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Old 11-06-2015, 10:54 AM   #21
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Trying to be patient and entering XOM at a discount is completely a frustrating experience. Yes I know they are upstream, downstream and nat gas... But really... They sold for $100 a share when oil was over $100 and now oil is half that, XOM is mid 80s? I don't get it... No deal there, but what do I know...


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Since they make a lot of their money from other activities, their profits are not in trouble as you might think....


Also, they live on a margin.... IOW, they do not 'own' the oil.... they have to pay someone for the oil... that is a cost of goods.... so that cost went down when oil went down... their margin on refined products might be squeezed some, but not the 50% of the drop in oil...

I am not concerned that XOM is going out of business in my lifetime... right now there is NOTHING that can replace oil at a kind of cost effective manner... and there is nothing that I can see that is proposed to do so either.... nope, oil will be king for many decades (heck, maybe a century or two)....

Now I know that some black swan can be discovered... heck, maybe cold fusion will be proven and it can be made cheaply.... still, it that happens, converting to that will take time.... so, if that happens, I will sell XOM.... then again, maybe they will discover it....
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Old 11-06-2015, 10:58 AM   #22
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This is one of the reasons I started the thread...is XOM overvalued @ $45 oil in the light of the attack on their credibility with respect to "climate change" (aka,"global warming")?



I'm just looking for our membership points of view as we are all astute investors and intelligent people.

Im gonna ignore your last sentence as it would disqualify me from posting. So.... I am wondering this...Is the price being unduly supported too much by its "pristine balance sheet" and people still wanting to be in energy, but "safe energy"? It just seems to me it should be trading at least where you suggested it at in lower 70s.


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Old 11-06-2015, 11:02 AM   #23
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Im gonna ignore your last sentence as it would disqualify me from posting. So.... I am wondering this...Is the price being unduly supported too much by its "pristine balance sheet" and people still wanting to be in energy, but "safe energy"? It just seems to me it should be trading at least where you suggested it at in lower 70s.


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I believe XOM got as low as 68 when the market went down early Fall. I picked some up at $72 and would like to add to that. Besides having a few preferreds that you swayed me to buy , I have a few oils in my play money dividend portfolio.
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Old 11-06-2015, 11:51 AM   #24
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I hope they call everyone of us old geezers on this forum as an expert witness in this suit. Digital thermometers were invented in the late 70's, and we all remember the analog thermometers that were marked in 2 degree increments, and depended on the observer's height to get a reading. And all this "climate change" is based on a 1 degree rise in temperature over the past 140 years.

I'm long XOM and will buy more on the dips.
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Old 11-06-2015, 12:08 PM   #25
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I hope they call everyone of us old geezers on this forum as an expert witness in this suit. Digital thermometers were invented in the late 70's, and we all remember the analog thermometers that were marked in 2 degree increments, and depended on the observer's height to get a reading. And all this "climate change" is based on a 1 degree rise in temperature over the past 140 years.

I'm long XOM and will buy more on the dips.

I have no problem with climate change concept. But the man made I still don't get. We had an ice age right over where I lived. And oil is being pumped oil out of Middle East desert. Something lived there a long time ago or oil wouldn't be there. I can safely assume we didn't cause that desert to show up.
But then again I still use my "flat earth" maps.
I want to get in with XOM again, but in upper 60s. Which means I probably will never get invited to the annual shareholders meeting.


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Old 11-06-2015, 12:13 PM   #26
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All my XOM shares used to be Mobil Oil shares. I don't think I'll sell them anytime soon. Trying to figure out the cost basis would hurt my brain.


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Old 11-06-2015, 12:18 PM   #27
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All my XOM shares used to be Mobil Oil shares. I don't think I'll sell them anytime soon. Trying to figure out the cost basis would hurt my brain.


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I had a small amount of XOM maybe $15,000, way back in the day premerger. I had it through a DRIP. I remember just giving up and guessing with an eyeball calculation. They never challenged me on it. Probably because it was a small amount.


