Any chartists, you bailing while you can.

[braumeister]

In my OP I said I was an amateur investor. Why attack me?

If I may refresh your memory, what you actually said in your OP was

I used my dad's cronies to get an investment banking position at a Goldman Sachs subsidiary in LA.

 

[OldShooter]

I know what an ETF is, what an index is, what a fund is.

What exactly is an ETF index fund?

It is an ETF that tracks an index, of course. Not all ETFs are index funds; some are actively managed, a fact that many people are not aware of.

 

[braumeister]

It is an ETF that tracks an index, of course. Not all ETFs are index funds; some are actively managed, a fact that many people are not aware of.

Obviously, I was too subtle.
The F in ETF stands for Fund. An ETF Fund is a redundancy.

I tried to make that clear with my reference to an ATM machine. The M in ATM stands for Machine.

I'll go away now.

 

[W2R]

Gonna get me flamed, but I see a reversion to the mean within months that will make 2008 look like a good year.

I don't claim amazing math skills, nor clairvoyance, but this simple look should cause caution, no, no panic.

Go to market watch.com and select advanced chart.
Plot 5 years of Dow, then plot 10 years and then plot All Data. First two are not scary, third is terrifying, at least to me. Does anyone believe the market will continue the growth that the 2008-2018 timeframe shows?

Do your own assessment, but note that if you use a ruler and do: dbl tops/dbl bottoms, things are deceiving, if you look at the actual curve in Excel, do you think a large reversion is coming. It is unsustainable in my amatuer opinion.

Would love to hear opinions, especially countering views and reasoning.

Hoping this is considered as a "time to think it anew".

The market goes up, the market goes down.

SOME DAY it is going to drop a whole lot again, as much as or worse than it did in 2008-2009. And in fact the reverse will be true some day, too.

Could be in months. Two months? 78 months? Hmm, that's nice and open ended. Probably a good idea because time limited prophecies are a fool's game.

As other have pointed out, guessing about this is also a fool's game. I'm no fool and I'm not guessing. I'm ready for whatever happens or doesn't happen. Are you? Better think about it.

Risk tolerance, AA, diversification, belt and suspenders, etc.

 

[OldShooter]

Obviously, I was too subtle.
The F in ETF stands for Fund. An ETF Fund is a redundancy. ...

Too subtle for me anyway.

I'll admit too that it is kind of a hot button for me when people (especially financial authors) refer to "ETF" as if all were index funds. As in "an ETF strategy" --- a phrase I heard from a Merrill guy who was quite proud of his investing prowess.

 

[Oz investor]

I know what an ETF is, what an index is, what a fund is.

What exactly is an ETF index fund?

an ETF focused on a particular index ( such as the S&P 500 )

ETFs now can focus on a wide variety of themes and assets ( fixed interest , cyber-security , high yield , capital growth , ethical companies , etc etc )

basically any flavor of ice cream you can think of .

 

[Oz investor]

also some Exchanged Traded offerings should actually called ETPs as the portfolio basket contains no shares and sometimes no real assets , just CFDs and other derivatives

 

[imoldernu]

I feel like a fly on the wall, when it comes to this stuff. With nothing to lose or gain, the market is just a fascinating ongoing adventure for me. I read what is written here, and follow Charles Hugh Smith just because he's easy to understand and makes sense to me.

Guess you could say, an interested - disinterested party. I like parties.

 

[misterantsypants]

If I may refresh your memory, what you actually said in your OP was

You obviously missed "subsidiary". Nothing to do with GS Brokerage, but peace.

 

[misterantsypants]

I know what an ETF is, what an index is, what a fund is.

What exactly is an ETF index fund?

Are you serious or just having a covert harassment of me?

 

[braumeister]

Are you serious or just having a covert harassment of me?

Perfectly serious. You just haven't figured it out yet. Think about it.

 

[target2019]

I can't get away from the possibility that I am a chartist. I like charts!

 

[flintnational]

I can't get away from the possibility that I am a chartist. I like charts!

Pie charts perhaps?

Its okay unless the charts start telling you what to do.

