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Old 01-16-2013, 01:16 PM   #121
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Fatter and drunker, god willing....
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Old 01-16-2013, 01:17 PM   #122
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I was pleased with my predictions, but think maybe that I don't know as well how the next 5 will play out. Like FIREd, I just don't think the path is quite as clear. I know DH will be quitting his job, but whether he'll go back to work after a year off is hard to say. I'm planning to work another 5, but who knows if something else will present itself. I guess I am in less sure mode as for predictions--must be a byproduct of the 40s.
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Old 01-16-2013, 03:12 PM   #123
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I took a seven year break from management jobs to work a lesser paying job in a field that interested me (stock brokerage). It turned out to be very valuable experience that will serve me well for the rest of my life. I then returned to management with new vigor. Money isn't everything, I think you are on the right path, afterall it worked for me! Best. Joe
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Old 01-16-2013, 03:34 PM   #124
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I wasn't on this forum five years ago, but I can certainly visualize what I would have said. Did my ER thing at 55, so five years ago, I had been retired for six years already.

At that time, I expected DW to hang it up any day, since the stress of w*rk was already starting to get to her. Much to my surprise, she stuck it out for another two years before deciding enough was enough.

As it happened, just about the time she was getting ready to give notice, she learned of an opening in the same place doing something she had enjoyed doing many years previously, at half the salary and half the stress of her current job. She decided that she enjoyed the social aspects of w*rking enough to go for it, and has pretty much enjoyed the last three years in that role.

Finally, she has admitted that the time has come, so she will retire for real this coming summer. It won't be early retirement, but she's beginning to look forward to it, so that's good enough for me.

For the next five years, I see us doing lots of travel and generally living the good life while we're still able to enjoy it to the fullest. Already booked an Alaskan cruise and starting to look into visiting some of the parts of Europe we haven't been to yet.

Financially, we're set. Pensions cover nearly all our essential living expenses, so our WR will be low, at least after we have some fun with it over the next couple of years.

The only thing I need to work on in the short term is to continue simplifying the portfolio so it can run on autopilot most of the time and give me the space to take up another hobby or two.
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Old 01-16-2013, 03:39 PM   #125
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My wife and I both expect to retire almost exactly 2 yrs from now, now in 5 yrs we will have been retired for 3 yrs. We will have sold our house and moved to Florida near relatives. Our son will have graduated high school and hopefully be a freshman in college. Since he is out of school we will have started the extensive travel that we have been planning for many yrs, including a semi perpetual travel type lifestyle where we move from place to place for a year or so and then come back to home base. DW plans to soak her brain with knowledge by going to culinary school, taking photography classes, ect. I plan to be less ambitious.
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Old 01-16-2013, 03:48 PM   #126
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I also wasn't here 5 years ago - but want to get in on it for the next 5 year predictions...

5 years from now I'll be 56 and I sure as heck had better be retired.

I predict my husband will retire Jan or Feb of 2014.

I predict I will continue to work till I am laid off or turn 55 - whichever is first.

I predict my employer of the past 18 years will have been bought/sold/acquired/spun off at least 3 more times. (I'm on my 7th corporate name on my paycheck... and 8th has been announced but deal hasn't closed yet - with continuous employment for 18 years.)

I predict our house will be paid off when hubby retires. (It's down to a manageable lump sum payoff now... but cash flow and taxes suggest it's better to wait.

I predict I'll be maxing my 401k and catchup 401k till I'm no longer employed.

I predict my kids will still be driving each other and me crazy... but one will be preparing to leave for college. (I'm old to have kids so young.)
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Old 01-16-2013, 04:46 PM   #127
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5 years ago I would have guessed this year to be my retirement year, and it will be.

I would have thought we'd retire to Mexico, that's not in the cards as we have a son now which changed our plans.

5 years from now I'll be 4.5 years into retirement, spending lots of time driving a kid around to various activities, playing the piano a lot, and volunteering in some meaningful ways.

It makes me smile to think about it.
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Old 01-18-2013, 05:42 AM   #128
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I didn't know of this forum 5 yrs ago. But, I would have said that FIRE is my primary financial goal and that I plan to FIRE before 60; how much before being portfolio dependent.

In the past 5 yrs, I've changed jobs and moved (same MegaCorp), and am still on track to FIRE before 60. Although, I can say I wish I was already there. Soon though, very soon.
So, playing the prediction game...5 years from now:

I will have been retired ~ 3 yrs
Living on the east coast of Florida
FI & collecting a small pension but not yet collecting SS
Playing golf 3+ times/week
Walking on the beach regularly with DW and, hopefully, DCorgi
Will have learned to sail
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Old 01-18-2013, 11:05 AM   #129
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I'm a non-participant on this thread as I have trouble figuring out where I'll be in five hours, much less in five years. But I thought it might be interesting to use this thread as a place holder for this guy's prediction on where the market will be four years from now:

Quote:
What does Robertson’s model project for the next four years? A total-return of 8.2% annualized, which is slightly below the two-decade average of 8.5% — and two to three percentage points lower than the market’s return over the last century of 10% to 11% annualized.
Four years ago he predicted the market would show annual returns of 20% and he was wrong - but not by much. Using the Value Line Arithmetic Index the market averaged 23% annually in the four years ending Jan 13. Pretty darned close.

Where stock market will be in January 2017
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Old 01-18-2013, 12:45 PM   #130
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Lemme see...

