How do you know when the end is near?

In 2006, I came across more than one construction worker moonlighting as home loan brokers. That was a clue of things to come in 2007-2008.
 
Sell Consolidated! Buy Amalgamated!

Back in ought-seven, it was "When cab drivers start giving you investment advice".
 
I go to a good number of classic car shows and swap meets throughout the year. I remember, in October of 2007, having this feeling of dread in the air. One thing, that seemed different, was there was an unusually high number of Corvettes for sale at this particular swap meet. Usually, the Corvette crowd tends to stick to Corvette-specific meets and swaps, and I get the feeling they don't change hands as often as a lot of other classic cars do. The Corvette seems like one of those types of cars that people lust for all their lives, and then when they finally get one, they keep it until you pry it from their cold, dead fingers. So, for a bunch of them to be up for sale, that just told me something was amiss, financial-wise.
 
Back in 1999 saw a couple of articles on why owning cash and bonds was stupid. We know that ended. Recently, saw an article about there was no reason to be less than 90 percent invested in stocks. Ah-oh here we go again!
 
When a new version of the "Beardstown Ladies' Common-sense investment advice" comes out.
 
Market stuff again....that title :facepalm: I thought you meant the literal "turn out the lights" end. I was curious what posters were saying..
 
ivinsfan said:
Market stuff again....that title :facepalm: I thought you meant the literal "turn out the lights" end. I was curious what posters were saying..
Click to expand...

I figured posting in the stock forum folks would have an inkling about it before visiting.
 
njhowie said:
I figured posting in the stock forum folks would have an inkling about it before visiting.
Click to expand...

HaHa,, I just read the thread titles under new posts, you made me chuckle..
 
When their legs start turning a mottled grey with dark spots, then the end is near,


I didn't take the time to read the rest of the messages, because I am simply euphoric about how the market continues to hit new highs, and I am near completely invested in stocks! It is like my buddies at megaCorp used to say when they retired in 1999- "Anybody can make 15% in the stock market!"
 
Quote from article:

"One of my mentors, Jeremy Delk, who's also one of the most successful people I know, literally started from scratch. In fact, he was worse off than that. He had taken a $30,000 inheritance from his dad on his 18th birthday and built it up to a portfolio valued at over $1.2 million by day trading stocks. This was prior to the dot-com bubble bursting. He was so confident during that time that he took $800,000 on margin. He was flying high. 22 years-old. In college. And making more in a day than his professors were making the entire year."

My DBI, not on my side of the family, lost DMI entire life insurance...$200K+ doing this exact thing. AND he lost in approx 2 weeks. How's that for fast work?

We had no idea he was doing that until after the fact. Great idea, right?
 
When markets tank 20% because interest rates are 0.25% above target inflation, the treasury secretary is calling big banks from Cabo while on Christmas vacation to check liquidity, and the central banks are still buying assets 11 years after a crisis.
;)
 
Most people in the media - reporters, bloggers, various experts, columnists, etc. - have very little knowledge/sense of history. Ignore them.

But, if you find ignoring them difficult read my articles:

"11 things YOU MUST DO TODAY to make sense of the modern media and avoid click bait".

and

"Ignore the investment media: Buying an InstantPot will improve your investment returns by 78%"
 
So how do you unwind a high equity % position? If you were not in the market, and decided to jump in, you would be at risk of trying to time the market. How do you create a logical exit that is not 'market timing'?
Some of my thoughts- now that we are (once again) at a market high (I use S&P as a benchmark, as that is where the majority of my investments are located)- Do you drop 5% into fixed income (Where is a decent place for that)? Then create programmed steps that say move 5% from stock to fixed every 10 days until you get to 70%?
 
"How do you know when the end is near?"

I thought my end was near when I had this song stuck in my head. And that was almost 7 years ago. So, that apprehension was wrong or at least not immediate.

 
I apologize to anyone who clicked thinking it was about something else.
 
Feel the Bern! Oh, wait...

Is it merely coincidence that this thread began on Bernie Madoff's birthday?
 
Clone said:
So how do you unwind a high equity % position? If you were not in the market, and decided to jump in, you would be at risk of trying to time the market. How do you create a logical exit that is not 'market timing'?
Some of my thoughts- now that we are (once again) at a market high (I use S&P as a benchmark, as that is where the majority of my investments are located)- Do you drop 5% into fixed income (Where is a decent place for that)? Then create programmed steps that say move 5% from stock to fixed every 10 days until you get to 70%?
Click to expand...

This is what I'm doing within IRA's as to not cause taxation issues. This is because I now feel being at 90% stock is too exposed to a prolonged downturn of stock values.

As for where to put it, that is a tough nut so I'm approaching it by buying various things: actual bonds, SPTS, BSJO (and other versions of the same type of thing), BND.
 
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