 

[Oz investor]

I can't get away from the possibility that I am a chartist. I like charts!

good for you ,

i am more of an Elliot Wave follower , but will glance at charts to give me a second opinion on my instincts .

my theory on charts are if they are effective the big end of town ( and machines ) are all over them , taking out much of the advantage and increasing risk ... the investment whiz-kid trader is getting the best prices .

the market is quite capable of over-reacting in both directions ( but when )

 

[bingybear]

this has been brought up for several years.. So what is different now? I have no doubt we will have a correction... or worse. This year? Next? don't know when to jump.

 

[HI Bill]

I'm only concerned about a major market crash from two obvious risks (which I consider inevitable):

1) WW III/major world conflict
2) The US debt becoming unserviceable (e.g., like Greece, we are unable to repay the interest on the debt). I consider this an eventuality, but just haven't tried to figure out when the day will come!

In the far recesses of my mind, I'm also concerned that there may be a world-wide event like a new catastrauphic disease, a direct large asteroid hit, or a supervolcanoe erputing, but then we'd have much larger problems than just our stocks crashing.

 

[HI Bill]

Now is the time to adjust your exposure so you can stomach a real bear. If there's a chance you'll bail before the recovery or won't live long enough for the recovery, correct your allocation "permanently".

Interesting percentages. Shows that the international markets weren't safe, and the smallest losses were in the S&P.

 

[ERD50]

... Does anyone believe the market will continue the growth that the 2008-2018 timeframe shows? ...

Would love to hear opinions, especially countering views and reasoning.

Hoping this is considered as a "time to think it anew".

Nothing "anew" about it. No, I would not expect the 2008-2018 growth to continue. That growth occurred after a crash. If we have another crash of that magnitude, the following decade may see a similar growth. Bulls and Bears, that's how the market goes. Nothing "anew" about it.

-ERD50

 

[redduck]

[

...Sort of like when you get cash from an ATM machine.

Obviously, I was too subtle.
The F in ETF stands for Fund. An ETF Fund is a redundancy.

I tried to make that clear with my reference to an ATM machine. The M in ATM stands for Machine.

Too subtle for me anyway.

Hey, braumeister got me twice in one thread.

 

[misterantsypants]

A try at explaining my post.

CHART

Get a ruler or just eyeball. From 2009 to 2016 (8 years) the market increased from 6,500 to 16,500 or 10,000 points increase, close to historical winner. Now eyeball 2017 to 2018, it went from 16,500 to 26,000 or 10,000 point increase.

So it took 8 years, now it is taking 2 years, hard to believe it will continue that trend.

Now if you are curious, print that chart and leave room on the right side. Draw a line thru the mean of the 2009-2016 data and extend it out, then do the same for 2017-2018. Call them line A and line B.

My prediction is the market will drop in the first quarter from line A to line B. That is, reversion to the mean at its best.

Put your predictions out and mid 2019 lets have a thread where we admit we were wrong, just for fun.

My financial is 40%ish venture capital, 40%ish private equity and 20%ish ETFs. Sort of Warren Buffety, own what you know.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

A try at explaining my post.

CHART

Get a ruler or just eyeball. From 2009 to 2016 (8 years) the market increased from 6,500 to 16,500 or 10,000 points increase, close to historical winner. Now eyeball 2017 to 2018, it went from 16,500 to 26,000 or 10,000 point increase.

So it took 8 years, now it is taking 2 years, hard to believe it will continue that trend.

Now if you are curious, print that chart and leave room on the right side. Draw a line thru the mean of the 2009-2016 data and extend it out, then do the same for 2017-2018. Call them line A and line B.

My prediction is the market will drop in the first quarter from line A to line B. That is, reversion to the mean at its best.

Put your predictions out and mid 2019 lets have a thread where we admit we were wrong, just for fun.

My financial is 40%ish venture capital, 40%ish private equity and 20%ish ETFs. Sort of Warren Buffety, own what you know.

I don't do this just for fun.

If you think the market is going to fall off a cliff, ACT ON IT. Sell your funds and go short.

