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Old 12-04-2015, 09:21 AM   #21
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I do not think I will be able to explain myself well so I will retract what I said. I do plan to get insurance but would like to have money for health just in case.
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Old 12-04-2015, 09:25 AM   #22
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Things will probably be much clearer in late 2017 early 2018.
Things will be very clear on November 9, 2016.
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Old 12-04-2015, 09:35 AM   #23
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After that I'd try to find a part-time job that allowed me in their plan, or look at one of the options of other states, or possibly another country. I'd really have to weigh the choice of moving vs. taking a job especially if it was full-time. Since I don't expect to be faced with that choice, I'm not going to spend any time worrying about it.
Indeed. I was mostly retired after getting laid off by Megacorp in 2013, and by accident in the last few months I wound up with a part time job with full FEHB medical benefits. It's a few more hours a week than I'd like to work, but given what is happening to individual insurance, both with political pressures to dismantle a lot of the ACA and with the PPOs drying up and leaving us with only crappy HMO options on the Marketplace, I guess I'd better feel fortunate that I have a half-time job with great medical benefits. Given the uncertainty in the health insurance arena, it's probably worth holding on to. Not many people are getting that deal.
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Old 12-04-2015, 09:44 AM   #24
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I just read this article about the possibility the ACA could be repealed in the future if certain political conditions exist.

Senate Votes to Repeal ACA for the First Time

(You may have to register to read that article.)


I don't want this to turn into a political debate. What I want to know is, if you are counting on the ACA in order to retire early, how do you deal with the uncertainty that it may be pulled out from under you once retired?

With my medical history there is no way I am insurable on the regular market. The thought that it could be taken away from me makes me very scared to pull the fully FIRED trigger (plan is for husband to retire in 2018, the year he turns 55). Should I be looking at contingency plans for how to deal with this if it happens after we retire? Or is the only contingency plan go back to work full-time for coverage? Do high-risk pools still exist?

I don't want to overreact, but I am a planner, so I want to think through how we'd handle this, if it happens. Or, is it not possible to plan for it, and we just have to take the leap, hope for the best, and know we'll find a way somehow if it happens?
We retired in the pre Obamacare days (2003) and found that we were unable to purchase individual health care policies at any price due to pre existing conditions. What we ended up doing was to create a small hobby business and then as a business, we were able to purchase a group policy (for a group of 2!) Lousy, very expensive policy but it was better than nothing. Obamacare was a godsend. I suppose that approach would still be an option if Obamacare were to be repealed.
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Old 12-04-2015, 09:46 AM   #25
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it's a known unknown, so you need to assign some probability of the event occurring - pick a number....
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Old 12-04-2015, 09:49 AM   #26
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it's a known unknown, so you need to assign some probability of the event occurring - pick a number....
This may well be true, but the problem is that we can't really come up with a "Plan B" or even a "Plan C" if we have *no* idea what the landscape would look like after significant pieces of the law were repealed or radically changed. Some economic and political uncertainties you can deal with by hedging your bets; not so much here.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 12-04-2015, 09:56 AM   #27
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This may well be true, but the problem is that we can't really come up with a "Plan B" or even a "Plan C" if we have *no* idea what the landscape would look like after significant pieces of the law were repealed or radically changed. Some economic and political uncertainties you can deal with by hedging your bets; not so much here.
how about "well there's a 5% chance I'm going to have to spend another $40K a year on healthcare"? or something similar? that's just an example, not my best estimate


one could also return to w*rk to get HI....


I would anticipate a two-year delay of the Cadillac tax, not an outright repeal of ACA, just my two cents
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Old 12-04-2015, 09:56 AM   #28
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....

There is a reason why medical costs are the number one reason for bankruptcy.

....
Getting a little far afield, but this is probably not correct, even though one tends to see it employed quite a bit. Himmelstein/Warren, et al., is generally the source referenced in support, but Dranove and Millenson pretty much destroyed their methodology.

Maybe there is a more recent/better study out there?
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Old 12-04-2015, 10:07 AM   #29
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We started our semi-ER before the ACA and went on COBRA. Our health care costs were a big budget item but affordable. Our second year of COBRA and our post COBRA policy (captive market prices) our premiums alone were over 2K a month for poor coverage with high deductibles, and we were put through hell trying to even sign up for that. (Legally policies had to be offered that did not exclude pre-existing conditions, but in practice the insurance companies seemed to try their best not to comply because they knew only those with pre-existing conditions would choose such expensive, poor coverage policies.) We had one year with a major surgery and the total health expenses and premiums were close to $50K total out of pocket for us.

