Any chartists, you bailing while you can.

[misterantsypants]

Gonna get me flamed, but I see a reversion to the mean within months that will make 2008 look like a good year.

I don't claim amazing math skills, nor clairvoyance, but this simple look should cause caution, no, no panic.

Go to market watch.com and select advanced chart.
Plot 5 years of Dow, then plot 10 years and then plot All Data. First two are not scary, third is terrifying, at least to me. Does anyone believe the market will continue the growth that the 2008-2018 timeframe shows?

Do your own assessment, but note that if you use a ruler and do: dbl tops/dbl bottoms, things are deceiving, if you look at the actual curve in Excel, do you think a large reversion is coming. It is unsustainable in my amatuer opinion.

Would love to hear opinions, especially countering views and reasoning.

Hoping this is considered as a "time to think it anew".

 

[bloom2708]

If you have the correct mix of stocks/bonds for your age, risk tolerance and progress on your goals, then just stop looking and researching.

You may be right. You may be wrong. You have to guess correct now to get out and you have to guess correct later when you "feel" the bottom.

A similar thread was likely posted in 2015, 2016, 2017 and now 2018. At some point you will be right to some degree or another. Fear and feelings are no way to invest.

 

[flintnational]

So, when do you get out of the market?
When do you get back in the market?
You have to be correct twice for timing to be of any value.

Or, you can pick an asset allocation and stick with it through the market cycle. No decisions required.

 

[sengsational]

Now is the time to adjust your exposure so you can stomach a real bear. If there's a chance you'll bail before the recovery or won't live long enough for the recovery, correct your allocation "permanently".

 

[kite_rider]

I'm no 'chartist', but there seem to be plenty of red flags out there for people with lots of exposure to US equities and real estate. This article has plenty of charts to keep you up at night.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessec...alth-is-experiencing-an-unsustainable-bubble/

I'll break with the other advice you've been given so far and suggest that you take some gains (if you have them) and put it into something safe.

For the record; I felt the same way last year and you could point out all of the gains you would have had if you hadn't sold. But the way I see it is that 2017 was a good year anyway. If you sell more now, 2018 will also go down in the books as another good year.

 

[joeea]

Gonna get me flamed, but I see a reversion to the mean within months that will make 2008 look like a good year.

Sounds bad.

I see dead people.

 

[misterantsypants]

So, when do you get out of the market?
When do you get back in the market?
You have to be correct twice for timing to be of any value.

Or, you can pick an asset allocation and stick with it through the market cycle. No decisions required.

I did not have enough money to matter at the time, but did notice the charts.

Post was offered as opinion to consider, I am not heavily in the market, mostly "other" assets. Do own lots of ETF index funds and that is my dilemma, not pulling the plug yet.
But my crystal ball says early 1919 will be unlike now.

 

[misterantsypants]

Now is the time to adjust your exposure so you can stomach a real bear. If there's a chance you'll bail before the recovery or won't live long enough for the recovery, correct your allocation "permanently".

Dang, you continue to shred dude, vagabond and awareness, good combo!

 

[misterantsypants]

I'm no 'chartist', but there seem to be plenty of red flags out there for people with lots of exposure to US equities and real estate. This article has plenty of charts to keep you up at night.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessec...alth-is-experiencing-an-unsustainable-bubble/

I'll break with the other advice you've been given so far and suggest that you take some gains (if you have them) and put it into something safe.

For the record; I felt the same way last year and you could point out all of the gains you would have had if you hadn't sold. But the way I see it is that 2017 was a good year anyway. If you sell more now, 2018 will also go down in the books as another good year.

Exactly, riding the wave is great, but when we have to bail, leash tight as hell, and hit the coral reef and the board is shattered and we swim to the nearest distant shore, the joy of the ride is over big-time.

 

[bloom2708]

I am not heavily in the market, mostly "other" assets. Do own lots of ETF index funds and that is my dilemma, not pulling the plug yet.

You are not heavily in the market but own lots of ETF index funds?

Explain how ETF index funds are not "in the market"?

Maybe it is a Friday.

