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Old 06-23-2016, 11:46 PM   #1221
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It will be interesting tomorrow to see if ETF again trade beneath their asset values in a panic.
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:52 PM   #1222
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I have $10k to $40k I need to move into some stock index funds. Probably VG Total Stock Market. This might be the week to do so. So if I understand correctly, I can place an order for the ETF and get the immediate price as opposed to buying the funds and getting the price at the end of the day . Is that correct?

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Old 06-24-2016, 12:02 AM   #1223
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Originally Posted by Debinnov a View Post
I have $10k to $40k I need to move into some stock index funds. Probably VG Total Stock Market. This might be the week to do so. So if I understand correctly, I can place an order for the ETF and get the immediate price as opposed to buying the funds and getting the price at the end of the day . Is that correct?

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Yes, they trade just like a stock. Be SURE to put in a "limit" order so you get the price you want or lower.
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Old 06-24-2016, 02:22 PM   #1224
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Once again it looks like I will buy on a Friday big drop. I have not submitted the order yet, but I intend to exchange a six-figure amount VBTLX to VTIAX today unless you can talk me out of it.

If Monday is a nice dead-cat bounce, I will undo the trade by selling VEA in another account. If Monday drops more, then I will probably double-down and buy more VTIAX. I present these thoughts just to make sure I go through with it.
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Old 06-24-2016, 02:35 PM   #1225
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This is a minor move at this point, don’t understand the urge to jump in certainly there is no panic in the air.
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Old 06-24-2016, 02:40 PM   #1226
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I disagree that an 8% one-day drop is a minor move at this point. It is true that yesterday's uptick was spectacular, but it wasn't 8% up in one day. It is also true that the market is still higher than it was at some of the low points of the year. It is also true that today is not as low as June 14th lows if one takes into account the dividends paid this month.

I think moves like today are not 100% based on fundamentals, but some part of them are a psychological backlash by investors. I think they can be taken advantage of. That is, days like today are the whole point of this newsletter thread.

Update: exchange order submitted.
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Old 06-24-2016, 02:50 PM   #1227
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There was a belief that REMAIN would prevail and that resulted in a large move up this week and today just reversed that, I don’t agree that this is a psychological backlash. For the most part this has not hit the average person, especially in Europe, perhaps you have a better feel of immediate reversal but if you look at what happened in 1987 when people reflected on it they came back on Monday and sold and that was when it was the panic hit the market. LEAVE is a heck of a lot bigger event than Fed hiking/not hiking and reaction is smaller. But this is defintely your market timing thread, but you asked if you could be talked out of it....
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Old 06-24-2016, 02:59 PM   #1228
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I am up at my high-country home now, and AT&T finally gets an Internet wireless connection up here.

Before leaving the home, I sold off all my wife's 401k in preparation to roll-over to an IRA account. Her 401k is all in proprietary funds, so must be rolled out in cash, not in kind.

If the market stays low when the check gets deposited, there will be bargains to buy. This lessens the pain I am suffering on other accounts.

Funny thing was I made the sale on Wed, and kicked myself when the entire world market rallied strongly on Thursday and I missed out. And today, it dropped 2x the amount it gained!

Man, I was not thinking about market timing, and was expecting and hoping that the market will stay sideways while I move the money. Another instance to remind myself that market timing is tough, and entire world market was fooled by "Brexit" polls.

PS. It looks like all my covered call options will be worthless. This reduces the pain. On the other hand, some cash-secured put options are now in the money, and I will have to buy the stinkin' stocks whether I want to or not.
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Old 06-24-2016, 03:09 PM   #1229
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..., but you asked if you could be talked out of it....
Yes, I did. Thanks!

And I am prepared that Monday will go down some more.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:01 PM   #1230
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I think I may have gotten a lucky break, maybe. Not exactly timing, but I'm in the middle of a 401k rollover right now. No telling what could happen next week, though.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:08 PM   #1231
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I disagree that an 8% one-day drop is a minor move at this point. It is true that yesterday's uptick was spectacular, but it wasn't 8% up in one day. It is also true that the market is still higher than it was at some of the low points of the year. It is also true that today is not as low as June 14th lows if one takes into account the dividends paid this month.

