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Old 03-06-2015, 11:27 AM   #321
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Things are not working out too well, so I will probably double-up my position in VNQ before the end of the day since it is down 3.3% today.

Edit: OK, I doubled up on VNQ, but may sell before end of day.
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Old 03-06-2015, 03:03 PM   #322
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OK, it looks like jobs report spooked some folks. So I made another buy this morning of VEU with remaining cash raised yesterday. With that I am doubled up a little bit on international and will submit an order later today to unload about the same amount of FSGDX. I sure hope VEU goes up from here today.

My recent VNQ buy is taking it on the chin, so I blame NW-Bound on that one.
So VEU did not go up, so lost some money there. But I kept at it anyways. In the last 15 minutes of trading, I sold more VCSH (short-term bond) and bought more VEU with it. Also submitted an order to exchange from FSGDX to FSITX. The net effect is that it looks like I sold VCSH and bought FSITX since VEU and FSGDX cancel each other out.

I'm not done with unloading FSGDX, so perhaps more action next week.

And today's newly purchased shares of VNQ closed at about where I bought them.

I wish everybody a good weekend!
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Old 03-06-2015, 04:04 PM   #323
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So VEU did not go up, so lost some money there. But I kept at it anyways. In the last 15 minutes of trading, I sold more VCSH (short-term bond) and bought more VEU with it. Also submitted an order to exchange from FSGDX to FSITX. The net effect is that it looks like I sold VCSH and bought FSITX since VEU and FSGDX cancel each other out.

I'm not done with unloading FSGDX, so perhaps more action next week.

And today's newly purchased shares of VNQ closed at about where I bought them.

I wish everybody a good weekend!
REITs took a beating today. You did well with VNQ to avoid -3.32% on the day.

We are managing a portfolio with these:
-5.60% HTA Healthcare Trust Of America Inc
-4.07% O Realty Income Corp
-3.81% HCP HCP, Inc.

REITs are 80-90% of their yearly highs. Ouch!
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Old 03-07-2015, 11:08 AM   #324
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Nothing at all to do with market timing or glacial frequency trading (me).

Only a promise to use the acronym "RMD", not "MRD", in the future. I think that was a holdover from my working with one of my parents who'd hit the big age. They called them "MRD"s. They were furious they were required to take anything out!
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Old 03-07-2015, 01:25 PM   #325
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Because I reinvest my O dividends I don't mind that it goes down.

In an effort to do a rebalance I sold one fund intending to invest it in ETF DON (mid-cap dividend). Didn't pull the trigger last week so happy to watch it go down.
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Old 03-10-2015, 01:56 PM   #326
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Clearly, I am getting killed today with that recent VEU (large-cap foreign) I bought. Thank goodness, I sold FSGDX at the same time as buying VEU.

My saving grace is that VNQ (REITs) has not tanked this week.

If VEU is down more than 2.5% near the market close today, I will exchange out of a GNMA fund into an international index fund. There is about an hour to go until the close and VEU is down only 2% right now.

Edit to add: Did not hit my trigger. In a way, I am relieved.
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Old 03-10-2015, 02:06 PM   #327
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I started my decluttering of interest rate sensitive stocks that I bought a few years ago. First to go was SO (Southern Company). It went ex-div yesterday and I collected that and sold my entire position today. I'm up 5% overall for about 400 shares purchased.

The CNBC Talking Heads and Dennis Gartman were touting "buy Europe" last night. I have to look into that strategy and see if it makes sense to slide some funds into an ETF that covers that landscape.
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Old 03-11-2015, 02:28 PM   #328
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Just submitted two exchange orders, FSGDX -> fixed income; fixed income -> VTIAX. These exchanges were done in different tax-advantaged accounts as noted previously.

This doesn't change my asset allocation, but unloads all remaining shares of FSGDX.

And despite bad market timing this month, the performance of this 60/40 portfolio is running ahead of the performance of the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund with its 60/40 asset allocation. That's one of my benchmarks.
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Old 03-11-2015, 04:30 PM   #329
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Today, I am closing out about 1/2 of my bearish bets, and pocket a bit more than $1K. Not a lot of money, in fact a tiny fraction of the amount I "lost" in other long-term holdings. However, as my stated goal with this kind of incremental short-term bet is to get some "free" fuel for my RV, the above gain gets me close to 3,000 miles with the gas-guzzler, which is about what my next trip is going to be. But, but but...

... I still have 1/2 of the bearish REIT bet, and the bearish biotech bet. Right now, I am ahead on the REIT, and still lose money on the biotech, with the two roughly cancel each other out.

