Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
anybody smell smoke?
Old 06-24-2018, 04:01 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 200
anybody smell smoke?

Had an odd feeling this morning.
I've been watching short term brokered CD rates and bank savings rate climb steadily... Oct 2017 a 1yr CD was 1.5%, today its 2.4%... .1% increase a month on average. As a ratio, thats a pretty steep climb.



Since everything is interconnected, something else has got to be starting to crack.


I'll admit to a significant bias to an implosion. If things were so great, central banks would not be printing money and propping up the stock market with the funds.

But... today something just feels "funny".

Anybody else smell smoke?
__________________

Spock is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-24-2018, 04:08 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 44,331
"Feelings" are dangerous when it comes to investing.
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

Charter resident of the lumpen slums of cyberspace

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2018, 04:11 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9,238
I am told that the economy is just smokin' along nowadays.
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2018, 05:47 PM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
bjorn2bwild's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Western US
Posts: 773
Central banks can remain solvent longer than markets can remain rational.
__________________
I thought I wanted a career, turns out I just wanted pay checks.
bjorn2bwild is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2018, 08:51 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 69
That's a lot of intuition and feelings for someone who calls himself Spock.
Svensk Anga is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2018, 08:58 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Keim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Moscow
Posts: 1,219
Quote:
Originally Posted by Svensk Anga View Post
That's a lot of intuition and feelings for someone who calls himself Spock.
It's his human side, Jim.
__________________
You can't enlighten the unconscious.
But you can hit'em upside the head a few times to make sure they are really out...
Keim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2018, 09:01 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,720
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock View Post
Had an odd feeling this morning.

I'll admit to a significant bias to an implosion.

... today something just feels "funny".

Anybody else smell smoke?
Nope. Maybe you are thinking too hard?
__________________
Old enough to know better.
joeea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2018, 09:46 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
VanWinkle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Brighton
Posts: 741
No smoke, just mirrors
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
VanWinkle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2018, 10:37 PM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
RobbieB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Central CA
Posts: 3,622
I smell the smoke from my lump charcoal slow cooking the pork spare ribs in the big green egg.
__________________
Retired at 59 in 2014. Should have done it sooner but I worried too much.
RobbieB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2018, 06:48 AM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
Blueskies123's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Miami
Posts: 228
If interest rates are going up because of an improving economy then it may not be as bad as it sounds. But you are right, everything is interconnected. You have to watch the dollar and emerging markets.
I am staying the course.
__________________
FIRE July 2015
Blueskies123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2018, 07:09 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 19,544
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock View Post
.... Anybody else smell smoke?
Not at all... in fact, as others have pointed out, interest rates are behaving as expected, the economy improves, inflation is a concern and the Fed increases rates, lifting off the accelerator. Perhaps the speed of the impact on 1 year CDs is more than expected, but that is a nuance.

If you smell smoke, perhaps you are looking for fire.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...60/35/5 AA
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2018, 07:31 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 19,851
I think the market ran up too fast recently, but I’ve been rebalancing on the way up, and I expect to rebalance on the way down. I tend to expect the market to go down. Even if the market drops steeply, things would go back to where they were a few years ago well after the 2009 recovery.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2018, 07:38 AM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 19,544
+1 I did do a number of small rebalancings last year to "lock in" equity gains as it seemed to me that equities were rising too fast... and did a small one just last week but that one was just between dometic and foreign equities.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...60/35/5 AA
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2018, 08:30 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Red Badger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Piedmont Region
Posts: 1,271
Sniff.
Sniff-sniff.
Sniff-sniff-sniff.

Nope. No smoke, but maybe some market timing or speculation.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
Red Badger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2018, 10:45 AM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 200
Quote:
Originally Posted by Svensk Anga View Post
That's a lot of intuition and feelings for someone who calls himself Spock.
Its Pon Farr week...
Spock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2018, 03:06 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 1,416
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
I am told that the economy is just smokin' along nowadays.

Especially in Canada eh? Oh that's just a skunk I smell.
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 99/0/1% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 50/25/25% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): 50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-29-2018, 04:00 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9,238
The 2nd quarter ended, so maybe there was a bit of so-called "window dressing" here at the end.

Today was odd to me with the fade only in US equities here in the late afternoon, but foreign equities kept on smokin'.
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2018, 07:37 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,275
The Fed balance sheet roll off is sucking 30 billion a month, increasing to 50 billion in Q4, out of the banking system. Don't fight the Fed.
jim584672 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2018, 09:55 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 7,734
More inflation = people demanding higher interest rates.


Inflation is currently pushing 2.5% for the last 12 months.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-30-2018, 10:40 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 2,070
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut View Post
More inflation = people demanding higher interest rates.


Inflation is currently pushing 2.5% for the last 12 months.
If the Fed's guideline is 2%, then why keep raising the Fed rates?
__________________

__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Dogs, Power Outage, Smoke, Fire, Grow House TromboneAl Other topics 46 11-01-2010 01:06 PM
allergy to second-hand smoke? simple girl Health and Early Retirement 29 01-14-2009 12:43 PM
Turkey - smoke that sucker! unclemick Other topics 29 11-28-2008 12:21 PM
Smoke detector malfunction Corporateburnout Other topics 15 01-08-2007 01:22 PM
Smoke Alarms wabmester Other topics 6 01-08-2005 05:33 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:14 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.