mathjak107 said:
why does anyone think most people will be in a higher bracket not working than working? i have a problem believing that...with the baby boomers now being a major part of the population i cant imagine any politcal leader or group telling the baby boomers that they are raising their tax brackets...oh the social security taxes and medicare taxes may go up big time but i cant see tax rates.also look at how the brackets are raised every year.
It's ironic that your poster name is "mathjak". It doesn't matter what you or anyone else thinks or believes-- it's all about the math. Opinions & forecasts are easy. Math is hard, and if you don't do it then analysis is impossible.
Everyone has to stop looking over everyone else's shoulders and do their own math. For example, some people get pensions when they're not working, but not until a certain starting age. In our case, even if the tax brackets continue their current policy of CPI indexing and the rates don't change, when spouse's pension starts then we'll be in a higher tax bracket. That tax bracket may even shoot up again when we have to start taking RMDs. We'll also be paying taxes on our Social Security distributions whether or not we delay taking them.
So we've started converting our IRAs to Roths now-- when we have nearly zero earned income, a huge mortgage-interest deduction, and a bit of room to the top of the 15% tax bracket. Other side benefits include paying the taxes out of taxable cap gains (effectively boosting the size of the Roth by not taking the conversion taxes out of it), taking SS when we want to instead of when the tax impact will be lowest, and not having to deal with RMD calculations. I can put numbers on a spreadsheet and conclude that a Roth conversion is a good deal, no matter how much I think or believe.
I don't like paying taxes before they're due, but I don't mind paying some now if there's a reasonable possibility that I can avoid paying more later. Will taxes be raised over the next few years? That may be possible, and it's certainly more likely than taxes being reduced (or even staying the same) for the rest of my life. Could Congress change the entire tax code or mess with tax-free withdrawals of Roth IRAs? Sure, but I don't think it's likely enough to make me feel good about staying with conventional IRAs. No matter how hard I think or believe I don't expect my efforts to have a measurable effect on Congressional gridlock or the vested interests in the current tax code.
Ironically we'll probably skip a Roth conversion in 2009 and make our unearned income look as pitiful as possible. The goal will be to turn in a world-class FAFSA for our kid's college scholarship applications. I can do the math on that one, too, without having to think or believe, and you won't find that issue covered by a conversion calcuator.
WRBT said:
Also on Roth - isn't it true that if (heaven forbid) you really needed the cash you can take out your contributions no penalty and no taxes.
Yes.