LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

If it is a Roth IRA or even a traditional IRA, I don't have to worry about taxes. Even in my taxable account I have a few hundred thousand of carryover losses, so I won't be paying capital gains taxes for years and years.

The main issue is that yesterday, I used a taxable account to buy shares. If I sold those exact shares today, then I could not use the money right away because of free-riding issues. However, by selling equivalent shares in an IRA, that money is available right away for another purchase.

 

[papadad111]

Sold part of my YINN position yesterday for a modest gain. Will sell remainder of YINN after the open today for a larger gain. Being a 3x leveraged ETF it's not for faint of heart or long term holding and on days that the broader market moves 4 or 5 percent, this thing pops and drops BIG !

I found this web site and it notes the various country exposure of large ETFs like VXUS...

. Less than 5 percent in china for example .. http://etfdb.com/etf/VXUS/

 

[NW-Bound]

Excellent move on the YINN. I assume that you bought it just two days ago. In contrast, I earned an F for selling my leveraged EM shares. Good thing I only played with a smallish dollar amount of a low 5-figure.

Anyway it seems strange to me that they chose YINN for a bull ETF, and YANG for the bearish counterpart. Yin as we know is negative or feminine, while Yang is positive or masculine, so I think it should be the other way around.

 

[papadad111]

Excellent move on the YINN. I assume that you bought it just two days ago. In contrast, I earned an F for selling my leveraged EM shares. Good thing I only played with a smallish dollar amount of a low 5-figure.

Anyway it seems strange to me that they chose YINN for a bull ETF, and YANG for the bearish counterpart. Yin as we know is negative or feminine, while Yang is positive or masculine, so I think it should be the other way around.

I have been in and out at various points. My average cost was 29 and got out at 30.74 yesterday and the rest at 33.80 today so it worked out.

In Chinese there is very little masculine or feminine gender other than first name, and few go by first name all.

very different from certain latin languages.

In fact, it's quite common for non native English speakers to use he and she interchangeably and incorrectly. In Chinese, his/hers he/she don't exist. They use "ta" ... Regardless of gender.

When you see the china bourse, the red days are good up days and the green days are bad down days so one must do some mental gymnastics going between the USA and china at times.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes, I recall now that the Chinese regard the color red as being lucky, though I did not know that green is bad.

 

[LOL!]

Well I'm feeling bad that I sold a day too soon and missed out on a 3% run-up for those shares. But even with this run-up things will not be back to where they were earlier in June before the Greek referendum. At least I didn't buy anything new before June 30th.

And here comes the fade in the last half-hour of trading this week.

 

[NW-Bound]

Well I'm feeling bad that I sold a day too soon and missed out on a 3% run-up for those shares...

Heck, I sold some at the absolute bottom. Why is it that every time I posted about my trades, they stinked? I'd better keep it to myself if I want to make some money.

 

[MichaelB]

Heck, I sold some at the absolute bottom. Why is it that every time I posted about my trades, they stinked? I'd better keep it to myself if I want to make some money.

We also want to make money and urge you to continue posting about your trades.

 

[NW-Bound]

OK. Next time, I will post the reverse of what I do. That way, we will be in the same boat, whether it floats or sinks.

 

[NW-Bound]

So, today I bought back a stock that I sold 2 months ago. This premier semiconductor equipment maker is a decent long-term holding, so I bought it back at a price 9% lower than what I sold it at.

Let's see if this posting will ruin it for me, and this stock turns around and continues its slide on Monday.

 

[papadad111]

NWB - PC market reports from Gartner and IDC looking quite bearish and revised annual forecast downward for 2015 .

That doesn't bode well for companies like micron, Amd, Intel, Texas Instruments, who build factories reliant on AMAT equipment.

I think we are early innings of a downward secular cycle on chips and would be a seller of that sector. The whole sector has got a lot more room to decline in my opinion.

 

[NW-Bound]

The PC market has not been doing well, hence the decline of the industry this year. But it is not the only electronic product. Earning of AMAT was projected to increase early next year, hence my buying it back.

But your post prompted me to look further, and despite the recent pullback AMAT is not yet a bargain relative to S&P, so I am looking to sell it soon to pocket some minuscule gain.

By the way, at the same time I sold some equities at the most unfortunate moment, I also bought some others, but forgot to post about it here. Guess what has done well.

