Yes, the target changes a little from time to time, but the gist is the same. That's what prompted my question. For me, it's been a slow, steady plodding towards FI/RE that hasn't changed too much even with the arrival of my son and daughter.

Kind Regards,

Chris
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 10:08 AM   #56
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Donner,

I, too, appreciate the reply. I been wanting to know what's on the other side of jobbing for a living since I got out of college, 'bout 7 years now. I try, but can't figure out how, my philosophy of financial independece and living my own life on my own terms could possibly change, but who knows what the future holds.

Thanks, and best of luck to you and your Mrs.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 10:09 AM   #57
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Cut-throat and Nords,

Thank you, too, for your replies.* It gives me hope that although I am forced to grow older, I don't necessarily have to grow up...* ** I'll drink to THAT.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 11:24 AM   #58
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Donner,
Thanks for your posts -- they describe well a certain pre-ER stasis that, if left alone, might just keep you in the 'let me just work for 2 more years' loop. So it is worth digging into a bit.

I think what is missing is a vision of what you want to do with your life -- now or after ER.

Up to now, everything is about planning the financial part. Whether you choose to trust in it or not, or whether another 5% or 10% would always be welcome, it sounds as though you are probably close enough financially to ER today, or at least within a few years. That is no longer the issue, and you need to forget about the financial stuff for now.

What you need to do now is figure out what you might feel is missing from life. What do you feel passionate about? Do you have any new friends? New interests? Do you feel resentful of work a little because it is keeping you from starting on project x, y or z that you really are fired up about? Take these answers and work with them. If there aren't too many things you can say 'yes' to, then work on that . What did you love to do when you were 22? Did you always want to ride a motorcycle? Or backpack the Appalachian Trail? Maybe get a sailboat? Or was it something more along the lines of developing an art or craft to a degree you could feel pretty good about the quality of the work you were turning out, learn to play the bagpipes or make intricate models of ships in bottles. Maybe it is to get involved with youth groups and take kids to build Habitat for Humanity houses in a poor neighborhood in your state Who knows? But my strong sense is that until you get to the heart of what _you_ really care about, you'll be sitting on the other side of the fence, thinking about how it is scary or uncertain over here.

Once you know why you want to ER, why work is holding you back from your true destiny, then you'll put up with all sorts of uncertainty or even financial sacrifices to be able to have all your time free to really live the new life you are charting for yourself.

Problem is, it won't be all clear at first, and it may be impossible to be really clear on it until you stop, spend a year or two floundering around trying things and finding yourself led toward the thing that is really going to sustain you for the long run. So you might have to jump in first and then figure out why you did it later.

This isn't so bad once your realize that everybody has to retire sooner or later, and figure this all out. So whether you face up to this at 57 or 67 or 77, it is going to be the same challenge. Might as well get an early start on it!

Good luck with this -- for some, it is arguably the hardest part of the whole ER deal, completely different in warp and woof from learning to LBYM or learning to make and save lots of money.

WOOF -- I love it.

5 years into ER and I am still figuring out why I did it, but now I don't mind.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 08:18 PM   #59
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Nords and others--

* * * * * *Thanks for the links.* I will check them out.


ES_R Bob--

* * * * * *I think in your usual perceptive way you have come closest to assessing my situation.
As for retirement itself, I am looking forward to it.* Don’t mistake my probing, questioning and testing of retirement issues as a reluctance to do retirement.* Quite the contrary.* Excited by the prospect.* I'm just poking a stick at the thing is all.

* * * * * * I recently had a phone conversation with one of my old bosses.* A great guy.* Hadn’t heard from him in years and years.* I asked him to remind me when he retired.* Dec. 1989, at the age of 52.* Took a penalty against the annuity for retiring before 55.* *I asked what he was doing in retirement.* He regaled me with a list of jobs and social involvements with various groups over the years.* Divorced and remarried.* Joined the Church. Moved to the South.* Currently selling real estate.* *Really, several lifetimes of living packed into 16 years of retirement.* Well, I asked him, do you consider yourself retired, or working, or what?* “Retired but active” he said.* “You gotta stay active” he said, “or otherwise you’re gonna roll up and die.”* *I think that’s my path, health allowing.* So what ya gonna DO Donner?* Well, I don’t have the answer to that yet.* But I am noodling the problem.* It will involve employment of some kind outside the home.* Maybe not paid employment – but employment nevertheless. That is to say, work.* *When I discover just exaclty what its going to be you guys will be the first to know.

Donner*
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-12-2005, 10:29 PM   #60
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

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“Retired but active” he said.* “You gotta stay active” he said, “or otherwise you’re gonna roll up and die.”
Admirable sentiment, but in three years of ER I have NEVER arisen in the morning wondering "Gee, how will I stay active today?" Among parenting, home maintenance/improvement, groundskeeping, reading, tae kwon do, and surfing there's still not enough hours in the day. And I'd like to cut back on at least three of those activities!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
That is to say, work.
It bears repeating-- work in "retirement" (I know, oxymoronic) is for those who aren't taking responsibility for their own entertainment & fulfillment.

Donner, I think you have a terminal case of paralysis by analysis.
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