LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[LOL!]

I just a got a price alert that the VBR I just purchased is up more than 1%. I was going to sell at that point, but now I just want to hold on for the ride. This always turns about bad for me.

OK, submtited limit order to sell old shares equal to half of the VBR I bought today with limit a bit too high, so if it is executed I won't be disappointed.

 

[sengsational]

Limit order to sell? You won't be disappointed unless we have another flash crash.

 

[dvalley]

So you guys are thinking it's a good time to buy already? I was thinking we'll probably have plenty of dips through out 2016 so I was going to wait longer. At least as a buy and hold guy where I'm not going to be able to jump in and out every 2% increase etc. I guess I'm wondering if we're close to the bottom of the market already or more to come? Yeah the crystal ball question.

 

[FIREd]

My portfolio X-ray spreadsheet says that the rebalance band for international equities - a real money pit lately- has just been triggered. I might hold my nose and do the rebalancing if we close near session lows.

 

[LOL!]

OK, submtited limit order to sell old shares equal to half of the VBR I bought today with limit a bit too high, so if it is executed I won't be disappointed.

Update: Went for a run and came back to find the sell order actually executed. I am amazed and pleased since VBR is trading now at a lower price that I sold at.

 

[LOL!]

So you guys are thinking it's a good time to buy already? I was thinking we'll probably have plenty of dips through out 2016 so I was going to wait longer. At least as a buy and hold guy where I'm not going to be able to jump in and out every 2% increase etc. I guess I'm wondering if we're close to the bottom of the market already or more to come? Yeah the crystal ball question.

There is really no way to predict the future. My algorithms tell me when to buy and earlier today was certainly such a time. I don't have an algorithm for when to sell.

So even if things are going lower, I am happy to buy lower and sell higher along the way. Sometimes though I am unable to sell higher, so then I just stick it out and wait. It does make me grumpy though.

(And today was a 3% increase. )

 

[NW-Bound]

I have not bought nor sold anything in a week. I am still working on a DIY home project, so did not stick around to monitor the market. Did I miss the bottom, or will I get another chance?

 

[papadad111]

Two trades today

Bought 1000 KMI for 13.98. Sold for 14.47 today ..

Bought 20 March call 15 strike KMI 0.59 and sold today for 1.10

 

[LOL!]

I have not bought nor sold anything in a week. I am still working on a DIY home project, so did not stick around to monitor the market. Did I miss the bottom, or will I get another chance?

You missed this week's bottom for sure. Japan was up almost 6% overnight and Europe is doing great. Even oil went up.

 

[Fermion]

I sold the SDLP for a few kilobucks profit. First profit from an oil stock in over a year for me.

 

[NW-Bound]

You missed this week's bottom for sure. Japan was up almost 6% overnight and Europe is doing great. Even oil went up.

You snooze, you lose.

 

[LOL!]

Today was one of my portfolio's best days ever. This was partly because I had much more in equities (75%) yesterday afternoon than I have had in a long long time since my normal asset allocation is closer to 60% in equities.

I am overweight every single equity asset class.

Since the highs of the day were tested 3 times, I sold some VEU (large-cap foreign) about a minute before closing about 1 cent off the high just to reduce my exposure to equities a little bit. I have lots more selling to go.

I think Monday will be a day of consolidation, but that is so far in the future, don't rely on my prediction.

 

[papadad111]

Q: Why sell VEU ?

It's probably down 20 percent from highs and asset allocation would say to increase that given the amount it's down. ( lots of oil and commodities in VEU).

Also why VEU instead of VXUS ?

 

[papadad111]

Exited KMI and KMI options for a small gain last Friday.

As of now: No short-term positions.

 

[Fermion]

I bought a few more shares of my cancer drug Powerball ticket Endocyte. Today it is trading for $111 million market cap with $170 million cash on hand, no debt, and about to start phase 2 trials.

I really think they should partner up again but they have enough cash to take the drug through phase 3 trials without a partner. The reason I call it a Powerball is it can go from $2.70 a share to $270 a share just like Pharmacyclics did.

