Facebook stock

[younginvestor2013]

Just curious if anyone here is bullish on facebook stock in the next 1-3 years? They have done well since IPOing in 2012, and have done well YTD.

I think they will do well in the next 5 years. Maybe I am overly optimistic, but when I see how much my family, friends, and other peers use it, I cannot help but imagine they will only improve. They seem to be doing a good job of generating ad revenues, too.

 

[nash031]

The death of Facebook is the fact that young people aren't using it anymore along with the proliferation of adblocking software. Pretty sure you missed the growth on that one, but that's JMO.

Now, they do own Instagram and that's where the young folks are flocking these days, but... again, JMO.

 

[younginvestor2013]

I'm not sure I fully agree with you on that one, but of course my social network only represents a very small piece of the pie.

I consider myself "young" (26). I log into facebook via my mobile device and/or the internet at least 10 times a day, and from the frequency of my friend's posts and other activity on facebook, I would say they do the same.

Just curious where you heard or saw this?

 

[aja8888]

I'm not sure I fully agree with you on that one, but of course my social network only represents a very small piece of the pie.

I consider myself "young" (26). I log into facebook via my mobile device and/or the internet at least 10 times a day, and from the frequency of my friend's posts and other activity on facebook, I would say they do the same.

Just curious where you heard or saw this?

How much money are you sending Facebook since they rely on user and ad revenue for there operations? Personally, I don't know of anyone that sends them money.

 

[Andre1969]

I dabbled in Facebook a little last year, buying 25 shares in late April for $61.26 per share. It's up to about $94.42 now. So, I'm happy, although that tiny amount ain't gonna make me rich, unless it goes skyrocketing and splitting and such.

 

[alistair]

Millennials rarely use fb. They are more snapchat, instagram and other apps. Long term growth for fb will be difficult.
IMHO, they need to diversify their product, or move into completely new fields. They are doing a little of that with the internet.org effort, but that is stumbling and really an effort to push people into fb.

 

[nash031]

I'm not sure I fully agree with you on that one, but of course my social network only represents a very small piece of the pie.

I consider myself "young" (26). I log into facebook via my mobile device and/or the internet at least 10 times a day, and from the frequency of my friend's posts and other activity on facebook, I would say they do the same.

Just curious where you heard or saw this?

You're older than you think. When I say "young", I mean college, older HS folks... the future... the ones that are going to be using this tech in 5-10 years. It's not what I'm hearing... it's what I am seeing.

*IF* you invest in Facebook, you'd best be familiar with the other stuff they own (Instagram, Whatsapp, etc.) because an awful lot of traffic is shifting around on social media.

Personally? I'd stay away because I think a lot of the growth is gone and I don't see a clear path to additional revenue that might make them a value stock in the future, but that's JMO.

 

[Totoro]

The space in which Facebook operates is highly volatile and unpredictable. They may rampage onwards or collapse in the next 10 years.

There's not enough smarts in the world to predict which it will be in my view. That's why I stay away from all of them with my money. I do like to watch.

Tech companies geared towards consumers in general fall into this category, especially when there is a low barrier to entry (one reason why Intel has so much staying power, huge capital costs). Nokia and Myspace are just two examples in a long list of bumpy rides. Yahoo, altavista, netscape, ..

Extinction is the norm.

 

[Lucantes]

I would not say that I am "bullish" or "bearish" on them, but I do own them and am currently not planning on selling yet.
This is the only actual individual stock that I picked and own.
I currently have an unrealized gain of 170%, but the shares were bought only with my "fun" investment money: not anything that I need to live on, or retire on for that matter!

 

[KMyer]

I would not say that I am "bullish" or "bearish" on them, but I do own them and am currently not planning on selling yet.
This is the only actual individual stock that I picked and own.
I currently have an unrealized gain of 170%, but the shares were bought only with my "fun" investment money: not anything that I need to live on, or retire on for that matter!

I share your sentiment and opinion. Fortunately I luckily got in at $22 per share on almost a lark but the ride has been enjoyable so far. I wish I would have made a bigger investment in hindsight. I remember the price falling and falling right after the IPO.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Lucantes]

My average share cost is about $35, so I can't complain too much.
I have considered selling it, just to clear it off my books but I think as long as it is doing okay I will let it remain and revisit the issue once we have retired in 2017 (maybe actually in 2018 once my retired tax situation is clearer as my taxes in 2017 will be quite high).

 

[Koolau]

(Probably because I don't use any of the current social media - other than this forum) I look at the social media phenomenon and especially the current specific social media as being "fadish." I've often suggested that others watch what I do and then do the opposite when it comes to investing, so take my view with a shaker of salt. Still, I've watched our kids go through "phases" in social media. How someone would ever guess the "winner(s)" in the next 3 to 5 years, I have no idea. I'd come closer betting that some "new" social media fad would come along and supplant all the current ones within that time period. Naturally, YMMV.

