LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[Free To Canoe]

I too think it is bad to fight momentum, the fed or other intangible entities.
I am more of a go with the flow guy (unless it is off of a cliff).

 

[hsv_climber]

Ok, put me in a contrarian camp. I've been putting all new "stocks" money in small amounts into Emerg. Markets this year.
Plan to make another micro purchase today.

 

[LOL!]

Last two trades were looking to go the wrong way, but the 2/19 reduction of mid/small to bonds has worked out and the 3/14 reduction of mid/small to large-cap has also worked out. All this because mid/small has dropped in April and bonds went up as well. Timing could have been better ... could've waited until 3/29 to make the trades.

Oh, well, just back to waiting.

 

[LOL!]

With small-cap ETFs down about 3.5%, sold some short-term bond (VCSH) and submitted limit order to buy VBR a moment ago. I'm not sure if the order will get filled or not as sometimes the market will pop back at day's end with buyers, but the order is submitted with about 8 minutes to go.

If the buy order is filled, the intent is not to hold more than a few weeks.

(Order filled at 15:59:45 today.)

 

[FinanceDude]

You dirty market timer........

 

[LOL!]

The position in small-cap value purchased on 4/15 has gone up the 3.5% that it had dropped on that day (before the purchase), so I have submitted a limit order to sell the entire position a moment ago. If the sell order is filled, that will be about a 3.5% return in 2 weeks. Not bad for money that was originally in a short-term bond fund.

The limit price is slightly above the current day's high price, so it may or may not get filled, but I will edit this post at day's end.

[Added] I changed my limit price before the order was executed to be even higher, so at the end of the day, the order was not executed and expired. I will try again tomorrow.

 

[LOL!]

Re-submitted a limit order to sell those VBR shares which was executed in the last 15 minutes of the day.

 

[LOL!]

Someone in Japan said "Whee!" overnight. Get ready for some action.

 

[frayne]

Sell in May and go away !

 

[utrecht]

Sell in May and go away !

We have a ways to go before that's true. The SP500 is +4% in May not counting whatever drop we suffer today.

 

[ziggy29]

We have a ways to go before that's true. The SP500 is +4% in May not counting whatever drop we suffer today.

Of course, the old adage doesn't say whether to sell on May 1 or on May 31...

Haven't touched my own AA since I last rebalanced it down to about 59/41 a few months ago (target is 60/40) and don't rebalance until it hits 65% equities (at 63% now). I did recently rebalance my mom's, though -- it was up to 38/62 in the sunup and it should be around 30/70 (she's 78 next month).

 

[FUEGO]

Someone in Japan said "Whee!" overnight. Get ready for some action.

I was wondering when that bubble would pop. The nikkei was up something like 77% over the course of six months when I checked a few days ago. American investors holding US dollar denominated japanese investments didn't get all those gains though, since the yen also weakened vs the USD by 30% or so.

 

[karluk]

Someone in Japan said "Whee!" overnight. Get ready for some action.

May, my favorite time of year - the birds are singing in the trees, flowers are blooming, and there's a hint of panic in the stock market. Only very ordinary losses in the US so far today, though. Let's see how things go.

 

[FUEGO]

And on a lighter note, for those still accumulating assets in preparation for ER, it just got a little easier to watch the 401k investments trickle in each pay day, and to pull the trigger on IRA contributions.

 

[ziggy29]

May, my favorite time of year - the birds are singing in the trees, flowers are blooming, and there's a hint of panic in the stock market. Only very ordinary losses in the US so far today, though. Let's see how things go.

Europe looked to be down about 2-3%, which is about what I expected on Wall Street. Time will tell.

Any time there's a sell off in May, people freak out and recall the old saying.

 

[brewer12345]

Europe looked to be down about 2-3%, which is about what I expected on Wall Street. Time will tell.

Any time there's a sell off in May, people freak out and recall the old saying.

Based on the last couple of years' arrival of a spring slump in April, we are overdue for "the pause that refreshes."

 

[LOL!]

Things really fizzled out today, so no trades.

 

[1st Tee]

Things really fizzled out today, so no trades.

You haven't updated since May 23

I do some "Market Timing".
Most of my timing is to protect my nest egg and avoid the big pull backs.
Buying back later at hopefully lower prices.

I have been selling some positions, building up cash.
Not sure if we will get that correction that everyone has been talking about.
But I'm happy with my gains and holding cash for a while isn't a problem.

Have you seen or read any of dshort?
Read about the 3 bears in Barron's a few years ago and have been following
him. The web site he posts on is free and is very very good. Lots of others
also post their work.

 

[RAE]

Read about the 3 bears in Barron's a few years ago and have been following
him. The web site he posts on is free and is very very good. Lots of others
also post their work.

Could you please post a link to his website? Thanks!

 

[rbmrtn]

Some good commentary on his site

dshort - Advisor Perspectives

 

[LOL!]

You haven't updated since May 23

I do some "Market Timing".
....

I have made no trades [except less than about $200 to reinvest dividends] since the last reported trade on 4/30.

Several ETFs that I am interested in are about to go ex-dividend, so I will wait for that to happen.

 

[JamesB]

Some good commentary on his site

dshort - Advisor Perspectives

I'm also a fan of Doug Short. I have his RSS feed at the top of my yahoo page. When everyone else is saying how this bull still has legs, dshort keeps pointing out how expensive the market is compared to historical valuations.

 

[LOL!]

Bought some VWO (large-cap emerging markets index ETF) today with some cash that had accumulated in the taxable account. If it drops, I will TLH. If it goes up, I intend to sell after a gain of just 1-2 percent. That is, I am happy to get 20X the rate of a money market account in a week or month. The amount was about 0.5% of the whole portfolio, so practically inconsequential.

Sold all shares of VCSH in my Roth in preparation for buying something over the next few days.

I need more equities or intermediate-term bonds according to my IPS, so I am not sure what I will get, but I intend to buy into the gloom-and-doom.

 

[pb4uski]

What is a ISP?

 

[LOL!]

It's a special internet service provider that also tells me which ETFs to buy.