And with a fairly low burn and 69 million more cash than market cap, it shouldn't go to zero in the short term.

This turned out to be a very timely buy. An announcement of a large insider purchase just a couple days after this buy and the stock has gone from $2.70 to $3.60. I am taking a bit of profit and leaving some on the table.

 

[LOL!]

Q: Why sell VEU ?

It's probably down 20 percent from highs and asset allocation would say to increase that given the amount it's down. ( lots of oil and commodities in VEU).

Also why VEU instead of VXUS ?

Thanks for the question.

1. I do not own shares of VXUS. My wife owns a little bit of VTIAX in a retirement account, but not enough to mess with. VXUS had not been invented at the time VEU was purchased.

2. VXUS typically does not have the volume that VEU and VEA have. VXUS is not a no-commission ETF at TDAmeritrade. (VXUS is no commission at Vanguard and WellsTrade.)

3. I prefer to overweight small-cap foreign by buying VSS and then using VEU as the large-cap counterpart of foreign.

4. I had bought several thousand shares of VEA in the past week in a taxable account (about 5% of total portfolio value) and needed to reduce my foreign holdings without tax consequences. I was doubled-up, so to speak, in VEA/VEU for a few hours and overnight. VEA is more tax efficient for me and I had tax-loss harvested some VEU earlier in January in the taxable account, so no way I wanted to buy more VEU for 31 days or so. Also VEA does not have emerging markets and I was overweighted in EM, so a swap of VEU for VEA reduced my emerging markets exposure back to market weights.

5. The VEU was in an IRA, so selling VEU did not cause any tax consequences and the money is available to buy bond fund shares in the IRA.

6. Sometimes my trades are based on what I have in what account and for how long I have had it. I am mostly thinking things like "Need more large-cap foreign and less bonds." or "Need more small-cap US." or "Have too much small-cap US." Then I look to see what I have in my portfolio that can solve the problem without causing any costs or tax consequences such as taxes and wash sales.

Let me know if any of this doesn't make any sense because I need a double-check on my logic (if you want to call it that). Thanks!

 

[papadad111]

Interesting observations:

In taxable accounts, With the market drop, I have essentially no NET cap gains nor losses -- no taxable situation. All gains from last 1.5 years wiped out as we are back to mid 2014 levels aside dividends.. Depressing a bit. I'm in a negative Long term loss stance on VXUS offset by positive long term gains on both VTI and SPY.

I'm already at my limit on intl asset allocation and VXUS seems quite exposed to oil and commodities. But my gut had a feeling today and I have been contemplating placing a bet on a combination of the following 5 stocks, 10k $ each.

Chesepeak energy
Devon energy
Kinder Morgan
Sea drill
AMLP ETF

Even thought Petrobras looked interestingly cheap.



The little voice in my head says this is one of those times where it pays to place a contrarian and risky bet - but a year out I'll be glad I did this - and it may be the only Alpha in the portfolio with broad markets flat aside dividends according to what Bogle says.

Just a gut feel. The moon is full. Etc. Need to sleep on it and have others tell me I'm nuts or at least reduce the size of the bet.

 

[Mulligan]

I would not invest a penny in Chesapeake Energy unless this is total fun money and you completely understand their underlying capital structure and debt. There is no way they can pay off their debt. Of course that all means nothing if you correctly play a dead cat bounce.

Chesapeake Energy's (NYSE:CHK) credit rating is downgraded to CCC+ from B with a negative outlook at S&P, reflecting the ratings firm's lower base case oil and natural gas price assumptions.S&P says it lowered its 2016, 2017 and long-term price assumptions for Henry Hub gas by more than 15% and WTI crude by ~20%%, which resulted in significantly weaker financial measures for CHK, with FFO/debt below 5% and debt/EBITDA well over 10x for the next two years; at such levels, S&P assesses CHK's debt leverage as "unsustainable."CHK was downgraded to B from BB- just last month.CHK finished today's trade -15.5% at $2.96.