As an aside, points are meaningless, it is the rate of change that has meaning. Here's an alternative picture, log scale with a trend line included:

 

[OldShooter]

... My prediction is the market will drop in the first quarter from line A to line B. ...

Please provide a comprehensive list of your predictions over the past ten or twenty years and how they turned out.

If you have any statistical data showing that technical analysis has any more predictive value than astrology, please provide that as well.

Absent a statistically valid track record, this is just more chattering of the sort that is constantly available on the internet. In aggregate it predicts pretty much every possible future event.

 

[ERD50]

A try at explaining my post.

CHART

Get a ruler or just eyeball. From 2009 to 2016 (8 years) the market increased from 6,500 to 16,500 or 10,000 points increase, close to historical winner. Now eyeball 2017 to 2018, it went from 16,500 to 26,000 or 10,000 point increase.

So it took 8 years, now it is taking 2 years, hard to believe it will continue that trend.

Now if you are curious, print that chart and leave room on the right side. Draw a line thru the mean of the 2009-2016 data and extend it out, then do the same for 2017-2018. Call them line A and line B.

My prediction is the market will drop in the first quarter from line A to line B. That is, reversion to the mean at its best. ....

See my note on "points" below, but how 'bout you give us specific numbers for your prediction, rather than asking us to draw the lines? If I take numeric averages, it looks like you are predicting a 46% drop in Q1 2019? If it happens this quarter, are you 'wrong'?

It's possible. I just don't see enough evidence to act on it, and if there were that much evidence, I suspect it would have already made most of that drop, making the whole act of 'predicting' pretty meaningless.

Maybe I missed it, do you have an action plan? Did I see that you aren't doing anything now, you will wait till we are closer to Q1 2019?

... As an aside, points are meaningless, it is the rate of change that has meaning. Here's an alternative picture, log scale with a trend line included:

It's hardly an 'aside' it is fundamental to any analysis. The earlier period was a ~154% gain, the later period, a ~ 58% gain.

... Put your predictions out and mid 2019 lets have a thread where we admit we were wrong, just for fun. ....

OK, and my prediction will be correct.

The market, in 2019, will go up, go down, or maybe stay the same. And that is what I will 'act' upon (if taking no action can be considered an act).

-ERD50

 

[misterantsypants]

See my note on "points" below, but how 'bout you give us specific numbers for your prediction, rather than asking us to draw the lines? If I take numeric averages, it looks like you are predicting a 46% drop in Q1 2019? If it happens this quarter, are you 'wrong'?

It's possible. I just don't see enough evidence to act on it, and if there were that much evidence, I suspect it would have already made most of that drop, making the whole act of 'predicting' pretty meaningless.

Maybe I missed it, do you have an action plan? Did I see that you aren't doing anything now, you will wait till we are closer to Q1 2019?



It's hardly an 'aside' it is fundamental to any analysis. The earlier period was a ~154% gain, the later period, a ~ 58% gain.




OK, and my prediction will be correct.

The market, in 2019, will go up, go down, or maybe stay the same. And that is what I will 'act' upon (if taking no action can be considered an act).

-ERD50

Exactly, my prediction is 46% in February. But you prediction is more plausible than mine.

My plane is to leave only $800.000 in the market, take the proceeds of sold ETFs and buy a nice home or condo in Melbourne, AU at Eureka Tower, get a resident visa and rent the condo when not there. 3 months there, 9 month rented. Australian friend rents his unit for 5k per month, nice income flow.

 

[W2R]

OK, and my prediction will be correct.

The market, in 2019, will go up, go down, or maybe stay the same. And that is what I will 'act' upon (if taking no action can be considered an act).

-ERD50

Amazing! That is EXACTLY what my crystal ball says, too. I actually have one that I found years ago in a dusty, mysterious old antique store in rural Louisiana (see below for a photo of it, that I have posted many times).

I created a plan of action for various eventualities (perhaps better labeled as a plan of non-action?), back when I devised my very first ever written financial plan. I guess nearly all newbies actually get off their a$$ and DO this at some point, right? Anyway, all that was, is, or will be necessary, in 2008-2009, since then, or in possibly worse or better times to come, is to stick to my plan. It's not rocket science, folks.