Race to 2024 - please join :)

[dvalley]

Exit2024, congrats on the impending 2 comma status! I guess your target is much higher than mine sounds like in the $3M range.

Well let's see- so previously I said I was at 30% of my target of $1.5M, however, I didn't take into account that some of the 30% included the college savings for DD. So if I look at the total I'm now at 32% but if I exclude the college savings I'm at 30%.

Now that I think about it I may need to account for DD's wedding etc too but not sure how granular I want to get with these future one-time expenses.

 

[redduck]

Sure, count me in.

 

[enginerd]

Since I was 22 when I graduated, I always had the idea that I wanted to retire before I turned 50...my target was always 2029.
I'm 37 now and my current projections tell me that 2024 is the year. I'm about 35% to my goal. My biggest worry is lifestyle creep and spending. Hopefully we can keep that in check.

 

[Rowej]

Hello 2024 tribe. I would like to think we will be able to RE in 2024, but it most likely will be 2026, based on my calcs. I will be 54 later this year and DW is 7 years behind me, so it won't be ER, just RE.

Making mortgage payments every two weeks and paying additional principal on each payment to have the house paid off in 10 years instead of the 14.5 years remaining. I figure we need $2.5mm to $3.0mm like others in cash, investments and rental income. Currently have $500k in deferred comp plan, $520k in 401k, and $20k in Roths, and $28k in taxable investment accounts.

Last 4 years have been maxing the 401k to $24k (With the over 50 Catch Up Contribution) in my account and this year contributing $17k in her 401k. This puts us at just over the two comma club in investments but the deferred comp will have taxes taken out at a high rate, so have to adjust for that, but continuing to contribute and no withdrawals planned until 2024.

In summary, about 40% there, but on the right track. BTW, I guess it would be ER for DW, lol! Let's keep saving and RE in 2024!

 

[Markola]

I'm thinking increasingly less about "My Number" and more about achieving benchmarks and ranges. For example, every time the portfolio notches another $250K upward, it means $10,000 more in future FIRE income at 4% SWR. Once we get to the $2 - $2.5 million range, DW and I will have a bunch of decisions to make, like paying off the mortgage or not, going part time or not, downsizing, maybe taking a year off for trial FIRE. etc.

I'm 50 and our goal has been since our 30s to reach $3 million at 59.5 but we're getting bored with our careers so we might well want to start pulling some levers and pressing some buttons in about 5 years from now instead. It's really nice to finally have options emerging!

 

[Markola]

The stock market run up of late crossed us over $1.25 this week, so we had dinner out to celebrate. Well, that and to be in some air conditioning.

 

[Exit 2024]

Congratulations, Markola! Is it investable only?
We ourselves joined two comma club as of Friday but it is in total NW, next targets would be to pay off last 50k on mortgage an then get to seven digits in investable

 

[Dawg52]

I remember when I was a young whippersnapper thinking about my 'number' and how long it would take to get there. It was fun plugging in the numbers and seeing the plan come together. My only advice......enjoy the ride. Lot's of good years to enjoy along the way. Once you get there, it's everything you thought it would be.

 

[Exit 2024]

Just read some previous comments

Rowena and engineered, welcome!
Looks like you are ahead in the race with 40% and 35%, good job!!!

 

[Exit 2024]

dvalley, your post made me go and check quicken accounts that are listed for our daughter - Roth IRA that we are funding for her from age 16 when she got her first job, and some Ibonds. So confirmed that those excluded from out totals, for a min was thinking that I had it all in.
About college and wedding- we do not have separate accounts for that, currently we cover her living expenses from cash flow and she takes loans for tuition. We do expect to help her to pay those loans but want her to work on them for at least 4-5 years by herself, then will probably pay rest of the balance. Based on that timeline we will be ERd by then, guess we need to think about it little bit more if want to save money in separate bucket for that , plus wedding

 

[exnavynuke]

Hi all, I'd like to be in the club too!