 

[LOL!]

So I purchased a moment ago some shares of VEA (developed markets index). It had dropped 3% yesterday, was up 1% this morning, but has settled negative so far today. This is definitely a short-term trade, so if it goes up by a percent or so, then I intend to sell it or in another account its equivalent.

I am starting to unwind this trade by selling VEA. I have sold half in the past 5 minutes

Rationale: I made the expected return and the news on Greece is out now, so I do not expect any reason the pop higher (although it could grind higher). Furthermore, I am not underweighted in this asset class anymore.

(Hmmm, in the few moments it took to type this, VEA has already gone down a few cents.) (And then back up ….)

 

[Sunset]

I bought some leaps on BRK.B as it has come down 10% from its 2015 high.

Otherwise no other purchases/sales.... not enough movement either way.

I sold my leaps as everything went up, had invested roughly 9.5K and made 1.4K profit in 2 weeks.

I'm betting we still get a correction someday.... or.... other.........

 

[target2019]

Bought shares of EMR Emerson electric. The dividend hit 3.5% yesterday, which was our next mark. Previously I had bought 1/2 position at 3.25%. So we are fully in on this one, for the long run...

 

[papadad111]

The railroads /transports look interesting with oil prices continuing to stay down.

Maybe get into a transport or railroad ETF.

 

[aja8888]

The railroads /transports look interesting with oil prices continuing to stay down.

Maybe get into a transport or railroad ETF.

They carry coal also, so keep that in mind!

 

[Brat]

I think the volume of crude oil and coal transported by rail will decrease in coming years. That market will be offset by intermodal traffic.

 

[LOL!]

I don't see any major news on the schedule until the FOMC meeting in mid-September. There is a FOMC meeting next week, but it should be a non-event.

So it looks to me like a time to button up and go on another vacation as far as the portfolio and market timing is concerned.

Let's see:
Greeks … check.
China … check.
Iran … check.
Iraq … check.
Buffoons jockeying in Washington, DC. …. check.

Is anyone aware of some possible earth-shattering news to be expected in the next 8 weeks?

 

[aja8888]

Is anyone aware of some possible earth-shattering news to be expected in the next 8 weeks?

Houston Astros win their division? (that would be a shocker)!

 

[kgtest]

Nothing earth shattering. Lots of politics and a few with terrible hair dos who just need to shut there yappers. I see a bit of politico fund-raising but nothing in terms of earth shattering. I put a premarket Limit in for AAPL for what I had sold it for a while back. I think AAPL still has some room to run. I use APPL as my "emergency fund" heh prob not the best idea I get it, but hey it forces me to really improvise before selling an asset. not too many emergencies these days.

 

[Sunset]

I think the volume of crude oil and coal transported by rail will decrease in coming years. That market will be offset by intermodal traffic.

I had been thinking of railroads, but then as I was reading on the brutal year coal mining companies have had, it said how coal accounted for 20% of rail cargo.

And that coal was an extra profitable cargo for rails (maybe because it is weather proof, theft proof etc) so losing this 20% is probably worse than losing same % for some other cargo.

Plus with diesel so cheap, and going to be cheaper in couple of months, it means truckers can be more competitive to the trains

It made me hold off on the trains.

 

[NW-Bound]

Last week, before heading up to the high-country home, I sold off enough equities to lower my stock AA from 70% down to 60%. I still have to decide what to do with this new 10% in cash.

I am now back in town, and with Internet access, just now start to look at the effect of China's yuan devaluation.

 

[NW-Bound]

With the market dropping like it does today, of course I wish I had sold off even more.

Still, as the S&P drops -2.11% today, my individual stocks drop -1.51%, and my MFs -1.87%. If everyday is like this, I guess I have no right to complain.

 

[papadad111]

Now appears to be the best time since December 2014 to put new money into the market. SP500 is now negative for the year.Still paying a 2 percent dividend yield.

Adding to VTI. Total U.S. Market. Capture the industries that have been beaten up - market reflects weak financials / banks and commodities and oil.

VXUS continues to struggle too and may be worth adding to that as well given stimulus money now flowing. It yields about 2.8 percent and is very well diversified in equities across many countries

I'm an equities buyer here. Cash position down from 15 percent to now 8 percent. May do more today ...

Now through thanksgiving will be interesting - Could be a setup for a old fashioned pre election strong rally ..