LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[steelyman]

I bought FINPX in June and it looks like one of the total international or real estate investor is coming up at the end of July.

The performance in this account (inherited IRA) isn't fireworks (a little over 5% return year-to-date, mainly because a lot is/was in cash), but the slow, almost robotic, investment approach is easy.

 

[steelyman]

End of month! This time it was FSIVX (Fidelity International Index, Advantage)

In August, it will be real estate (FRESX, which I don't think is an index). 3/4 done with periodic investing, then I will just return to being a reader of this thread

 

[LOL!]

There is a Fidelity Spartan REIT Index: FRXIX along with its other share classes.

 

[LOL!]

Today meets the criteria I posted last weekend for the rebalancing moves described, so I submitted my exchange orders a moment ago.

Well, today's 2% drop in US equities saved my June 17th rebalancing move and made it a positive thing. If you recall, I moved a bit from equities to bonds back then, but the stock market went up about 2% almost immediately, so I would have been better off doing nothing. Over the next month or so, equities deteriorated back to where there was really no difference between rebalancing and not rebalancing (I took into account the intervening distributions, too).

But with today's drop, the rebalancing move is now 2% ahead of not rebalancing. Of course, things could recover tomorrow, but I must admit that I am not-so-secretly hoping for more of these 2% down days before I need to rebalance back into equities.

 

[steelyman]

There is a Fidelity Spartan REIT Index: FRXIX along with its other share classes.

Man, oh man. You learn something every day in this saloon.

I'll check it out - thanks!

 

[steelyman]

There is a Fidelity Spartan REIT Index: FRXIX along with its other share classes.

I realized why I didn't know about this: it's not offered in our 403(b). But I am currently trying to fill up an IRA...

 

[steelyman]

There is a Fidelity Spartan REIT Index: FRXIX along with its other share classes.

I invested in FRESX tonight, it should be filled tomorrow. I didn't do FRXIX because I don't want to add another row to my Google sheet; I may flip it over when done. 19/24th through investing program'

 

[nm796]

gals/guys..are there any websites which show stockpicks by accuracy?


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[LOL!]

I think the Hulbert Financial Digest is exactly what you want. Market timing newsletters are ranked all the time by Hulbert, so I suppose that is the same thing as showing stock picks by accuracy.

An update to LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter:
No changes since back in June although equities are becoming overweighted again. Things just keep going up for no particular reason.

 

[LOL!]

No new trades to note in this post, but I was prompted by today's REIT thread to analyze two previous trades:

Sell VNQ on 4/10 and Buy VTI on 4/16.

I was always worried that perhaps it would've have been better to leave well enough alone and not sell that VNQ. So with today's 3% drop in VNQ, I went back to look at those trades.

At first, I just plotted a comparison at Morningstar which didn't look too good for those trades. But then I went to the actual prices that the trades were executed at which turned out to be quite a bit different than the closing prices used by the M* charts. For instance, I sold VNQ at 71.84, but it closed at 70.90 on April 10.

So the bottom line is that the VTI position has returned 8.0% since purchase including a dividend while if I had held the VNQ shares, they would have returned about 3.8% including the dividend.

Thus, I can stop worrying about those trades until another big movement in VNQ or VTI.

As for the recent market action, things are starting to look interesting. I really want to make some buys here, but have held off. As always, I will post when I submit the order.

Good luck everyone!

 

[LOL!]

Time for a small bit of tax-loss harvesting. A moment ago I sold all the shares of VEA (developed foreign large-cap) purchased on 3/26.

I intend to purchase something with the money later today. I can either buy VWO (emerging markets large-cap) or total international (FSGDX or VXUS) or VEU (large-cap foreign) or any combination thereof. Since VWO is down 2.5% today, I am leaning towards VWO for most of the money.

If you like to trade vicariously, I have a big pot of money to spend today, so I welcome suggestions that I see in time to act.

 

[LOL!]

I have submitted limit orders to purchase some VWO and VEU a few cents below current bid/ask. Volume is enough for both that I may change to market orders if it looks like prices will not drop in the last 30 minutes of trading today.

I'll update this post when these orders get executed.

OK, the little pop in prices a moment ago caused me to panic and switch to market orders that were executed.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am traveling, and will not have the chance to watch the market tomorrow. I just set an order to buy EDC, a triple-leveraged EM ETF at $26.50. It just closed today at $28.24.

It's just a bit of play money, and not even 1% of portfolio value.

 

[steelyman]

I don't mind drops like there have been recently because I don't sell anything except for required inherited IRA distributions. I realize some people do, though.