There was a way to have "group" coverage (no pre-existing condition exceptions) before with a small business of one or two employees (depending on your state's definition of a group). For us it would have been two, and that was our plan B. We also considered getting a job with insurance, moving to a universal coverage state or an EU country (there are at least a couple in the Caribbean.)

I am not sure what we would do now as we are off our one time move to a post COBRA policy because of the ACA, so there is no going back to that option.
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Old 12-04-2015, 10:11 AM   #30
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how about "well there's a 5% chance I'm going to have to spend another $40K a year on healthcare"? or something similar? that's just an example, not my best estimate
If you knew the OP's history then you'd maybe appreciate the type of costs she would be looking at, and why she is concerned. I don't think $40k/year on healthcare would cover the situation she found herself in a few years ago if she had no health insurance.

I have breast cancer. :-(((
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Old 12-04-2015, 10:16 AM   #31
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If you knew the OP's history then you'd maybe appreciate the type of costs she would be looking at, and why she is concerned. I don't think $40k/year on healthcare would cover the situation she found herself in a few years ago if she had no health insurance.

I have breast cancer. :-(((
No I didn't and I'm sorry to hear that. Thanks for pointing that out.

I wasn't trying to be sardonic that's just how I approach things.
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Old 12-04-2015, 10:19 AM   #32
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I believe the only remotely likely scenario any young ERer need be concerned with is a price hike for health insurance premiums. No one is talking about going back to the days when pre-existing conditions could effectively make you uninsurable. All the proposals I have heard of involve what amount to variations on the ACA theme. Less subsidies, openness to less comprehensive insurance options, one year delays on enrollment eligibility for people who choose not to get insurance, etc. The insurance companies would go nuts if legislation simply cancelled the existing structure with no replacement.
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Old 12-04-2015, 10:26 AM   #33
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Well, if they do end subsidies, I hope they do it for everyone. When military, government and private sector start getting taxed on their employer provided insurance it will be an eye opener.
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Old 12-04-2015, 11:46 AM   #34
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We retired in the pre Obamacare days (2003) and found that we were unable to purchase individual health care policies at any price due to pre existing conditions. What we ended up doing was to create a small hobby business and then as a business, we were able to purchase a group policy (for a group of 2!) Lousy, very expensive policy but it was better than nothing. Obamacare was a godsend. I suppose that approach would still be an option if Obamacare were to be repealed.
That's my plan.
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Old 12-04-2015, 01:04 PM   #35
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When I ERed in late 2008, it was a few days before that year's election of Obama. While I had lined up a reasonably affordable individual HI plan for 2009 (about $470 a month in the HI-hostile state of New York), I was very glad Obama made good on his promise to pass health insurance reform (ACA). By 2011, my so-called affordable HI plan had risen nearly 50%, to just under $700 a month. (At that rate of increase, I'd be paying $5,000 a month in 10 years, pretty much killing my ER.)

In early 2011, I switched to a bare-bones hospital-only plan. It didn't cost much (about $200 a month) but it left me badly underinsured. My plan was to keep it through the end of 2013 when I could get a more affordable plan through the NY Marketplace (exchange). The plan I am in now, but will be changing next month, was a decent plan whose flaws didn't become exposed until earlier this year when I, for the first time in my life, became sick and had to be hospitalized for 2 weeks.

I now have a pre-existing condition and am taking a costly drug ($10 a pill per day) which is covered or mostly covered. I would absolutely dread losing the ACA and either be woefully underinsured or be paying through the nose for an individual plan which covered my new pre-existing condition (if one existed). My whole ER would be in danger because making it to age 65 (Medicare age) financially intact would become a real challenge. I have a good stockpile of money but how could I budget for 20-25% annual increases in premiums as well as high OOP costs for my expensive drug?
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Old 12-04-2015, 01:11 PM   #36
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I now have a pre-existing condition and am taking a costly drug ($10 a pill per day) which is covered or mostly covered.
same boat - on xarelto here, permenantly
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Old 12-04-2015, 01:18 PM   #37
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I am in the red state that had blue governor so we have state run exchange, heard today on the radio that after this year election where conservative won that post - he is already planning to close state exchange, end medicare expansion and push all to federal exchange. observers say that because exchange was set by executive order, nothing will stop new governor to end it the same way go figure ...
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Old 12-04-2015, 01:26 PM   #38
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It will be interesting to see what KY will do with the new Governor.
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Old 12-04-2015, 01:33 PM   #39
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In her OP simple girl asked to leave politics out of the discussion, we should respect her wishes and stay on topic...
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Old 12-04-2015, 01:39 PM   #40
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It's worst than just a cancelling ACA, based on prices and decline of providers, ACA is collapsing under its own weight, even with Obama still president.



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