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Old 05-03-2016, 03:57 PM   #1141
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You must be kidding right? The market is full of manipulators. I don't have triggers point until I see the trigger points. Tough requirements, I won't make it.
I might stay off your thread forever.
I'm not kidding at all. A $50,000 to $100,000 trade is not going to be manipulated for the ETFs that I trade. I think that's just superstition talking to you. Since I see you trade VWO, the volume is so high and this ETF is so liquid, I think you can be assured there is no manipulation going on.

If you go back over my posts in this thread, I think I try to state why I buy and why I sell. I certainly try to state ahead of time when I intend to sell.

It has been a pretty good month. All the things I sold are now at a lower price and the things I bought are at a higher price. See for instance: LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

And the funny thing is that VNQ went up today even though I sold some shares yesterday and every other equity fund was down. However, the VNQ is not up as much as the bond fund I bought with the money from selling VNQ.
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LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter
Old 05-03-2016, 04:00 PM   #1142
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LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

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I'm not kidding at all. A $50,000 to $100,000 trade is not going to be manipulated for the ETFs that I trade. I think that's just superstition talking to you. Since I see you trade VWO, the volume is so high and this ETF is so liquid, I think you can be assured there is no manipulation going on.

If you go back over my posts in this thread, I think I try to state why I buy and why I sell. I certainly try to state ahead of time when I intend to sell.

It has been a pretty good month. All the things I sold are now at a lower price and the things I bought are at a higher price.

And the funny thing is that VNQ went up today even though I sold some shares yesterday and every other equity fund was down. However, the VNQ is not up as much as the bond fund I bought with the money from selling VNQ.

I day trade, big difference. I trade stocks every day in 2014, there are market manipulation. Prices vary from morning to afternoon. You can see the pattern when the traders pile in and when they let go.
Also I didn't know that's the requirement to post on this thread. Since I won't be able to state up front, I won't post on this thread any more.


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Old 05-03-2016, 04:06 PM   #1143
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You made trades every day in 2014? Who is your broker? How much in commissions did you pay for all of 2014 (or any year)? Is this in a tax-advantaged account so that you do not have to worry about taxes and filling out a Schedule D?

And yes, I know one can see when traders (or computer algos) pile in and out. I use real-time level II quotes via TradeArchitect at TDAmeritrade to help with my decisions.

There is no requirement to post in real-time on this thread, but I hope you can appreciate that others cannot learn from you unless you expose your thinking when you make buys and when you make sells.
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Old 05-03-2016, 04:13 PM   #1144
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You made trades every day in 2014? Who is your broker? How much in commissions did you pay for all of 2014 (or any year)? Is this in a tax-advantaged account so that you do not have to worry about taxes and filling out a Schedule D?

There is no requirement to post in real-time on this thread, but I hope you can appreciate that others cannot learn from you unless you expose your thinking when you make buys and when you make sells.

Scottrade. Tax account. I did have a horrible tax filling year, so that's why I don't day trade so much. But 15 minutes in/out I can make $1000 to $2000, if it's failed trade I make minimum wage. I don't know if people want to learn anything from me, remember, I'm a stupid day trader. You can lose your shirt day tradin. But it's a psychology game for sure.


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Old 05-03-2016, 08:01 PM   #1145
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Nothing is stupid if one makes money, by legal means I might add.

I have read of day traders making millions. But I am just not good at it, so have to be content with doing month trades or year trades.
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Old 05-04-2016, 01:32 PM   #1146
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Since VNQ is still going up and other things are going down, I am going to sell the rest of the VNQ I bought a couple weeks ago. Gain in VNQ is about 2%, but I avoided losses of 2% in other things, so I'd like to call it a net 4% gain over my benchmark.

If VNQ tanks in the next hour, then I have jinxed the trade by announcing it hours ahead of time and I will not place the trade.

Update: Sold at 84.57 which is near the high so far today.
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Old 05-04-2016, 08:59 PM   #1147
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Still waiting for my wife's 401k to report, but I am already down 2% compared to last Wed. That's much more than my expenses YTD.

Darn! Good thing I have not been buying anything lately. Is the public in fear yet for me to buy? I guess not.
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Old 05-05-2016, 08:15 AM   #1148
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Sorry for delayed comment. Thanks for answering

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Scottrade. Tax account.
Wow, that's $7 a trade unless you get free trades and/or you have bonus money to run through. If you made a trade every day in 2014, that's like $1400 in commissions which is $1400 too much for me.

Also, taxes on short-term capital gains must be a killer.