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[papadad111]

Thanks Mulligan. Ya, chesapeak may have peaked... may not be the right one....but along those lines, maybe a good solid wishlist to dabble into during the next few trading sessions...

we discussed CAT earlier. Nice dividend at 50 or 55/share as long as it holds up.

SO maybe the question is: If you had 25K .... where would you place your bets - tickers, quantities, entry price.

You all are smarter than me.... I'm listening !

 

[Mulligan]

Thanks Mulligan. Ya, chesapeak may have peaked... may not be the right one....but along those lines, maybe a good solid wishlist to dabble into during the next few trading sessions...

we discussed CAT earlier. Nice dividend at 50 or 55/share as long as it holds up.

SO maybe the question is: If you had 25K .... where would you place your bets - tickers, quantities, entry price.

You all are smarter than me.... I'm listening !

Papa, not Petrobras either... They have 24 billion due in next two years, have not had any free cash flow in last eight years...company is a govt feeding trough, and a huge chunk is in foreign currency. Not good considering Brazil's currency is a train wreck.
Sorry, I am not a common stock investor. For last two years, I have been almost totally dedicated to investment grade preferred stocks. It has been a great place to hide out. Thanks to today, I am actually on the plus side this year, despite having a tiny bit of useless Total Stock Index. The market is fearful and there are few places to hide. Be careful, out there Papa!



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[aja8888]

Being in the oil & gas business for over 30 years, and knowing what and who I know, I wouldn't put a dime in this business until at least 2017 after most of the over-leveraged companies are gone.

Also, by then (hopefully), U.S. crude production will be down significantly, Canada exports of crude will be very low, and the Middle East will have come to their senses.

 

[Mulligan]

Being in the oil & gas business for over 30 years, and knowing what and who I know, I wouldn't put a dime in this business until at least 2017 after most of the over-leveraged companies are gone.



Also, by then (hopefully), U.S. crude production will be down significantly, Canada exports of crude will be very low, and the Middle East will have come to their senses.

Aja, you bring up a point on over leverage that just confounds me with people on other income investing forums. It is a 100% amazing how they invest in debt/preferred issues and have no clue or understanding of the capital structure of a company. That is like saying your going cook dinner from scratch and don't even know how to turn on a stove. I wonder if they think companies are issuing 8-12% debt issues because they are very nice people and like giving free money away.


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[papadad111]

Definitely not long term trade. This stuff is for the "in and out/daily pop factor only"...

interesting market action today. From my post last night:

Chesepeak is up 7.3% for the day
Devon is up 7%
AMLP is up 3.9%
SDRL is up 12.5%
KMI is up 6%

The other ones I was looking at were
Freeport McMoran is up 9%
CAT is even up 2.1%

And the broad market is up 1.3%

This would have been a profitable 1-day trade of between 8-10 % depending on mix. Ah well....

 

[Mulligan]

Definitely not long term trade. This stuff is for the "in and out/daily pop factor only"...

interesting market action today. From my post last night:

Chesepeak is up 7.3% for the day
Devon is up 7%
AMLP is up 3.9%
SDRL is up 12.5%
KMI is up 6%

The other ones I was looking at were
Freeport McMoran is up 9%
CAT is even up 2.1%

And the broad market is up 1.3%

This would have been a profitable 1-day trade of between 8-10 % depending on mix. Ah well....

I thought of you today, Papa! Sorry, I helped talk you out of it....Of course I was thinking in terms of investments not pop trades... I don't have big enough stones to ever do that. One thing is sure, the stocks have jumped, but the underlying fundamentals haven't. I would be flat broke gambling on day to day movements of stocks!


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[papadad111]

No worry. Like stones in a babbling brook. Just have to reach down and pick up a few when the timing is right.

I would never trade like this in my portfolio. This market timing stuff is just fun /mad money. It's fun to see how much one can parlay a position.

I don't have the guts any longer to do this for my main portfolio. In my 20's. Yes. Not now.