I like Oil

[aja8888]

I'd add that the more obvious dumb messes from the oil industry these days all seem to be from transporting the stuff on rail cars, especially the very light condensate.

All (or most) of that could be resolved with the building of new pipelines. Somehow, it seems to take 5 years to get a pipeline permit approved, and that excludes any lengthy private or political opposition.

The thing that is most surprising is that the general public and the elected officials seem to think properly built, periodically tested, daily monitored pipelines are more apt to cause a spill than a string of rails cars on loosely maintained railroad track.

 

[explanade]

Inhofe on Fracking, Water Contamination

But scientists we interviewed say that it doesn’t make sense to separate fracking from the entire gas and oil production process, and there is ample evidence that the overall process can cause contamination of water supplies. As we noted above, the new DOI rules cover the entire process including fracking, well casings and other activities.
Well Failures and Water Contamination
Anthony Ingraffea, a Cornell civil and environmental engineering professor, told us in a phone interview that discussing contamination related to the frack per se isn’t useful. “The simpler question to ask is, ‘Is there any instance in which oil and gas development, writ large, has contaminated peoples’ drinking water?’ And the answer is, thousands. Thousands of cases.”

 

[aja8888]

Inhofe on Fracking, Water Contamination

Absolutely! Sell your car and get a bicycle!

There are many industries that have contaminated groundwater, and farming is one of them because the farming industry is exempt from hazardous waste rules. The mining industry also gets a pass (Bevill Amendment). Like pesticides in your green beans? Cyanides in your trout stream?

 

[bld999]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/49/Pogo_-_Earth_Day_1971_poster.jpg

Walt Kelly, cartoonist.

 

[explanade]

Because other industries pollute doesn't excuse what the oil industry may be doing.

I'm just surprised that with so much money involved, people don't sue over these incidents.

Could be that local politicians are running interference to head off these suits.

 

[ERD50]

Because other industries pollute doesn't excuse what the oil industry may be doing.

...

I doubt that was his point. But everything we do has consequences. And we need to weigh those in relative terms, and improve where we can. But 'zero' ain't gonna happen.

Like he mentioned earlier, some groups oppose pipelines, but the alternatives could be much worse. So what do they accomplish? It becomes counter-productive to oppose everything.

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

Because other industries pollute doesn't excuse what the oil industry may be doing.

I'm just surprised that with so much money involved, people don't sue over these incidents.

Could be that local politicians are running interference to head off these suits.

Correct, no excuses, just showing "partners in pollution".

People do sue.

Yes on the last point. They probably get free gasoline also.

 

[explanade]

Would Keystone pipeline carry oil from the Bakken or only from Canada?

Yeah I've heard of trains exploding, catching on fire, carrying crude.

 

[Nemo2]

Would Keystone pipeline carry oil from the Bakken or only from Canada?

Keystone XL Pipeline Maps and Information | Keystone XL Pipeline

Along with transporting crude oil from Canada, the Keystone XL Pipeline will also support the significant growth of crude oil production in the United States from producers in the Bakken region of Montana and North Dakota.

This pipeline will allow Canadian and American oil producers more access to the large refining markets found in the American Midwest and along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

 

[brewer12345]

Would Keystone pipeline carry oil from the Bakken or only from Canada?

Yeah I've heard of trains exploding, catching on fire, carrying crude.

IMO, Keystone is chiefly for Canadian producers. If you want to see an environmental nightmare, google tar sands oil production. I never understood why it was in our interest to build Keystone, let alone through the Ogalalla aquifer. IMO, the Canuckistani can build their own pipeline to their Pacific Coast.

Other pipelines should be built since it is the safest, least polluting way to transport the stuff that every single one of us uses.

 

[aja8888]

IMO, Keystone is chiefly for Canadian producers. If you want to see an environmental nightmare, google tar sands oil production. I never understood why it was in our interest to build Keystone, let alone through the Ogalalla aquifer. IMO, the Canuckistani can build their own pipeline to their Pacific Coast.

Other pipelines should be built since it is the safest, least polluting way to transport the stuff that every single one of us uses.

The Keystone is additional capacity out of the tar sands region of Alberta. Enbridge already has a pipeline to it's terminal in Superior, Wisconsin that distributes about 15% of all U.S. crude imports passing through it. Superior distributes the crude east towards Ontario and New York and South via a turned around line (Spearhead (1950's built)) to Cushing. Enbridge also owns and operates the Cushing terminal.

The Keystone line is for additional Canadian crude and Bakken supplies to go south (Texas refineries) and also to feed refineries in Wood River, Ill and Patoka.

 

[CCdaCE]

I'd add that the more obvious dumb messes from the oil industry these days all seem to be from transporting the stuff on rail cars, especially the very light condensate.

Even the oil with lower vapor pressure (meeting new, proposed standards) and in newer rail cars, catches fire in a derailment. Just not as spectacularly, perhaps.

