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Headed For A Double Dip Recession?
Old 09-14-2009, 06:33 PM   #1
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Headed For A Double Dip Recession?

I'm looking at my portfolio and we've come back a long way quickly from the bottom of last year. I'm also reading a lot of reports that economic indicators don't look so good, there's a lot of inside selling, etc. So- you all think we are headed for a double dip, or prolonged stagnation?
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Old 09-14-2009, 07:12 PM   #2
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I'm looking at my portfolio and we've come back a long way quickly from the bottom of last year. I'm also reading a lot of reports that economic indicators don't look so good, there's a lot of inside selling, etc. So- you all think we are headed for a double dip, or prolonged stagnation?
I don't know. But I do know that every time I have made really good gains with stocks it has been on a backdrop of good insider buying. It is absolutely impossible to guess what will happen; that is why I won't participate in polls like "Where will the Dow be at year end?"

A rational goal is not to guess what will happen, but to assess whether you are buying good enough quality cheaply enough that over time the odds are likely strongly in your favor.

Ha
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Old 09-14-2009, 08:58 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by novaman View Post
I'm looking at my portfolio and we've come back a long way quickly from the bottom of last year. I'm also reading a lot of reports that economic indicators don't look so good, there's a lot of inside selling, etc. So- you all think we are headed for a double dip, or prolonged stagnation?
I don't know where you are getting reports of economic indicators not looking so good. Most of them have been improving for a while.

Insiders were apparently doing massive buying in March, so I suppose they are taking some profits now. Sounds prudent to me.

According to these guys a double-dip recession is unlikely US Poised For Stronger Recovery Than Expected

Audrey
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Old 09-14-2009, 09:26 PM   #4
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I bought a bunch of stock on the dip and decided to sell today to lock in the profit-

So you think parking it in a bond fund would be a good move now?
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Old 09-14-2009, 10:22 PM   #5
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If interest rates start to climb , bond funds will get beat-up rather quickly.
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Old 09-14-2009, 10:29 PM   #6
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I also thought economic indicators were improving. There are a lot of talking heads out there getting to do point-counter-point discussions on the financial stations that are confusing.
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Old 09-14-2009, 11:04 PM   #7
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If interest rates start to climb , bond funds will get beat-up rather quickly.
At the risk of sounding argumentative, I disagree with your statement. At least 2 factors will affect the way a bond fund responds to rising interest rates: the fund's duration and the speed at which interest rates are rising. For example, as the Feds increased interest rates from 1% to 5.25% between 2003 and 2006, many bond funds continued to experience positive total returns, albeit often lower than those experienced in periods of declining interest rates.
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Old 10-01-2009, 04:01 PM   #8
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Here we go.....(?)
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Old 10-01-2009, 04:31 PM   #9
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Here we go.....(?)
Octophobia in the markets today, perhaps?
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Old 10-01-2009, 05:59 PM   #10
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My ouija board is in the shop, but I think this rally had to take a pause sometime...
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:00 PM   #11
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My ouija board is in the shop, but I think this rally had to take a pause sometime...
Sure, but -- it is a coincidence that the first -2% day (or worse) in a long time during this rally happens on October 1? Maybe, maybe not, but a lot of people are afraid of being in the market in October, even though September is a worse month historically.
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Old 10-01-2009, 08:40 PM   #12
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No financial maven here.

Reading all the reasons/guesses for when and why the market goes up/down reminds me of the long list of excuses reasons fishermen use for why the fish do('nt) bite. Usually in hindsight some are dead on the mark.

I'm letting it ride.
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Old 10-01-2009, 09:14 PM   #13
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I don't like what I am seeing in the treasury market. Long term rates have been dropping lately, and that's not exactly bullish. I am glad I took some profits from equities in September, just in case.
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Old 10-02-2009, 05:47 AM   #14
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I don't like what I am seeing in the treasury market. Long term rates have been dropping lately, and that's not exactly bullish. I am glad I took some profits from equities in September, just in case.
Yeah I got real antsy a few days after I started this thread so I totally cashed out.
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Old 10-02-2009, 05:53 AM   #15
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I also thought economic indicators were improving. There are a lot of talking heads out there getting to do point-counter-point discussions on the financial stations that are confusing.
I'm not sure what sources you are getting your news from but I've seen a lot of indication that things are not good.

I've also come to realize that the mainstream press is really painting a picture to try and help make this administration look good - so they are putting the positive spin on the economy- like a bunch of cheerleaders on the sidelines of the Detroit lions....or maybe the Washington Redskins.
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Old 10-16-2009, 05:11 PM   #16
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Its like beting on the dogs - damned if you do damned if you dont... If the market tanks youll be laughing, if it booms you will be kicking your self.... I used this strategy early on in my investing and got sick of being out of the market on to many up swings.....

Which is why now i only invest in good companies, with low debt, high ROE , below value , with good dividends... that way if the market tanks my dividend stream allows me to buy lots at good value.... Using this the GFC was a god send to me and a double dip would be even better......(but im not wishing for it as I know the pain it inflicts on others).

I do however have around 5% of my portfolio that I try to have invested in a very small fledgling company or two with rediculous growth prospects. At the moment I have that in AusTex Oil and Carnarvon Petrolium. Both have just transitioned from oil explorers to producers. Carnarvon has had its price explosion over the last two years and Austex is primed and ready to go.... Thats the only gambling I do and its well and trully informed gambling, which reduces the risk... I get out of them when the ROE stops climbing by more then 10% p.a. and I look for another one. If im worried they wont continue the run, i get my money back and leave the gains on the table....

But as far as pulling your whole money in and out of the market, its almost impossible to get it right enough times to be ahead.
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Old 10-23-2009, 08:36 PM   #17
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The writing on the wall is pretty clear as I see it. The economy is not so good . As a matter of fact the US is in real trouble.


I wish I knew where to put my money. Bank failures top 100, only part of industry woes - Yahoo! News

I am trying to figure out what move to make next.
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Old 10-23-2009, 09:55 PM   #18
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IMHO, we are still very much in a preservation of capital mode. Now is not the time to be reaching for yield. Anyone who thinks the problems associated with the massive credit deleveraging we are experiencing is over is living in a dream world.

The response of the FED/Treasury has only re-postponed the correction and IMHO making the inevitable adjustment that much worse. That having been said, I suspect the idiots calling the shoots on fiscal/monetary policy can keep this insanity going much longer than I think. YMMV.
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Old 10-23-2009, 11:41 PM   #19
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Old 10-23-2009, 11:56 PM   #20
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I am trying to figure out what move to make next.
oldtrig
yeah this was sort of discussed on another thread, but it looks like there aren't any good choices to make right now. I'm sitting on a lot of cash. If hyperinflation occurs I'm screwed.
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