LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

Finally, a REAL market timing move: VNQ is up quite a bit in the minutes since I posted and up more than 1% since the purchase this morning.

 

[audreyh1]

Finally, a REAL market timing move: VNQ is up quite a bit in the minutes since I posted and up more than 1% since the purchase this morning.

Whoa! King Midas!

 

[LOL!]

The stupid thing is that I would have more money if I had not sold IJS in the first place on Feb 4th.

I am going to have to sell something in order to get back into balance as now I am even more overweight in equities than a couple weeks ago. So to make me pull the trigger, I will announce now that the next day VXF is up more than 0.25% and BND is down more than 0.1%, then I will submit an order to exchange from FSEVX to FSITX if there is no news (gotta watch out for FOMC announcements and any ex-dividend days ). I may submit such an order regardless of the above happening, too, but I will announce it in this thread.

 

[LOL!]

Another easy come, easy go story. I need some help pumping up VNQ, but if it drops some more, I will buy more of it!

 

[Brat]

I can hardly believe my returns YTD and my investments are very pedestrian. Hope I didn't speak too soon and hex them.

 

[LOL!]

Another day and another Greek crisis delayed successfully.

The VNQ buy has become profitable today, but with an hour to go, who knows what will happen?

The preconditions for my FSEVX to FSITX exchange have been met at the moment with BND down 0.1% and VXF up more than 0.25%. I'll wait 45 minutes to see what happens before I submit the order. Even if they are close to meeting the preconditions still, I will submit as asset allocation is now uncomfortable with recent equity gains.

EtA: Exchange order submitted. And look, a little pop in BND here at the end of the trading week.

 

[steelyman]

I'll continue to loiter in this thread and intend to update yearly performance for the IRA I described earlier.

I'm more interested in "total" (vs. "annual" or "year-to-date") return. Because that IRA has a known start date/value and no new money coming in, only MRDs going out (no control over either), is a calculation:

(current value + total of all MRDs) / starting value

the right way to go? I suppose that is "return on investment".

 

[LOL!]

I think the only legit way to calculate ROI for something that has transactions (additions, subtractions) is to use the XIRR() algorithm. That's what mutual fund companies use. XIRR is what MSMoney uses. I think it is what Quicken uses. Excel has the function.

BTW, XIRR is not what the Beardstown Ladies used.

 

[steelyman]

Thanks, LOL!

I guess I do have control over MRDs through which specific investments I choose. I've done that and all dividends/distributions are reinvested, I'll have to see how it turns out in 2015 and will compare my simple calculation to Quicken's at year-end.

 

[Brat]

I just tried out Vanguard's portfolio analysis & what-if tools. The ETF I had in mind is a value mid-cap. Then I learned that my entire portfolio is hugely over weighted in value stocks, it is encouraging me to choose growth investments.

Given the current market levels would you stick with value vs growth? (a substantial % is in Wellington Income fund).

 

[REWahoo]

I just tried out Vanguard's portfolio analysis & what-if tools. The ETF I had in mind is a value mid-cap. Then I learned that my entire portfolio is hugely over weighted in value stocks, it is encouraging me to choose growth investments.

Given the current market levels would you stick with value vs growth? (a substantial % is in Wellington Income fund).

My portfolio has been heavily weighted towards value stocks for the past two decades. I'm not planning on making any changes.

 

[LOL!]

I just tried out Vanguard's portfolio analysis & what-if tools. The ETF I had in mind is a value mid-cap. Then I learned that my entire portfolio is hugely over weighted in value stocks, it is encouraging me to choose growth investments.

Given the current market levels would you stick with value vs growth? (a substantial % is in Wellington Income fund).

My portfolio also overweights value with about 40% of equities in that column. By definition for these sorts of things, the stock universe is divided into three columns named typically Value, Blend, Growth with 33.33% in each column. So some folks would say 40% is hugely overweighted, but I would not say so.