If tomorrow both sectors recover, then together they may just wipe out the $1K gain above, leaving me empty handed.

Market timing is tough, no doubt about it. Even when one's guess is approximately right, an execution timing being off by a few days can wipe out all the gain. Such is the fun of playing the game of chicken with the market.

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As stated in a post on a recent thread about our expectations of market return in 2015, I believed the market will just bounce around +- 5% this year. So, I would try to do a bit of buy-low/sell-high trying to make a bit more money for RV fuel.

In that vein, over the last few days, I have bought some bear ETFs, which are analogous to shorting stocks. The sectors I targeted are the top hot ones recently: semiconductors, biotech, and REIT. The ones I bought are 2X and 3X leveraged, so the 1.2% of portfolio I committed are amplified to perhaps 3% of portfolio.

Note that this is not a hedge of my long positions as that would require a lot more money, and I am also not bearish to make such move. This is just a lark to put a bit of money to where my mouth is. The move is based on just pure technical reasons, that is these sectors have gone up so much that I am betting people will be booking their gains and sell, and I want to front run them.

So far, I have made only a few 100's bucks. It may just turn again me, and becomes an "anti-Wheee" to cause the market to go even higher. That's OK too, as I am 70% in equities.
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Old 03-12-2015, 09:02 AM   #330
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Today, I am closing out about 1/2 of my bearish bets, and pocket a bit more than $1K.

[]

Such is the fun of playing the game of chicken with the market.
Looks like a wise move, indeed, with today's action towards the positive. I am still at a 0.5% loss overall in the REIT index VNQ, but it could've been worse.
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Old 03-12-2015, 11:24 AM   #331
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I'm out of my VPU position as of today with a ~10% gain overall. I sense a rate hike in June will be a problem for the interest rate sensitive securities and ETFs. I am looking at C (Citibank) because of all the good news yesterday.

I normally don't trade much but have an itch for a little gambling.
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Old 03-13-2015, 09:27 AM   #332
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Started to unload half of my VNQ today (the doubled-up part). So far some shares at $82.61, I've submitted a limit order to sell the rest at a slightly higher price while I go walk the dog.
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Old 03-13-2015, 09:00 PM   #333
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Well, the dog walk didn't work out too well as VNQ didn't go any higher and I didn't sell any more shares. I am happy to have caught the high for the day on a few shares though.
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Old 03-16-2015, 08:46 AM   #334
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It seems like a nice morning for another dog walk. I've submitted some limit orders to sell VNQ at different prices. VNQ is up 1% so far today, but I am being a little greedy here, so I don't expect all those orders to fill by the time I get back. Update later.
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Old 03-16-2015, 09:02 AM   #335
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It seems like a nice morning for another dog walk. I've submitted some limit orders to sell VNQ at different prices. VNQ is up 1% so far today, but I am being a little greedy here, so I don't expect all those orders to fill by the time I get back. Update later.
Truly a working dog.
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Old 03-16-2015, 10:54 AM   #336
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Closed out all of my bearish bets today. Indeed, I was a couple of trading days late, and the market moving up wiped out most of the gain I had from earlier batch. I was left with a measly gain of a couple hundred bucks.

What's notable is that my bearish bet on biotech sector was never in the green, while the other bets made money. Biotech is so darn strong, it's invincible. Oh well, I'll wait and catch it another day.
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Old 03-16-2015, 11:36 AM   #337
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Update: I read a couple of books about HFT and other algorithmic trading over the weekend. The stock market is clearly rigged. Based on what I read, I have decided to never submit an order for more than 100 shares. So today, I split up my orders accordingly and used limit orders of different prices.

So far I sold about 2% of my total portfolio value in VNQ and VTI. All in IRAs, so no short-term cap gains taxes. And all for no-commissions. Most of these orders were partially filled until the full 100 shares were sold. I like this because I think it means someone else crossed the spread to match my asking price.

I still have some orders outstanding, but the limits are above current highs for the day and I am in no mood to lower the limits. For instance, I have an ask price of $107.99 for VTI, so if you are looking at the order book, that order is mine.

I should take the cash raised and put it back in my VCSH, but I will probably wait until Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC meeting unless VCSH drops some beforehand.
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Old 03-16-2015, 12:31 PM   #338
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Not surprising, 107.98 is the high of day. Happened to me more than a few times.
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Old 03-16-2015, 12:57 PM   #339
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A trade just went through at 107.9899 at 13:55:30, so my limit was not reached. I told you the market was rigged.

Ah, there we go. And even one of my orders at a higher price got executed. I am happy.
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Old 03-16-2015, 01:23 PM   #340
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Ha there you go. There must have been some buy stops at 108.xx.
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