 

[target2019]

This thread needs input from Mark Hulbert.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...erdue-for-a-one-day-5-or-10-plunge-2018-10-18

 

[griffithee]

I absolutely agree with you that sometime in the future there will be a huge crash. Probably absolutely devastating to the economy, peoples lives, quality of life. Problem is, I dont know when. I dont really know how to read the tea leaves. So, I can only plan for the worst and hope for the best. Best of luck to everyone.

 

[misterantsypants]

You are not heavily in the market but own lots of ETF index funds?

Explain how ETF index funds are not "in the market"?

Maybe it is a Friday.

UHH, maybe I have $500 in 20 funds, so is that not pretty light in the market and yes, it is Friday.

 

[dtbach]

UHH, maybe I have $500 in 20 funds, so is that not pretty light in the market and yes, it is Friday.

Geez, I have that much in my wallet right now. Why should we listen to you? You don't have anything in the market and for all we know, not much in anything else either. No info here for me.

 

[braumeister]

I Do own lots of ETF index funds

I know what an ETF is, what an index is, what a fund is.

What exactly is an ETF index fund?

 

[misterantsypants]

I absolutely agree with you that sometime in the future there will be a huge crash. Probably absolutely devastating to the economy, peoples lives, quality of life. Problem is, I dont know when. I dont really know how to read the tea leaves. So, I can only plan for the worst and hope for the best. Best of luck to everyone.

I don't know either, my post is to suggest awareness of exponential growth in the market is not possible.

 

[misterantsypants]

I know what an ETF is, what an index is, what a fund is.

What exactly is an ETF index fund?

Look at VTI, it is a Vanguard ETF Index Fund, tracking:
The CRSP US Total Market Index represents approximately 100% of investable

So this ETF is by the way is much better investment than a similar Fund because is has low ER, and sells more credibly.
Hope I got that right.

 

[misterantsypants]

Geez, I have that much in my wallet right now. Why should we listen to you? You don't have anything in the market and for all we know, not much in anything else either. No info here for me.

Evidently offended you, but I said "maybe" and you extrapolated, "if no info", so enjoying your goodbye, enjoy your self?

 

[MichaelB]

Hope I got that right.

An investment banker discussing stock market charts would know for sure.

 

[braumeister]

Look at VTI, it is a Vanguard ETF Index Fund,
...
Hope I got that right.

Well, you got in the neighborhood of right.

Sort of like when you get cash from an ATM machine.

 

[misterantsypants]

An investment banker discussing stock market charts would know for sure.

Investment banking that I did was looking for investors to fund new buildings, malls, other large developments. Very little stock market related investing.

 

[nash031]

I can only hope that you are right, and that the market drops, say 90% in the next couple of weeks before a nice steady return bull.

 

[misterantsypants]

I can only hope that you are right, and that the market drops, say 90% in the next couple of weeks before a nice steady return bull.

Exactly, in 2008 it was obviously not a sustainable market, dropped 52%, bad for the holders, great for new investors, same in 2019 coming. The same 2008 folks will sleep on their puffy portfolio till the whoosh comes.

Let's agree to end this post and reconvene in mid-2019.

 

[mrWinter]

Gonna get me flamed, but I see a reversion to the mean within months that will make 2008 look like a good year.

I don't claim amazing math skills, nor clairvoyance, but this simple look should cause caution, no, no panic.

Go to market watch.com and select advanced chart.
Plot 5 years of Dow, then plot 10 years and then plot All Data. First two are not scary, third is terrifying, at least to me. Does anyone believe the market will continue the growth that the 2008-2018 timeframe shows?

Do your own assessment, but note that if you use a ruler and do: dbl tops/dbl bottoms, things are deceiving, if you look at the actual curve in Excel, do you think a large reversion is coming. It is unsustainable in my amatuer opinion.

Would love to hear opinions, especially countering views and reasoning.

Hoping this is considered as a "time to think it anew".

Can you explain what is terrifying? I'm not a chartist, nor do I really know what that means, nor do I understand many terms on that chard (Volume, MACD, MACD-Signal, MACD-Hist), the simple moving average at least I get. The 'All' only goes back to 1987 for me, is that what you are looking at too?

 

[misterantsypants]

An investment banker discussing stock market charts would know for sure.

Michael, where do find postings that I said I knew stock markets, I clearly have said my job was private capital/venture and neither are remotely related to the stock market, as most know.

In my OP I said I was an amateur investor. Why attack me?