My numbers aren't set in stone yet (pending VA rating decision), but I'm anticipating that fixed benefits should cover ~67% of my current spending. If that pans out, my investments are at 66% towards my needs based on a 4% SWR... after I pay off the mortgage. I'm closing next Saturday on a 15 year, 2.5%, refinance that I plan to pay off in the next 7 years (not the best way to maximize net worth, but the psychological benefit of not owing money on the house I think makes it worth it for me).

If I had to maintain the mortgage payment forever (for easy calculations), I'd be 33.2% towards my needs based on a 4% SWR. At my current savings rate, I should reach 100% of that number by 2025 (given an average 5% return to be conservative, 2024 with a 7% return).

Given that, I think 2024 is a "safe" FIRE goal for me right now, though if I get rated lower/higher by the VA then I'll have to revisit those numbers to either the upside or downside.

 

[Exit 2024]

exnavynuke, welcome
Looks like are on very good shape with excellent perspective to get to the target by 2024, now we all have to race you to the finish line

 

[Exit 2024]

Update on my number- closed Q3 at 34.2% of target, and finally joined two comma club
how all of you are doing? Any progress? Milestones?

 

[CajunGirl]

I'm hopeful we can be done be 2024, although it may stretch to 2025 or 2026. My husband went back to school in 2015, so we're currently living on one salary. He'll graduate in spring 2018, and his starting salary will make a big difference in whether we hit our goals earlier or later.

We're 38, planning to save $1.5 million and have a paid-off house when we pull the plug. We're currently about 28.6% there. (We've also saved 40% what we want to pay for college for our 3 kids; the oldest graduates high school in 2024.)

I will have a small pension (about $1k per month) that won't be inflation adjusted. I'll probably start pulling that around age 55. That's not included in any of the calculations.

 

[panhead]

I'll play! I hope to be out before 2024 but since I keep raising my "number", that may not happen.
Either way, I'll be keeping an eye on this thread!
OP: I'm one year younger than you (46).

-Pan-

 

[Markola]

Congratulations, Markola! Is it investable only?

We ourselves joined two comma club as of Friday but it is in total NW, next targets would be to pay off last 50k on mortgage an then get to seven digits in investable

Right, investable. I guess I could add our $100K home equity but I usually leave housing out of it. Congrats on your own progress!

 

[dvalley]

Update on my number- closed Q3 at 34.2% of target, and finally joined two comma club
how all of you are doing? Any progress? Milestones?

Congrats on the two comma club! I'm only half way to the two comma club and still about 33% of the target number. Unfortunately it seems my numbers haven't increased much at all in the last couple of months but it's all part of the long journey.

 

[DrRoy]

I think it's possible but of course depends on the market and the job situation. If I can get 8% year over year for the next 9-10 years I'll definitely be FI if not FIREd at which point I can greet people at Walmart for a few years to close any gaps

Folks, I do not mean to be a downer here, but here are my thoughts on future rates of return in the stock market. Based on the S&P 500 with dividends, the historic rates of return over the last several decades has been 10% +/-. My personal experience with investing is about the last 35 years. In that time, corporate earnings, which is much of the basis for stock valuations, have been driven by growth in population, productivity, and particularly the exceptional expansion of the economy of China. From here, all 3 of those drivers are going to be much more muted than they have been going back. That means that equity returns are most likely to be more muted too. For bonds, those 35 years saw a great bull market as interest rates fell from cycle highs to cycle lows, which also cannot be repeated going forward. I think it is prudent to assume future returns will be around 3-4%, not 8%. Just my opinion.

 

[exnavynuke]

Folks, I do not mean to be a downer here, but here are my thoughts on future rates of return in the stock market. Based on the S&P 500 with dividends, the historic rates of return over the last several decades has been 10% +/-. My personal experience with investing is about the last 35 years. In that time, corporate earnings, which is much of the basis for stock valuations, have been driven by growth in population, productivity, and particularly the exceptional expansion of the economy of China. From here, all 3 of those drivers are going to be much more muted than they have been going back. That means that equity returns are most likely to be more muted too. For bonds, those 35 years saw a great bull market as interest rates fell from cycle highs to cycle lows, which also cannot be repeated going forward. I think it is prudent to assume future returns will be around 3-4%, not 8%. Just my opinion.