 

[Lucantes]

Go Team Go!

Is just a fun play for me but am currently at +221% Gain as of the close on Friday!

have no idea if/when/how to decide to get out or not, still tentatively looking at 2018 to consider this.

 

[Looking4Ward]

I bought some AOL, oops I mean Facebook, shortly after the IPO. Then when it started falling a few months later I decided to sell all of my AOL, oops I mean Facebook.

I've been looking back at that decision with regret, should have held on to it, but I doubt I'll be buying anymore AOL, oops I mean Facebook.

 

[Senator]

I bought some AOL, oops I mean Facebook, shortly after the IPO. Then when it started falling a few months later I decided to sell all of my AOL, oops I mean Facebook.

I've been looking back at that decision with regret, should have held on to it, but I doubt I'll be buying anymore AOL, oops I mean Facebook.

I discontinued buying regular stock a few years ago. But sometimes still get the urge.

I was going to buy FB at 18, shortly after the IPO, and skipped that as I am an index investor. Almost bought FIT at $32, skipped that too. TWTR at ~$27 looked great, but declined for the same reason.

I think I am up a bit overall.

 

[DrRoy]

I am also an index investor and do not buy individual stocks. You might get lucky and pick a rocket but you will probably have more than enough unexpected duds to underperform overall.

 

[Fedup]

I don't even have Facebook account except the one I created with no friends to play WSOP poker. All free entertainment.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Lucantes]

Currently at +261%....now if I would have just had 20/20 hindsight and invested everything I had back in 2012 well.....

 

[Aerides]

I bought about 25 shares on IPO day at $41 and felt stupid for about a year, since then feel quite smug! (and yes wishing I bought more - but if I had it would all be worth $20)

 

[B0bL0blaw]

I bought 40 shares at $27.38 back in 2012. I sold 20 shares when it hit $100/share, and I'm gonna hold on to the other 20 to see what happens.


Edited to add: As to whether I'm bearish or bullish. I am generally an index investor, but I like to dabble in stock-picking with about 10% of my portfolio. I subscribe to the notion (I think this is a Buffett principle) that any company that will still be around in 30 years, it's good to be bullish on. I understand the naysayers feeling about FB longevity, but I do believe it will be around in some capacity in 30 years. But who knows? I've already locked in doubling my money when I sold 20 shares @100, and the remaining 20 shares I am playing with "house money."

 

[Ticker]

I am very bullish on FB. Keep in mind that they are an international player, delving in virtual reality, AI, satellite connectivity to the internet for foreign third world countries, and one of the most privacy invasive players on the net. I recently bought when I noticed the ads were multiplying like never before, figured they'd be reporting revenues in line with that increase. Their algorithms seem to connect all of the stray wires.

While the US may grow tired of them, they have lots of other places to grow, and hence, lots of more revenue to generate.

 

[RobbieB]

I own facebook because my FA thinks I should and he bought it.

I hate facebook, am not a member and never will be.

I made a lot of dough owning facebook -

 

[KMyer]

Currently at +261%....now if I would have just had 20/20 hindsight and invested everything I had back in 2012 well.....

I agree. I'm at +469% since I bought the stock in 2012. I keep wondering how long the good times can last in such an unpredictable industry. I will probably soon donate some of my shares to charity to at least "recoup" my original investment. I wish I would have bought more shares.

 

[tmm99]

I bought 40 shares at $27.38 back in 2012. I sold 20 shares when it hit $100/share, and I'm gonna hold on to the other 20 to see what happens.

I bought at $32.35 back in the day with my casino money so only 20 shares... I only joined FB last year... I will definitely sell them before the price dips below $32.35, but I think I will leave them there a while longer...

 

[triangle]

Just based on CNBC and SeekingAlpha there appear to be a fair number of facebook bulls. Maybe enough to keep the stock rising for the near term. Bulls who view Mark Zuckerberg as a genius almost on par with Steve Jobs. FB advertising revenue and profit growth rates do merit the stocks current valuation if one sees that continuing, but I am a bit skeptical of the long term growth in advertising revenue. I believe that FB has been overpaying for its acquisitions and that while they have been very good in scaling up and out with their platform they also benefited from stodgy competitors like MySpace. The network effect of FB is enormous and key to their valuation and keeping out potential new comers. But how many people, especially older people with a family and career want to share so much of themselves that FB can continue to monetize them for profit? This story sums what I don't like about them: Facebook recommended that this psychiatrist’s patients friend each other

They have been doing interesting things in other countries, for instance partnering with service providers in the Philippines to provide free data for smartphones to access FB, only while other data usage required payment from the consumer. Talk about competitive lock-in advantage. They offered the same thing in India but were blocked due to anti-competitive concerns from the government.