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Old 08-01-2016, 03:39 PM   #1041
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There is no normal growth in US, Japan, EU and England (like pre recession state). China growth is still envy of all of the above but their GDP growth also is slowing. That was affect oil demand a lot.
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Old 08-01-2016, 03:52 PM   #1042
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There is no normal growth in US, Japan, EU and England (like pre recession state). China growth is still envy of all of the above but their GDP growth also is slowing. That was affect oil demand a lot.
US and EU are growing, and the global growth rate has picked up lately and is at it's highest level for the past 3 years.
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Old 08-01-2016, 04:03 PM   #1043
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US and EU are growing, and the global growth rate has picked up lately and is at it's highest level for the past 3 years.
If you consider 1% growth normal (by the way it could be easily manipulated by inflation number), then energy demand should be at least stable.
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Old 08-07-2016, 10:24 AM   #1044
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Energy intensity keeps dropping, so a 1% growth won't do much.

Energy use: Power slide | The Economist
https://yearbook.enerdata.net/#oil-consumption.html

I think oil consumption is still creeping up though, steadily since 2009 it seems, but only a few %.
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Old 08-11-2016, 01:13 PM   #1045
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Free oil!

Read today cheasapeake is giving away the whole barnett shale in texas portfolio for free to anyone who will take it to lower their costs.

Wow.


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I like Oil
Old 08-11-2016, 01:14 PM   #1046
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I like Oil

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Free oil!

Read today cheasapeake is giving away the whole barnett shale in texas portfolio for free to anyone who will take it to lower their costs.

Wow.




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Signs of nearing a real bottom soon?




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Old 08-11-2016, 01:15 PM   #1047
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Free oil!

Read today cheasapeake is giving away the whole barnett shale in texas portfolio for free to anyone who will take it to lower their costs.

Wow.


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It's gone. They gave the leases away. They also paid 300+ million to get out of some gas pipeline contracts.
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Old 08-12-2016, 09:27 AM   #1048
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I sure was wrong about oil. I thought surely things would be normal after three years. Maybe this is the new normal.


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Old 08-12-2016, 09:38 AM   #1049
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First post in this thread was on 11/28/14.

Wasn't the price high then, less than 2 years ago?
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Old 08-12-2016, 09:47 AM   #1050
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I sure was wrong about oil. I thought surely things would be normal after three years. Maybe this is the new normal.


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Historically, depressed oil prices (if you can figure out what that means) can last for quite a long time.

This may be truer now than ever due to the new technology of shale extraction, better formation identification techniques, horizontal drilling and improved fracturing methods.

What may influence large crude oil price swings these days may be political problems (wars, etc) or supply curtailments. But these may be short lived in the big picture.

Oil is a commodity and you have to remember that.
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Old 08-12-2016, 09:48 AM   #1051
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I sure was wrong about oil. I thought surely things would be normal after three years. Maybe this is the new normal.


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I believe it has only been two years since oil was at $100 (June/July of 2014) - so maybe you will still be right about three years?
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Old 08-12-2016, 09:54 AM   #1052
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Who knows, as I sure dont..But I did read if oil consumption stayed the same and suddenly we produced world wide 500,000 barrels less than is consumed daily it would take 15 years to burn off the stored capacity. That is a lot of oil above ground already!


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Old 08-12-2016, 10:01 AM   #1053
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Well I heard US auto sales have been roaring and now China just reported car sales up 26% in July, the biggest jump in 3 years there.
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Old 08-19-2016, 09:01 PM   #1054
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I was wrong about oil as well and it hurt. Now I agree with the chairman of BP that this is a sea change.

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Old 08-19-2016, 11:43 PM   #1055
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It is all depend on consumption, if the weather is cooler , some major well is destroyed, world instability, dollar devaluatiin etc., etc
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Old 08-20-2016, 06:07 AM   #1056
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Tale of three investments:
1. PBF - smaller refiner purchased late 2014, down 23%. It was very profitable at times, and continues to pay dividend, which has been flat for several years.
2. XOM - I watched and read for a long time. As PBF was soaring (low oil prices help refiner), XOM started touching depths as CVX and others had been doing for long stretches. A similar investment of $$ to XOM on 9/1/2015 is as profitable now as PBF is negative. XOM dividend will grow slightly this year.
3. VGENX - Since early 2013 I've placed SEP-IRA contributions here. The annual personal performance reported by Vanguard is -2.2%. Yield is +2.2% now.

Performance charts for these look very similar in 2008-2009 and 2015-2016. Expecting a rebound in 2016-2017.
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Old 08-20-2016, 07:16 AM   #1057
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Historically, depressed oil prices (if you can figure out what that means) can last for quite a long time.

This may be truer now than ever due to the new technology of shale extraction, better formation identification techniques, horizontal drilling and improved fracturing methods.

What may influence large crude oil price swings these days may be political problems (wars, etc) or supply curtailments. But these may be short lived in the big picture.

Oil is a commodity and you have to remember that.
I agree with this. Also, I am of the opinion that $100/bbl oil is not coming back anytime soon. I read somewhere, perhaps it was earlier in this long thread, that if you adjusted the pre-OPEC 1970s price of oil for inflation, you'd end up right about where we are at today. Shale extraction has much lower costs to enter than previous oil exploration options, so lots of people jumped on the bandwagon, and it was easy to get loans to go exploring when oil was at $100/bbl. Eventually supply exceeded demand, China cooled off & etc., so now we're in a period where companies that got fat on $100 oil have to resize their operations. This has happened to coal too, which is getting hammered by cheap natural gas prices, so commodity companies are taking a beating. I don't think that it is an indicator of the overall health of our economy, but the cooling effect of coming down from our $100/bbl oil high is more pronounced now than is the stimulating effect of cheaper fuel prices to the general public.
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Old 08-23-2016, 01:24 PM   #1058
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I think it might be a demographic problem, which if true we aren't getting out of it until 2035 or so...

Econimica: Why This Time is Completely, Utterly, Totally Different...Like the Difference between a Hurricane and an Ice Age
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Old 09-20-2016, 09:38 PM   #1059
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I've been telling myself for months that I'd quit swing trading CVX and XOM and start buying and holding them once they fall below a certain range. (for me that's 97 for CVX and 82 for XOM). Well they are both just about there. I'm hesitant but suspect I'll start buying and holding both of these pretty soon in small chunks, on down days, and DCA if they keep falling.

Any others considering big oil at these prices and world conditions?
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Old 09-20-2016, 10:16 PM   #1060
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Too bad gas in Cali is still pushing $3.00. Every car is getting phenomenal gas mileage now, though. I helped my little sister buy her first "new" car - a Mazda 3 with 10k miles on it. It gets 40 on the highway with a regular engine, but it's a great ride. Gas prices don't really have the sting they once did. But does the increased demand in-elasticity outweigh the decreased per capita volume?

The economy is growing so slowly, and in areas that aren't nearly fossil fuel dependent, i.e. much smaller % of their cost of production made up of oil. I understand a new, huge oil field has become extractable in west Texas due to technology advances. OPEC is a shadow of it's former self. There are fields of shale gas laying fallow waiting for oil prices to rise and make them profitable again. I say there are just too many safety valves in the short term to see any real appreciation and growth in profitability in this area. I mean, unless Israel nukes Mecca....
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