Leonidas
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
A few weeks ago I was a centimeter away from buying some USO because I had given up fighting the trend in oil. Although I kept saying "it's topped", crude kept going like the Energizer Rabbit and I finally said "maybe it's time to buy". But I hesitated for two reasons: 1) I said the same thing in 2000 about tech when I got tired of seeing other undeserving individuals making beau coup dollars in stocks of companies that weren't making any money.* And, 2) I knew oil shouldn't be that high. Somewhere down the road maybe, but not now, not today.
So, while in the midst of this discussion http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/its-official-oil-boom-over-36710.html I was ready to pull the trigger and get my feet wet with some USO, but that nagging little voice inside my head kept saying "No". And that's when I bought some DUG - not as much as I now wish that I had bought - as a short trade that I could get out of quickly if it went sour.
Here is the question I have this morning. I still think crude futures are too high at the moment and there are a lot of people that jumped on that train at the last minute as I almost did. If oil goes down, as it has been lately and as it is doing strongly this morning, some of those people are going to lose faith and bail, and if it happens enough oil will stop walking down the stairs and decide to take the elevator. I'm not saying prices will go into freefall, but my simple broad strokes style of trend line analysis makes me think that the price is really close to breaking support in a big way. Oil could go to 100ish and the USO down to below $90.
I'm considering buying some more DUG.
Your thoughts?
*I said that right up until the moment before I bought in (maybe it's different this time). Which was right before it all went to hell.
So, while in the midst of this discussion http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/its-official-oil-boom-over-36710.html I was ready to pull the trigger and get my feet wet with some USO, but that nagging little voice inside my head kept saying "No". And that's when I bought some DUG - not as much as I now wish that I had bought - as a short trade that I could get out of quickly if it went sour.
Here is the question I have this morning. I still think crude futures are too high at the moment and there are a lot of people that jumped on that train at the last minute as I almost did. If oil goes down, as it has been lately and as it is doing strongly this morning, some of those people are going to lose faith and bail, and if it happens enough oil will stop walking down the stairs and decide to take the elevator. I'm not saying prices will go into freefall, but my simple broad strokes style of trend line analysis makes me think that the price is really close to breaking support in a big way. Oil could go to 100ish and the USO down to below $90.
I'm considering buying some more DUG.
Your thoughts?
*I said that right up until the moment before I bought in (maybe it's different this time). Which was right before it all went to hell.