I am nearing the end of an investment program and will stay with my boring end-of-month buys to get rid of cash regardless of what the market does on that day.

 

[steelyman]

I placed orders for equal dollar amounts of FSEVX (extended market) and FSEMX (emerging markets) to be filled tomorrow.

Down to only 4 more remaining

 

[LOL!]

My international equities are now about 1% of total portfolio value below where they need to be. However, I just don't have the guts to buy more international equities at the moment. I am looking for a "wash out" or big one day drop in order to make a trade. I feel such a day would signal a change in momentum.

That recent TLH I did was just international to international, so it really didn't change my asset allocation. But I may have to TLH those shares of VWO before too long. I guess in 30 days or so, I could just go back to VEA.

Some dividends from ETFs appeared in my accounts today. Nothing big, but I will probably devote to small-cap emerging such as EWX and DGS.

@steelyman, I like those choices of FSEVX and FSEMX. It looks like FSEVX will be down about 0.9% by the end of the day.

 

[sengsational]

I have submitted limit orders to purchase some VWO and VEU a few cents below current bid/ask. Volume is enough for both that I may change to market orders if it looks like prices will not drop in the last 30 minutes of trading today.

I'll update this post when these orders get executed.

OK, the little pop in prices a moment ago caused me to panic and switch to market orders that were executed.

I like this post (and this thread) because, for whatever reason, I don't have any local buddies that I can chat with about trading. So getting an idea about what goes through your head when you're deciding what to do is instructional. Actually, this post sounds a lot like my thinking, so if you're thinking right, so am I, hehe!

 

[dallas27]

I own both, taking a big hit lately as the dollar is getting stronger. I expect the US to continue progress, further strengthening, pushing diwn vwo and veu. For me that fine, just more DCA as it drops, maybe you feel differently though.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Spudd]

I tried to sell my international (ZEA, Canadian ETF) this morning. Bid/ask was 15.04/15.06 so I put my order at 15.06. Now it's down to 14.90/14.93 and I'm torn between panic-selling it and just deciding to hold it after all.

 

[LOL!]

I own both, taking a big hit lately as the dollar is getting stronger. I expect the US to continue progress, further strengthening, pushing diwn vwo and veu. For me that fine, just more DCA as it drops, maybe you feel differently though.

I feel about the same way. VWO has problems now with the Hong Kong / China thing. Since it is a holiday over there now, there is no visibility for a few days.

VEA will continue to be hurt by Ukraine and other things like that.

And folks who are flying out of Liberia and other ebola hotspots to try to save themselves will add some spice, too.

It's always something.

At this point though, I am not in the accumulation phase since I am not working. I'm mostly interested in just picking decent times to tax-loss harvest and to rebalance.

 

[kgtest]

I sold some small-caps to harvest a loss myself. SCHA specifically. Plan on pumping it back into the iPhone6 / aka AAPL and also UNP / Union Pacific. Also going to see how Ebola and Middle east playout in the next few days to decide if I change any future DCA myself. The dollar sure is on a tear.

BTW I have no clue what I am doing lol.

 

[LOL!]

VEA will continue to be hurt by Ukraine and other things like that.

I always like to put a positive spin on things and the most recent transactions are no exception.

One might think that the replacement shares of VEU and VWO have lost money, so it did no good to tax-loss harvest the loss in VEA. It is true that VEU & VWO have lost money, but if I had held on to the shares of VEA, they would have lost even more money. Thus, I can rationalize in my mind that I did not hurt myself so far with that TLH move.

 

[Free To Canoe]

It's always something!

 

[LOL!]

[…]
That recent TLH I did was just international to international, so it really didn't change my asset allocation. But I may have to TLH those shares of VWO before too long. I guess in 30 days or so, I could just go back to VEA.

Some dividends from ETFs appeared in my accounts today. Nothing big, but I will probably devote to small-cap emerging such as EWX and DGS.

Earlier today I sold some of the shares of VWO purchased recently in the TLH move for a small profit. I just didn't want to have to sell at a loss and things are looking pretty dicey.

VEA which I sold is really taking it on the chin. I'm happy I do not own those shares anymore.

The bond ETF dividends showed up this morning, so that finishes off the expected dividends from the 3rd quarter. I used them to buy single digit shares of VTI, DGS, and VCSH in the IRAs, but I bought too soon since VTI and DGS dropped even more afterwards.

I like the slow grind downwards, but I'd like a really bad day which might signal a change in momentum.

 

[steelyman]

Oh, well. As a local finance professor said, it's about share (not price) accumulation.