A return of 8.2% means after 4% for me, and 2% or maybe 3% for inflation, my portfolio still grows a bit each year at around 1% to 2%. At that rate, how do I get to the decamillionaire level like the most optimistic lines in FIRECalc? Then, on top of that, FIRECalc results are in today's dollars.

And then, the above would require me to be 100% in equities too. Darn, maybe I am too greedy. Better cut back my expectation...
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Old 01-18-2013, 01:48 PM   #131
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I would be very happy with a consistent return of 8.2% if inflation does not rise!
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Old 01-18-2013, 03:20 PM   #132
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I would be very happy with a consistent return of 8.2% if inflation does not rise!
+1

I'd be deleriously happy with that kind of return over inflation. Despite historical returns, for some reason I have never felt confident in returns that high.
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Old 01-18-2013, 04:33 PM   #133
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Hmmm...in 5 years, I will be 59.333 years old.

Fastforward to 2018...

I have collected my deferred FERS retirement for 3.333 years.
I am .222 months away from being able to play with my Roth IRA.
I am 2.666 years away from collecting SS.

Mr B and I are established snowbirds, with a spacious apartment or condo instead of still living in my house. I no longer want to keep up with the maintenance and repairs and mowing the lawn (1.25 acres worth) at age 59.333.

I still have my 2005 Mustang and powerboat, except the boat storage guys are completely on contract to launch and retrieve it at the end of the season. I no longer have a towing vehicle, i.e did not buy another one 5 years ago.

My faithful 1992 Honda Accord is still running.
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Old 01-18-2013, 04:54 PM   #134
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In five more years....

F and I will still be in New Orleans, living in our respective homes.
We will still be thinking about moving.
I will have finally put 25,000 miles on my 2009 Venza. He will be driving a used small pickup with good gas mileage.
Retirement will still be wonderful and such fun.

Beyond that, I honestly cannot imagine what life has in store.

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Old 01-18-2013, 05:52 PM   #135
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I missed the prediction five years ago but want to get in for the next five years. I predict:
-Will have a total of 34 rentals
-Should have stockmarket investments of $1.5MM
-After 22 years at the same job, should have enough to retire if mega corp decides to give a package
-Still able to afford private school
-Beach property paid off or substantially paid off
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Old 01-18-2013, 06:06 PM   #136
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This will be a good time for me to post my goals anonymously on the Internets

In five years, I'll be 50 and DW 53, I would be 1/2 way towards goal of ESR at 55 and going to PT w*ork. Youngest will be 18 y.o. and graduating from HS. The three older children will be self sufficient and not dependent on Mom and Dad. This will help us achieve these financial goals:

Have $400k in taxable dividend account.

Continue to max out 401(k) and Roth's (assuming back door conversion remains open).

Have only primary mortgage as debt, rental either sold or paid off and any and all other debt gone.

Personal:

Be 200 lbs lighter and maintaining that weight ---> currently working on this goal with a personal trainer and diet.
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Old 01-18-2013, 07:26 PM   #137
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I'm one who missed this 5 years ago, but I think I am roughly where I would have predicted both financially and personally. So I'll try for 5 years from now:

-I'll be 46 and will have been retired for about 3-12 months.
-I'll be in the same house, or may have moved about 30 miles north for a better school district (depending on how it goes when my oldest hits 1st grade & public school in 2014). If I haven't moved yet, I will be looking to move (only reason for my current location is a 5 minute commute).
-I'll be spending the 6 hours/day that the kids are in school still decompressing from work, catching up on all the household things that I've let slide pre-retirement, enjoying a regular exercise routine, cooking slightly more than I do now, and enjoying some good books.
-I'll be spending the evenings/weekends enjoying stuff with my kids (instead of trying to occupy them enough so I can catch up on w*rk/house stuff).
-I'll wake up every morning delighted I do not have to worry about w*rk.

That's the plan (or perhaps I should say the fantasy).
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Old 01-18-2013, 09:05 PM   #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huston55 View Post

So, playing the prediction game...5 years from now:

I will have been retired ~ 3 yrs
Living on the east coast of Florida
FI & collecting a small pension but not yet collecting SS
Playing golf 3+ times/week
Walking on the beach regularly with DW and, hopefully, DCorgi
Will have learned to sail
I've got a few other predictions for you, mister!
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Old 01-19-2013, 03:57 AM   #139
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If all goes according to plan and the asset base continues to grow steadily:

1) I will have finally convinced DH we have a big enough cushion so that we can both quit our current positions and either retire or (at worse) semi-retire.

2) We will have sold our condo in China and relocated to the US, most likely purchasing a single-family home somewhere within a 30 minute drive of my family.

3) We will be pleased to have health insurance at a reasonable cost -- the Affordable Care Act and the establishment of the state health insurance exchanges is what is in many ways making this plan viable

4) If our decision is to semi-retire, I will either have found a decent job in conjunction with the move, or we will have started our own home-based business.

5) Kids will be doing well in new schools that we don't have to pay an arm and a leg for.

6) Life will be pretty darn good!
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Old 01-19-2013, 05:10 AM   #140
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DH will be 66 and I'll be 60, both retired in 7/2013.
We have kept health up and even improved a bit, exercising regularly.
We will have travelled a lot. Per year one trip longer than 4 weeks, one long bike tour and smaller trips whenever something too good to pass pops up or the weather is right or... or... or...
We have used 20% of our savings to bridge the gap till my pension kicks in (at 60,5).
Life is good and will be good then.
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