I really do pay attention to taxes and commissions. I will rarely make any trades that create extra commissions and taxes for me -- maybe once every 5 years or so. It's like getting an extra 25% return on my trades.
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Old 05-05-2016, 08:56 AM   #1149
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I just bought back a cash-covered put on Berkshire, expiry Jun, strike price $130. BRK is at $144 now, so the option most likely will expire worthless.

However, it has dropped to 1/10 of what I sold it at, so might as well buy it back to free up the money for the next opportunity.

In the same vein, I also bought back a June covered call on an EM ETF that has dropped to 1/10 of what I sold. This is for preparation to write another call further out in time.


PS. The BRK put was sold in Dec 2015. Wow, I forgot it has been that long. The EM covered call was sold just 2 weeks ago!
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:22 AM   #1150
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How much premium (contract size 100 I presume) did you get for the Berkshire put?
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:25 AM   #1151
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It was $5.20/sh or $520/contract.

The return on the cash to secure the put works out to 9% when annualized. It would be better if I bought back the put sooner. The premium already dropped quite a bit a month or two ago, and it is not worthwhile to squeeze the last pennies out of it. I was just sidetracked with other things.
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:46 AM   #1152
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Looks like we both will be holding our Gilead awhile, eh NW? On a positive note though, Merck only sold $50m worth of HCV drug so Gilead's slightly weak quarter was not due to massive switching of insurers.

It will be back over $90 soon.
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:56 AM   #1153
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I am not worried about Gilead. My current stake is small, so I can still double up if it drops more. Most likely, I will buy another biotech for diversification as they tend to move together. Any other biotech that you like?
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Old 05-05-2016, 10:00 AM   #1154
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I am not worried about Gilead. My current stake is small, so I can still double up if it drops more. Most likely, I will buy another biotech for diversification as they tend to move together. Any other biotech that you like?
The only other biotech I am in is Endocyte (ECYT) and it is a total powerball lottery ticket. It moves about $0.50 each way from the $3.50 level for the past year or so and I have traded it, but I have a few thousand shares tucked away if they hit all 6 numbers.

I actually am expecting some big news from them later this year which should drive the price up to the $6 to $7 range (much higher if they partner). They have $3.50 a share in cash and trade for $3.38 today, so it does have some form of a bottom at least for a year or so. The latest CC has two of their drugs showing anti tumor activity but the street has not realized this yet.

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Old 05-05-2016, 10:03 AM   #1155
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OK. May be good for a speculative bet and I will look further into it.

How about a blue chip one like GILD, one that I can take long RV trips without worrying about it?
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Old 05-05-2016, 10:07 AM   #1156
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OK. May be good for a speculative bet and I will look further into it.

How about a blue chip one like GILD, one that I can take long RV trips without worrying about it?
Amgen (AMGN) would probably be my blue chip pick.
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Old 05-05-2016, 03:11 PM   #1157
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Or Celgene or Biogen. I do not follow these companies, so know of them but not about who is doing what. GILD is the only individual biotech I have now.

Perhaps I can just add to my existing IBB position if the sector drops bad. This biotech ETF has all the above names. For smaller firms, I currently hold the ETF XBI.
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Old 05-05-2016, 03:28 PM   #1158
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Or Celgene or Biogen. I do not follow these companies, so know of them but not about who is doing what. GILD is the only individual biotech I have now.

Perhaps I can just add to my existing IBB position if the sector drops bad. This biotech ETF has all the above names. For smaller firms, I currently hold the ETF XBI.
Besides Gilead, I hold Amgen. It's one of the "best in breed" companies, but the stock bounces around with the rest of them. I've thought about dumping both and putting the funds in the IBB.
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Old 05-05-2016, 04:15 PM   #1159
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Besides Gilead, I hold Amgen. It's one of the "best in breed" companies, but the stock bounces around with the rest of them. I've thought about dumping both and putting the funds in the IBB.
But if you own the top five (Gilead, Amgen, Celgene, Biogen, Regeneron) plus throw in Abbie, you have the best blue chip bios and don't have to pay the high fee of IBB.

Six stocks is not too many to buy individually, especially if you get 100 free trades at Wells Fargo each year
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Old 05-05-2016, 04:23 PM   #1160
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Yes, that's not a bad way to do it.

In the late 90s, I did that with semiconductor and network hardware stocks. You name it, I've got it. No matter what I bought, I made money. It was crazy. Then, when the bubble burst, they all went down. I ended up jettison them all and bought material stocks (fertilizer, agriculture, mining, steel, cement, industrial metal, coal producers). I recovered all my loss and then some, until the finance bubble burst.

After the Great Recession, I got tired and did not follow the market as closely, and missed the biotech run up.
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