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Old 04-09-2015, 10:32 AM   #361
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Sold the Biotech today pocketing 6%, when I saw the thing turn around and start to drop. The gain got me a few tanks of gas for the guzzler RV, not enough for the whole trip but every bit helps.

I also sold a bit of emerging market ETFs a couple of days ago, a bit too soon as they surged another 7%. Darn, market timing is hard!
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Old 04-09-2015, 10:34 AM   #362
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Im still holding my IBB puts and still have a decent profit but obviously they are cheaper than they were a couple days ago
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LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter
Old 04-10-2015, 05:56 PM   #363
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LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

utrecht, why do you say IBB looks sick? More M&A activity in the space, other data says market not likely to drop near term. Euro rates making it hard to raise rates in US very much without driving dollar even stronger. What am I missing?


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Old 04-10-2015, 06:10 PM   #364
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utrecht, why do you say IBB looks sick? More M&A activity in the space, other data says market not likely to drop near term. Euro rates making it hard to raise rates in US very much without driving dollar even stronger. What am I missing?


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I was talking about the very short term (since this is a market timing thread). IBB has been in a very nice upward trend for quite a while but recently it went parabolic. It had to pull back, which it did. It dropped about 10% but now has recovered somewhat. I really thought it would fall further. Im still holding puts with a decent profit but nothing like I had a week ago. IBB is back at the top of the channel now so any misstep in the market and I expect another 5-10% pullback in IBB.

Again, Im only talking short term. Long term, I have no clue.
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Old 04-10-2015, 08:56 PM   #365
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And I sold my biotech ETF too soon. It surged another 4.7% since I sold it yesterday. Son of a gun!

Now, I have to wait a while to short it.
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Old 04-25-2015, 10:15 AM   #366
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I sold a significant amount of VTSAX yesterday, partly to do some needed rebalancing and partly because I expect to buy a car in the next few weeks. So this was by no means a market timing move. However, seeing that the S&P 500 closed at a record high yesterday, I decided for my own amusement to post it here so that I can track it as if it were a market timing sale. If the market continues to climb to new highs before I actually need the money, I will mentally chalk it up to an extra opportunity cost that added to the expense of the car. Conversely, if the market dips enough for me to repurchase my shares at a lower price, my mental bookkeeping will credit me with a favorable trade that, in effect, lowered the price of the car.
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Old 04-28-2015, 09:15 AM   #367
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I was talking about the very short term (since this is a market timing thread). IBB has been in a very nice upward trend for quite a while but recently it went parabolic. It had to pull back, which it did. It dropped about 10% but now has recovered somewhat. I really thought it would fall further. Im still holding puts with a decent profit but nothing like I had a week ago. IBB is back at the top of the channel now so any misstep in the market and I expect another 5-10% pullback in IBB.

Again, Im only talking short term. Long term, I have no clue.
When I posted this on 4/10 IBB was trading at 358. It has now dropped over 5% to 339. I just sold my May 360 puts for a 46% profit.
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Old 04-28-2015, 09:50 AM   #368
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And I still have my biotech bearish ETF. I bought it more than a week ago. It surged 8% yesterday on bad news with a couple of smaller biotech companies, and that spooked investors. Today, it surged another 4%. I will wait a bit longer.
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:38 PM   #369
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Well, that was fast. Today we found a car that we liked in our price range, so we are now poorer in money but richer in wheels and shiny chrome hubcaps. Taking stock, I see that VTSAX closed today roughly 2/3 of a percent lower than when I sold on Friday. So my "market timing" turned a profit. The amount is paltry, but I feel very fortunate to pick the very best day to sell and have the money available when I needed it.
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Old 04-29-2015, 06:50 PM   #370
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So my "market timing" turned a profit. The amount is paltry, but I feel very fortunate to pick the very best day to sell and have the money available when I needed it.
This is how it starts--innocently enough. Now you've had a taste. Before you know it you'll be tracking 200 day moving averages, Bollinger bands, Elliot waves, and seeing all kinds of patterns in charts.
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Old 04-29-2015, 07:06 PM   #371
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This is how it starts--innocently enough. Now you've had a taste. Before you know it you'll be tracking 200 day moving averages, Bollinger bands, Elliot waves, and seeing all kinds of patterns in charts.
Yes, all of my friends are telling me to open my own hedge fund. Now that I've shown my prowess at trading, investors will be flocking to put their money in the hands of a guy with the Midas touch.
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Old 04-30-2015, 07:55 PM   #372
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Since the REIT index VNQ has dropped quite a bit (more than 4% in past couple of days) and since the FOMC said interest rates will be stable, I loaded up on VNQ today. It closed UP from my purchase price plus the TIAA-CREF Real Estate account went UP today, too.

This is a bit scary since VNQ is so volatile. This is a short-term trade, so I intend to sell if it goes up within a week or so. If it goes down, then I'm screwed.
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Old 05-01-2015, 03:47 PM   #373
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And I still have my biotech bearish ETF. I bought it more than a week ago. It surged 8% yesterday on bad news with a couple of smaller biotech companies, and that spooked investors. Today, it surged another 4%. I will wait a bit longer.
Sold this biotech short ETF earlier today. I missed its top yesterday, and only got a bitty gain. Oh well.

This market is really crazy, and I should not be doing this short-term trading while RV'ing and not getting ready access to the market.
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Old 05-08-2015, 09:50 AM   #374
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This is a bit scary since VNQ is so volatile. This is a short-term trade, so I intend to sell if it goes up within a week or so. If it goes down, then I'm screwed.
Started selling these shares of VNQ today that were bought last week. The first tranch got sold at a 2.99% gain for the week.

But it has been dicey with VNQ closing lower than my purchase price earlier this week. I am conflicted about greed and fear, so I want to hold to make more money, but I fear that VNQ will trail lower from here to the end of the day. So i didn't sell all the shares that were purchased, but may sell more later in the day.

Here is a 5-day chart with trading so far today:


We won't know what happens off the right-hand side for a few hours.
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Old 05-08-2015, 10:16 AM   #375
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The market loved the Friday jobs number as indicated by the feasting on equities.
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Old 05-12-2015, 07:55 AM   #376
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On May 8th, I wrote:
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[]
We won't know what happens off the right-hand side for a few hours.
Now we know: VNQ just kept going down in price:


I should have sold all shares when I sold some shares, but I didn't.
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Old 05-13-2015, 07:38 AM   #377
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For the record, I see the market getting a nice pop in the next 2-3 weeks. I predict SPY finally breaks above 212 and makes it to 217+
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Old 05-13-2015, 10:24 AM   #378
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From your mouth to God's ear.. my YTD returns have flatlined.
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Old 05-13-2015, 11:11 AM   #379
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With an overweight to international I am beating my benchmark by 33%. And that's despite VNQ not being too cooperative here.

I feel like shorting VNQ when it goes up after selling.

I would welcome a nice pop anytime though.
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Old 05-13-2015, 11:59 AM   #380
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With an overweight to international I am beating my benchmark by 33%. And that's despite VNQ not being too cooperative here.

I feel like shorting VNQ when it goes up after selling.

I would welcome a nice pop anytime though.

My "benchmark" (at least, the top-level stock/bond split) is the Vanguard 2025 target fund. If I were to sell anything today (I won't till 2016), the international funds would agree with what you say.
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