I really hope you're wrong as that would suck for everybody as even a 3% withdrawal rate would not be "safe" in such an environment and you'd likely need a SWR of less than 1%. I don't think that growth of the economy is going to be as muted as you estimate however, as I think a 7% average return will be easily met over the next 40 years and higher is likely.

 

[Cassius King]

I'm targeting class of 2024 as well. I'll be 50 then and it seems like a good age to jump off the hamster wheel.
I'll be debt free, including home, so that will help. However, I'm not targeting $3m like most. After healthcare, I have near zero expenses other than property taxes and utilities. Should have north of $1-1.5m at that point. All I need is enough income to cover a couple days worth of greens fee's at the local muni, some nice protein to put on the smoker, and some simple trips to the beach and mountains every year. My investments and small pension should be enough for that.
We are going to stay in our current home. Never bought the McMansion. A modest 1500 sq ft, 3 BR, 2.5 bath home. Added a beautiful sunroom on the back and am extremely happy here. This year added a new roof (complete tear off and new wood), siding, shutters, gutters and trim, as well as new furnace and ac unit. Not much left to do but keep putting the $$ away for the next 8 years. I don't have a six figure income, but live well and comfortably. Avoiding an expensive lifestyle and habits goes a long way to financial freedom.

Cheers to my fellow class of 2024 members and may we all exceed our goals earlier than planned!

 

[Cassius King]

And, I unfortunately agree with DrRoy to an extent. I do expect overall returns to be lower. There will be one off stocks that offer excellent returns (think future tech, ie the next AMZN, AAPL, etc), but with interest rates where they are, a growing divide in have's and have nots, and CEO's making $100m, the trend isn't optimistic. Just don't see the 8+% returns on an annual basis.
Whatever returns there have been in the market over the last several years have been due to very low, non-existent, interest rates. Only place to get yield is in the market with dividends.

 

[Bimmerbill]

2026 Here unless there is an early out offer (which I hope there will be)!

 

[FIREmenow]

And, I unfortunately agree with DrRoy to an extent. I do expect overall returns to be lower. There will be one off stocks that offer excellent returns (think future tech, ie the next AMZN, AAPL, etc), but with interest rates where they are, a growing divide in have's and have nots, and CEO's making $100m, the trend isn't optimistic. Just don't see the 8+% returns on an annual basis.
Whatever returns there have been in the market over the last several years have been due to very low, non-existent, interest rates. Only place to get yield is in the market with dividends.

But, wait - Dave Ramsey says I can get 12% on my money.......

 

[Markola]

I think it is prudent to assume future returns will be around 3-4%, not 8%. Just my opinion.

On the other hand:
Inflation is historically low, mitigating some of the reduced returns of US stocks, because they don't need to return as much to outpace inflation.

Interest rates are low, supporting higher real estate prices and allowing for investment in capital.

US manufacturing is at an all time high (yes, that's true) thanks to dramatic automation in manufacturing and containerized shipping. US exports and corporate profits are poised to grow once the historically-strong dollar returns to mean or below someday.

Returns abroad could be strong in places that have growing populations and increasing consumption. I'm about 30% international.

Interest rates will likely rise some but the decimation of US bonds keeps not happening. The Vanguard Total Bond Index is up 5%+ for the year - again- which is better than stocks at the moment.

 

[DrRoy]

I really hope you're wrong as that would suck for everybody as even a 3% withdrawal rate would not be "safe" in such an environment and you'd likely need a SWR of less than 1%. I don't think that growth of the economy is going to be as muted as you estimate however, as I think a 7% average return will be easily met over the next 40 years and higher is likely.

It would not bother me to be wrong and returns are higher than my case above. That would be better for me too. However, at this point, I think the arguments hold.