Bitcoin - World's 30th largest Currency

Sold 100% of my Crypto today. Waiting on the CBOE Futures determination, it could make Bitcoin go up in the short term but also maybe finally burst the bubble. Just thoughts for the upcoming Dec 10 or so announcement
 
In the article below Larry Swedroe provides a good overview of Bitcoin, what it is and the investment risks entailed. Zweig's article is more generic.

Jazon Zweig's take, Bitcoin, Ignorance and You

"The gravity-defying rise of bitcoin has been drawing in new money from people who appear to know nothing about the cryptocurrency other than the fact that its price has gone up a lot in a hurry."

Larry Swedroe's take, Bitcoin: Investment or Bubble?

"To start, let’s agree that the blockchain technology behind bitcoin is a game-changer, and the technology will play a big role in the future. However, that says nothing about bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, for many reasons."
 
If your opinion is that governments can shut down crypto currencies, I'd like to understand how they'd do that. They might be able to prevent or de-anonymize conversation to their manipulated fiat currency, but nothing stopping individuals or foreign organizations from doing what they want, irrespective of what governments want.
 
joeea said:
This is the same James Altucher who lost $15 million on internet investments in two years, right?
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Yes the very same, went to bankruptcy and since 2009 has made 20 million dollars back again, starting from zero. He also suffered from depression and had a nervous breakdown. His ideas are compelling to me, his hair is bad. He has a great ability to see chains of events in my review of his work, reccomendations and ability to admit his failings.
 
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sengsational said:
If your opinion is that governments can shut down crypto currencies, I'd like to understand how they'd do that. They might be able to prevent or de-anonymize conversation to their manipulated fiat currency, but nothing stopping individuals or foreign organizations from doing what they want, irrespective of what governments want.
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Besides making anonymity unworkable to convert to "real" cash.

I could see governments making the use of crypto currencies illegal tender for real transactions of exchange, like how using heroin is illegal for purchasing apartment complexes, paying taxes, etc.

Of course folks can still privately exchange illegal currencies, but the translation of currency into real items is often the main use of money, so governments could knock down the value of crypto currencies.
 

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Unbelievable the growth of Bitcoin. Simply amazing. But am I going to buy some? No. Not a chance. I don't understand it . At some point it has to readjust to a more reasonable price I would think. But I don't know. I couldn't even begin to answer the question if the growth is sustainable or not.

My guess would be no. Usually by the time an investment is recognized as great, the big money has already been made it seems.
 
Bitcoin price

Here is a "classic bubble" chart from this Forbes article. Here is the punch line, the article was written in 2013. So I will say it, Maybe its different this time! My guess is we are at the "enthusiasm" stage on the chart. Bloomberg and Glenn Beck were both talking about Bitcoin this morning. Taxi cab drivers will be giving bitcoin advice in the coming weeks. I think we are quickly moving into the public stage. But, maybe it is different this time. No, really! :)
 

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I think one of the problems with this bubble is that there probably is not enough volume... so demand is much higher than supply, the price goes up... people that are holding it feel richer...

But, unless these people sell some to book gains they have the possibility of losing it all....

Once it starts to drop in price and people believe it is going down to a reasonable price the supply side will overwhelm the buy side and it will go down as fast as it went up.... maybe faster...
 
$17,400.

This is more fun than work and I don't even own any Bitcoin myself. Happy for my friends who do though.
 
These prices will encourage someone to invent new bitcoin mining tech. When quantum computers expand the bitcoin supply, prices will collapse, if they haven't yet.
 
I have a haircut scheduled in about 3 hours. I'll see what the word from the wise is then!
 
Fermion said:
It is not a currency.
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I wonder what a proper definition of a currency is, needs to be government sanctioned? If it means a store of value for prior work performed, someone in a country like Venezuela where their "Currency" depreciates daily would have a means to have value stored in such a way as noone could know what they own. It seems to me the recent rise is being fueled by hedge funds and major financial institutions realizing they have to have exposure to Bitcoins or their year end financials will not have them in there and as such they would have to explain why if they are a hedge fund they didn't see the value in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is becoming a global currency it needs to get to 2-3 trillion in total value in order to be able to transact international business and could possibly just be in discovery mode by people that think they count after years of mocking it. Parabolic moves are incredible, almost always have a terminal point so this one should be interesting.

The early adopters fell into two categories .. rich geeks buying for long term seeing the value of the bitcoin technology and relatively poor people with no other means to have their money saved because it becomes worthless and they did not have access to the world government banking system to have their money saved.

Reminds me of the sage Warren Buffet telling Katy Perry last May that Bitcoin was a fraud and not to put any money into it, up 20X since then about a 30 year BRKA run to earn that amount.
 
I just hope it doesn't drag everything down with it, or worse, the government has to bail people out who were stupid and put their retirement money into it.
 
Sunset said:
Besides making anonymity unworkable to convert to "real" cash.

I could see governments making the use of crypto currencies illegal tender for real transactions of exchange, like how using heroin is illegal for purchasing apartment complexes, paying taxes, etc.

Of course folks can still privately exchange illegal currencies, but the translation of currency into real items is often the main use of money, so governments could knock down the value of crypto currencies.
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There will always be a way to convert bitcoin to any world currency you'd like. Maybe not directly in all cases, but eventually, if the desire is there. Governments, a subset of governments, that is, might introduced friction into that process, true. My statement was in regards to the idea that if a government decided to "shut down" bitcoin, that it could do so. It can't. It's decentralized. There's no one target. True, it can declare that transacting in bitcoin within entities in their country is illegal. That's hardly a "shut down", because I can still transact with entities not in their country. I can use my bitcoin buy to diamonds from a broker in some other country and later walk out of a shop in NYC with a pocket full of US currency. If I follow import laws, I haven't even broken any laws. Friction introduced by laws can impact the value of bitcoin because less friction means wider adoption. But application of laws will not "shut down" bitcoin.
 
GrayHare said:
These prices will encourage someone to invent new bitcoin mining tech. When quantum computers expand the bitcoin supply, prices will collapse, if they haven't yet.
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From what I have heard on TV, there is a limit to the number that can be mined in total... so the supply will be constrained to that number...

Also, someone said that there were something like 3 mill lost forever... that is over $50 billion lost!!!! It was funny that The Big Bang Theory had a show about them losing their bitcoins...



Found an article...

Lost Bitcoins: 4 Million Bitcoins Gone Forever Study Says | Fortune
 
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