I think moves like today are not 100% based on fundamentals, but some part of them are a psychological backlash by investors. I think they can be taken advantage of. That is, days like today are the whole point of this newsletter thread.

Update: exchange order submitted.
A contrary example:
Friday, Oct 16 1987: sp500 down -5.2%
Monday, Oct 19 1987: sp500 down -20.5%
December 4, 1987: sp500 hits down same level as Oct 19, 1987
beyond: fitful recovery

Will it happen again? I dearly hope not.
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:57 PM   #1232
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A contrary example:
Friday, Oct 16 1987: sp500 down -5.2%
Monday, Oct 19 1987: sp500 down -20.5%
December 4, 1987: sp500 hits down same level as Oct 19, 1987
beyond: fitful recovery

Will it happen again? I dearly hope not.
I see that as an example consistent with the thoughts in this thread. I don't see it as a contrary example. Can you explain what you meant please?
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Old 06-24-2016, 07:57 PM   #1233
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LOL, I just meant that on Friday Oct 16, 1987 we now know that was not the buy point. Waiting some time was the better trade. Could be similar going forward ... or not.

Sorry but I don't follow this thread too much so I might not understand your methods. Just pop in from time to time. I'm fine with market timing.

I do a lot of research before designing a methodology that has worked in the past and that I think might have a future. It might not work in the future and that is the big bet. But if it did not work in the past, that is a problem for me.
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Old 06-25-2016, 12:23 AM   #1234
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I was fretting so much about my CAT calls being callable on Thurs, that I totally forgot about selling my BRK.B calls which were at a nice price.

Only on Friday as I saw the CAT calls were now far below the call price did I notice I missed out on selling the BRK.B I have.

I tried to buy some VTI on Friday , but I priced it too low, maybe Monday will be more exciting...
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:00 PM   #1235
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I'm still buying today. Bought more VEA a moment ago.

I intend to keep buying on every drop and will sell whenever there is a new position with a 1% to 2% gain or so. That could take awhile.
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Old 06-27-2016, 12:25 PM   #1236
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Buying HDV for the IRA. Purchased w/zero commission thru FIDO.
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Old 06-27-2016, 02:30 PM   #1237
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I still am sensing no panic just a normal market, the professionals coming on to CNBC today are 95% proclaiming they are “contrarian” and advocate buying. Several did state they saw very big risks but they see big opportunities (depends on the professional but industries mentioned aas particularly attractive are Utilitilty sector, airlines, financial sector, airline sector, REIT sector, international equity sector, oil sector, healthcare sector, manufacturing sector, regional banks, international banks, big American banks....) Cramer claimed this morning there was no chance of a big decline economy is doing too well, in short there is absolutely no fear so I do not see this point yet as a buying point. I don’t know how a bunch of buys in a declining market get reversed by one 2 percent move up, but we’ll see the Central Banks could jump in any day and key a big short term reversal that is certainly true.

I will just say it is my expectation at some point worry will hit and you will see a 200 point down S&P500 day, at that point you will be near the short term bottom. The reason I feel that is the European banks are truly significantly undercapitalized and losing Britain to save the European banking system puts more strain on the German banking system and Greece and Italy will be seen as a major problem. On the other hand if that does not happen and the market just keeps going from here then valuations I see strangling the market in the years to come and LOL will be doing great by playing the short term swings here.
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Old 06-27-2016, 02:38 PM   #1238
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... Cramer claimed this morning there was no chance of a big decline economy is doing too well ...
That just made me really nervous.
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Old 06-27-2016, 02:48 PM   #1239
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Another purchase: Exchanged VBTLX (bonds) to VSIAX (US small-cap value index).

I sure hope something starts going up soon.
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Old 06-27-2016, 02:50 PM   #1240
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CNBC is reviewing your timing strategy right now basically, checking all 49 days with 3% down or more in the last 10 years and how the market does so well n the following 5 days, though they are picking individual stocks
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