Also Vanguard's tool imposes an all-or-nothing categorization of funds, so is useless to use in this regard. For instance, Vanguard might call the mid-cap value index ETF 100% value, when Morningstar says that it is 52% value. So be aware of Vanguard's misrepresentations.

Value has been underperforming the past few years, so who knows what will happen in the future?

 

[NW-Bound]

As stated in a post on a recent thread about our expectations of market return in 2015, I believed the market will just bounce around +- 5% this year. So, I would try to do a bit of buy-low/sell-high trying to make a bit more money for RV fuel.

In that vein, over the last few days, I have bought some bear ETFs, which are analogous to shorting stocks. The sectors I targeted are the top hot ones recently: semiconductors, biotech, and REIT. The ones I bought are 2X and 3X leveraged, so the 1.2% of portfolio I committed are amplified to perhaps 3% of portfolio.

Note that this is not a hedge of my long positions as that would require a lot more money, and I am also not bearish to make such move. This is just a lark to put a bit of money to where my mouth is. The move is based on just pure technical reasons, that is these sectors have gone up so much that I am betting people will be booking their gains and sell, and I want to front run them.

So far, I have made only a few 100's bucks. It may just turn again me, and becomes an "anti-Wheee" to cause the market to go even higher. That's OK too, as I am 70% in equities.

 

[ChiliPepr]

I think the only legit way to calculate ROI for something that has transactions (additions, subtractions) is to use the XIRR() algorithm. That's what mutual fund companies use. XIRR is what MSMoney uses. I think it is what Quicken uses. Excel has the function.

BTW, XIRR is not what the Beardstown Ladies used.

I like the Modified Dietz Method. This method allows easier comparison to indexes. It is also what I have used at work...

 

[steelyman]

I was curious and tested LOL!'s suggestion about XIRR() and its use in Quicken.

It's only 2 months into the year but Quicken matched exactly with my basic calculation on that IRA, after dividing by 6 to undo Quicken's primal need to annualize the return.

The MRD has been distributed for 2015 from that account. I'd asked them to do it early (Jan 10) and in full each year, but it actually happened on Jan 6, so there were only a couple of days the market was open. I'm guessing the match of numbers will agree after 2015 is in the books next Jan.

 

[LOL!]

I have decided that I do not like FSGDX Fidelity Spartan Advantage Global ex-US index fund as it consistently trails behind the equivalent Vanguard funds for no reason that I can see. The push over the edge was 4 separate interactions with Fidelity customer non-service reps refusing to give me information about this fund that is available for similar funds. That is, we had a failure to communicate.

So I will be exchanging my shares of FSGDX into FSITX (a total US bond fund) while at nearly the same time in other accounts I will be switching from VCSH to VEU and from VFIJX to VTIAX. I will not do these trades all at once, but over the next few weeks on days that I think I can profit from a few hours of intraday trading.

These double trades will have a net result of:
1. No more FSGDX in my portfolio.
2. VEU (all-world ex-US large-cap) and VTIAX (all-world ex-US large+small) instead of FSGDX.
3. FSITX (total bond) instead of VCSH (short-term bond) and VFIJX (GNMA)
4. No change in percentage of portfolio allocated to bonds and allocated to international.
5. A slightly lower expense ratio with hopefully a slightly better performance.

Eventually, I intend to fold up my Fidelity account and move the money elsewhere.

Once again, I post these thoughts here which helps me on the follow through. Within the last hour I have sold some VCSH today and bought VEU.

 

[LOL!]

I was curious and tested LOL!'s suggestion about XIRR() and its use in Quicken.

It's only 2 months into the year but Quicken matched exactly with my basic calculation on that IRA, after dividing by 6 to undo Quicken's primal need to annualize the return.

For a YTD return, can you set the date range from 1/1/2015 to 12/31/2015 and not have to divide?

 

[steelyman]

For a YTD return, can you set the date range from 1/1/2015 to 12/31/2015 and not have to divide?