Company says oil on derailed train met new ND rules | INFORUM

-CC

 

[dallas27]

I predict we will see oil at ~$40/bl in the next 8 months, with maybe a very brief but dramatic crash into the 20's or 30's. I think there will be a story about a tanker driving in circles looking for a port to offload, or some such type event to crystallize the growing over supply building up. My bet is oil dependent countries are hurting for revenue, are going to continue to overproduce all they can to make of for the low price, exacerbate the oversupply, and in the end some government/region will be perceived as unstable, maybe a few small wars to disrupt supply and correct back to the 50's.

 

[brewer12345]

I predict we will see oil at ~$40/bl in the next 8 months, with maybe a very brief but dramatic crash into the 20's or 30's. I think there will be a story about a tanker driving in circles looking for a port to offload, or some such type event to crystallize the growing over supply building up. My bet is oil dependent countries are hurting for revenue, are going to continue to overproduce all they can to make of for the low price, exacerbate the oversupply, and in the end some government/region will be perceived as unstable, maybe a few small wars to disrupt supply and correct back to the 50's.

If oil prices go into steep contango traders intentionally charter tankers to load up and just sit there offshore. They sell forward to lock in a guaranteed profit. So they don't aimlessly circle.

At $40 or below there is basically no drilling that will happen. Can the Saudis supply the whole world? I don't think so.

 

[audreyh1]

I predict we will see oil at ~$40/bl in the next 8 months, with maybe a very brief but dramatic crash into the 20's or 30's. I think there will be a story about a tanker driving in circles looking for a port to offload, or some such type event to crystallize the growing over supply building up. My bet is oil dependent countries are hurting for revenue, are going to continue to overproduce all they can to make of for the low price, exacerbate the oversupply, and in the end some government/region will be perceived as unstable, maybe a few small wars to disrupt supply and correct back to the 50's.

Do you really think oil (WTC) will get back below $50 again this year? I guess your answer is yes.

 

[Jack_Pine]

Predicting the future price of oil is the definition of being out on a limb.

 

[aja8888]

I predict we will see oil at ~$40/bl in the next 8 months, with maybe a very brief but dramatic crash into the 20's or 30's. I think there will be a story about a tanker driving in circles looking for a port to offload, or some such type event to crystallize the growing over supply building up. My bet is oil dependent countries are hurting for revenue, are going to continue to overproduce all they can to make of for the low price, exacerbate the oversupply, and in the end some government/region will be perceived as unstable, maybe a few small wars to disrupt supply and correct back to the 50's.

I predict....



I think I need a nap now.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

This is a good article on the what's going on with Shale in response to the Saudi decision to keep pumping oil at full speed.

Saudis' Drive To Kill U.S. Shale Has Backfired - Investors.com

 

[dallas27]

I'n thinking opec is going to up the ante again, we'll see.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[aja8888]

I'n thinking opec is going to up the ante again, we'll see.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

Beside wanting to kill the U.S. shale production (which was not accomplished), the Saudi's wanted to squeeze Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which it is not clear that it has happened.

The Saudi's also have a bit of a problem on their own, and it's called reservior depletion. The big fields are in water lift (enhanced recovery) and there are no new fields to pick up the slack. They also don't have the technology (yet) to go into a new drilling program to run horizontals and frac with new technology.

It's a mess, the global oil market.

 

[explanade]

So share production is still at the same levels before the oil price drops?

Didn't the oil industry shed a lot of the jobs associated with that production over the past several months?

 

[aja8888]

So share production is still at the same levels before the oil price drops?

Didn't the oil industry shed a lot of the jobs associated with that production over the past several months?

Currently, the U.S. is producing about 9.66 million barrels per day of crude oil. This is a bit more than when the prices dropped. This production is from current complted and operating wells. What stopped, was new drilling. We are also importing crude oil to supplement our daily needs, mostly from Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico (and 20 other countries).

The jobs lost were from future drilling and production. We still need oil, and we still will drill some to maintain levels.

 

[Totoro]

Major oil players joining up to ask for global carbon price:

Shell, BP, Total Among Companies Calling For Carbon Pricing

Trying to get ahead of the curve, smart.

 

[CCdaCE]

So share production is still at the same levels before the oil price drops?

Didn't the oil industry shed a lot of the jobs associated with that production over the past several months?

There have also been tremendous efficiency gains. "Long term" (3-5 year) learning curve type gains. Shorter term operational gains.

One example is 3 years ago it took 3 months to drill, develop and complete a well. Now, best case is maybe 12 working days to drill? More fracking stages in the same/similar amount of time. Etc. Summary of all this is less workers, from more efficiency.

http://www.dtcenergygroup.com/bakken-5-year-drilling-completion-trends/

-CC

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I'm not sure I like oil anymore...

...but the dividends are still there and I can't lose much more if I hang on for a while.