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Old 11-06-2015, 12:52 PM   #28
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I don't own the stock though probably the funds and ETFs I hold probably do.

Most of the states are run by the GOP, particularly the Gulf states. So you don't have to worry about other state AGs going after the oil companies.

Oil industry can die off as far as I'm concerned. Especially when they're funding the denial industry.
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:07 PM   #29
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I don't own the stock though probably the funds and ETFs I hold probably do.

Most of the states are run by the GOP, particularly the Gulf states. So you don't have to worry about other state AGs going after the oil companies.

Oil industry can die off as far as I'm concerned. Especially when they're funding the denial industry.

Looks like you're getting a bit off base here.


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Old 11-06-2015, 01:13 PM   #30
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Looks like you're getting a bit off base here.


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+1. I just like having my lights stay on. How it happens, I don't care. (plus there's that 3% XOM dividend)
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Old 11-06-2015, 01:59 PM   #31
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+1. I just like having my lights stay on. How it happens, I don't care. (plus there's that 3% XOM dividend)
Agreed, it would be a pretty bleak existence without processed hydrocarbons!

A couple of the talking heads on CNBC stated the large integrated energy companies are probably overvalued at this point. Could be that noise is taking their stock prices down slowly.
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Old 11-06-2015, 02:47 PM   #32
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Given the fact that Exxon appears to have anticipated "climate change" as a risk factor in their artic drilling, I'm not sure if using the quotes around "climate change" is appropriate.

An LA times article discusses how they researched and used the data to consider climate change affects on their artic drilling.
http://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-arctic/
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The gulf between Exxon’s internal and external approach to climate change from the 1980s through the early 2000s was evident in a review of hundreds of internal documents, decades of peer-reviewed published material and dozens of interviews conducted by Columbia University’s Energy & Environmental Reporting Project and the Los Angeles Times.

Documents were obtained from the Imperial Oil collection at Calgary’s Glenbow Museum and the Exxon Mobil Historical Collection at the University of Texas at Austin’s Briscoe Center for American History.

“We considered climate change in a number of operational and planning issues,” said Brian Flannery, who was Exxon’s in-house climate science advisor from 1980 to 2011. In a recent interview, he described the company’s internal effort to study the effects of global warming as a competitive necessity: “If you don’t do it, and your competitors do, you’re at a loss.”
As far as stock price... I suspect it will have an effect... but so did the gulf oil spill, and other issues they've had. They are a huge multinational corporation with business operations worldwide. Lots of factors to impact stock prices.
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:20 PM   #33
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In the recent past, XOM stock was 90% + of my net worth. I knew this was unwise thing so I'm down to 100 shares. XOM is about 8% of the S&P 500 IIRC so I still own a sizable amount in mutual funds.
I see the vilification of big oil as normal, sometimes deservedly so. These climate change investigations are nothing but political grandstanding.
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:32 PM   #34
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Agreed, it would be a pretty bleak existence without processed hydrocarbons!

A couple of the talking heads on CNBC stated the large integrated energy companies are probably overvalued at this point. Could be that noise is taking their stock prices down slowly.
How are extreme weather events like droughts, heat waves, heavy rains for that existence?
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:36 PM   #35
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How are extreme weather events like droughts, heat waves, heavy rains for that existence?

Seems to me we've always had those in our history.


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Old 11-06-2015, 03:45 PM   #36
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Seems to me we've always had those in our history.


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Especially here in Texas!
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:53 PM   #37
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I've always wondered how the climate change protesters arrived at the protest.
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Old 11-06-2015, 03:56 PM   #38
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I've always wondered how the climate change protesters arrived at the protest.

Probably Uber


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Old 11-06-2015, 03:58 PM   #39
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Seems to me we've always had those in our history.


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Seems it was a problem even Noah had to deal with back in the day.


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Old 11-06-2015, 04:05 PM   #40
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Getting off topic again but I'll take my chances with storms etc. Just keep my damn lights on!

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