Hmm.. I just tried that and it still seems to want to annualize. Maybe it's just that I'm not a Quicken jockey, but the reassurance even with the division is good.

Edit: that was my mistake, I'd not followed your suggestion exactly. I tried again using a custom date range that reached into the future and it came up with the same number that division by me did. Life gets easier every day!

 

[LOL!]

OK, it looks like jobs report spooked some folks. So I made another buy this morning of VEU with remaining cash raised yesterday. With that I am doubled up a little bit on international and will submit an order later today to unload about the same amount of FSGDX. I sure hope VEU goes up from here today.

My recent VNQ buy is taking it on the chin, so I blame NW-Bound on that one.

 

[NW-Bound]

Sorry if I mess up your trade.

It is too early to declare success, as anybody with experience in stock investing knows how the market can turn within a single trading day. But so far, my bearish stance on REIT is paying off 12%, and on semiconductor 4%. On biotech, the sector is down today but I am still down 8% on my bearish bet, although it is recovering. Biotech has been so strong, nothing can hurt it so far and my entry was not well-timed.

Overall, as of this writing my bets have shown a net small profit, nothing to brag about. If it is of any consolation to you, my long-term holding utility stocks have been taking it on the chin too. I think that, same as REIT, the stalwart dividend payers go down because of the interest rate hike fear brought on by the good job report. Look at bonds. And as I have more money in utility stocks than the inverse REIT ETF, I still lose beaucoup money. Hope this makes you feel better.

I will do an update when I close these bets.

 

[LOL!]

Things are not working out too well, so I will probably double-up my position in VNQ before the end of the day since it is down 3.3% today.

Edit: OK, I doubled up on VNQ, but may sell before end of day.

 

[LOL!]

OK, it looks like jobs report spooked some folks. So I made another buy this morning of VEU with remaining cash raised yesterday. With that I am doubled up a little bit on international and will submit an order later today to unload about the same amount of FSGDX. I sure hope VEU goes up from here today.

My recent VNQ buy is taking it on the chin, so I blame NW-Bound on that one.

So VEU did not go up, so lost some money there. But I kept at it anyways. In the last 15 minutes of trading, I sold more VCSH (short-term bond) and bought more VEU with it. Also submitted an order to exchange from FSGDX to FSITX. The net effect is that it looks like I sold VCSH and bought FSITX since VEU and FSGDX cancel each other out.

I'm not done with unloading FSGDX, so perhaps more action next week.

And today's newly purchased shares of VNQ closed at about where I bought them.

I wish everybody a good weekend!

 

[target2019]

So VEU did not go up, so lost some money there. But I kept at it anyways. In the last 15 minutes of trading, I sold more VCSH (short-term bond) and bought more VEU with it. Also submitted an order to exchange from FSGDX to FSITX. The net effect is that it looks like I sold VCSH and bought FSITX since VEU and FSGDX cancel each other out.

I'm not done with unloading FSGDX, so perhaps more action next week.

And today's newly purchased shares of VNQ closed at about where I bought them.

I wish everybody a good weekend!

REITs took a beating today. You did well with VNQ to avoid -3.32% on the day.

We are managing a portfolio with these:
-5.60% HTA Healthcare Trust Of America Inc
-4.07% O Realty Income Corp
-3.81% HCP HCP, Inc.

REITs are 80-90% of their yearly highs. Ouch!

 

[steelyman]

Nothing at all to do with market timing or glacial frequency trading (me).

Only a promise to use the acronym "RMD", not "MRD", in the future. I think that was a holdover from my working with one of my parents who'd hit the big age. They called them "MRD"s. They were furious they were required to take anything out!

 

[Brat]

Because I reinvest my O dividends I don't mind that it goes down.

In an effort to do a rebalance I sold one fund intending to invest it in ETF DON (mid-cap dividend). Didn't pull the trigger last week so happy to watch it go down.