Magic Formula Tracker

[target2019]

XIRR for 294 days:

Ticker|XIRR|Gain/Loss 04/13/2017
Magic Formula Picks|1.1%|$406
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|13.0%|$4768
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|12.9%|$4710

The benchmarks gave back a bunch. The random choices are not doing nearly as well as the benchmarks at this point.

Small Cap Value (like VISVX, VSIAX, or VBR) is one thing that I recall getting a lot of attention on Vanguard boards in the past. Not sure if it is still "a thing." but I placed VSIAX into one of our Roths, in combination with Wellesley. The ratio is something like 1 part SCV to 3 parts Wellesley. Combined return per Vanguard since inception is 10.5% (9 years).

 

[sengsational]

My XIRR's won't match anything published since those involve investing 1/6th of the eventual total every 2 months over the span of 12 months of 2016 and 2017. The XIRR's were wildly high at the beginning of the experiment!

As to the asset class of small cap value, I wouldn't want everything in it, but I do think it's good to have some of it.

Back in, oh, maybe 1982 or so, I was reading about some professor and his idea that "shadow stocks" were a good investment, so I put some of my savings into a fund with that name. But back then, I was not patient enough and ended up selling low

With this experiment, I don't have high expectations for the near term. I just figure that if these really are good companies and they really are trading at a price that is on the low side, even if the equity market takes a dive, these guys might be propped up a little bit, since they're already trading low.

Of course this would presume that you believe in the valuation methodology that is used to develop the screen in the first place. Reasonable people might disagree about that, but after reading the book, I'm about 75% on-board with it.

 

[dixonge]

I think that in order to properly test his strategy you should perhaps remove the 'random' part. If the screening tool picks the 'top 50' then randomly picking a small part of the 50 will lower your results. If you re-run the screen every couple of months, then pick the top six stocks and repeat that every couple of months, skipping already-owned stocks, then that should produce better results, don't you think?

 

[sengsational]

It's been one day shy of a year since I made the first post in this thread, and I'm here to report on the positions from that day.

Closing out those positions gave a rate of return of 30.1%. This includes dividends as well as price appreciation/depreciation.

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR |
CRSPSCVT|1916.4993|06/22/2017 11:00|16.2%|Benchmark June 2017 Sale
VBR|121.68|06/22/2017 11:00|15.3%|Benchmark June 2017 Sale
BKE |16.5|06/22/2017 11:00|-30.5%|June 2017 Sale
HSII |22.45|06/22/2017 11:00|29.8%|June 2017 Sale
INSY |13.21|06/22/2017 11:00|02.1%|June 2017 Sale
KFY |34.89|06/22/2017 11:00|56.4%|June 2017 Sale
MSGN |21.65|06/22/2017 11:00|28.8%|June 2017 Sale
STRA |92.13|06/22/2017 11:00|92.6%|June 2017 Sale
||||
ALL||06/22/2017|30.1%|

The CRSPSCVT benchmark doesn't have dividends to complicate the calculations, but VBR does. I tried to account for those. The two should be very similar rates of return.

This was a lucky batch of randomly picked magic formula stocks...they beat the benchmarks!

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|1653.38|06/23/2016 14:15|Benchmark
VBR|106.68|06/23/2016 14:15|Benchmark
BKE|25.76|06/23/2016 14:15|June 2016 Pick
HSII|17.66|06/23/2016 14:15|June 2016 Pick
INSY|12.92|06/23/2016 14:15|June 2016 Pick
KFY|22.57|06/23/2016 14:15|June 2016 Pick
MSGN|16.81|06/23/2016 14:15|June 2016 Pick
STRA|48.22|06/23/2016 14:15|June 2016 Pick

Here are the June replacement picks:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|1919.86|06/22/2017 13:25|Benchmark
VBR|121.77|06/22/2017 13:25|Benchmark
AMCX|54.55|06/22/2017 13:25|June 2017 Pick
AMN|36.625|06/22/2017 13:25|June 2017 Pick
DLX|69.15|06/22/2017 13:25|June 2017 Pick
HRB|31.159|06/22/2017 13:25|June 2017 Pick
NHTC|28.55|06/22/2017 13:25|June 2017 Pick

 

[sengsational]

I think that in order to properly test his strategy you should perhaps remove the 'random' part.

That might be putting too fine of a point on the data used to build the screen. Besides, magicformulainvesting just provides a list sorted alphabetically; no way to determine which ones came ahead of any other. And finally, I was testing the methodology in the book, which says to get a bigger list, then take a random set. This methodology keeps like-minded investors spread-out a little bit too.

 

[ERD50]

It's been one day shy of a year since I made the first post in this thread, and I'm here to report on the positions from that day.

Closing out those positions gave a rate of return of 30.1%. This includes dividends as well as price appreciation/depreciation. ...

Interesting. For ref, looks like SPY total return was ~ 19% for past year.

-ERD50

 

[Ready-4-ER-at-14]

I own this book and did some picks back in 2008, 2010, 2015, and 2016. I modified his list by only buying dividend stock from his scans.

I've done well with it but then again buy and hold has worked too. I think of it as fallen angel investing.

I would have to review the book but it seems that the author or one with a similar style also had rules for certain specific times when you should not be in the stock market. Does that match up with your recollection of that book?

 

[Totoro]

Way I recall it: don't buy stocks right before earnings announcements. Avoids buying into old news (and numbers).

 

[sengsational]

While I agree with the idea about avoiding the periods when speculation about earnings is foaming, I don't remember reading that in the book. Not that it wasn't there, but if it was, it didn't "stick" in my head. But then again, I concentrated more on the portion that dealt with how to execute on the process. By taking action every other month, you're kind of getting yourself out of always trading in those announcement windows, if you consider those windows after the end of each quarter. For the purposes of this thread, I kind of lucked-out at avoiding the earnings news fluctuations since the timing started in late June. So that means June, Aug, Oct, Dec, Feb, Apr. So early April might align with quarterly announcements, but the rest, not so much.

 

[sengsational]

It's been one year since the second batch of stocks was purchased. Closing out the August 2016 picks resulted in a -16.1% rate of return, whereas the benchmarks are +11% or so. So this batch of 5 stocks did pretty bad in the past 12 months...unlucky, whereas the last batch did well at a 30% return. This flailing is probably what keeps most people from doing this.

The overall results across all picks so far is -3.2%, whereas the benchmarks are +7.2%. I've added the S&P 500 benchmark; even though it's not a "good benchmark" for the magic formula investing, it's kind of the default that people like to see.

Ticker|XIRR to Date|gain/loss thru 08/17/2017|XIRR for Aug 2016 batch
Magic Formula Picks|

-3.2%​

|

-$2412​

|

-16.1%​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

7.2%​

|

$5084​

|

11.4%​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

7.2%​

|

$5061​

|

11.4%​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

15.0%​

|

$10438​

|

14.3%​

|

Here's the detail from the closed-out positions:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

1900.40​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

11.4%​

|Benchmark August 2017 Sale
VBR|

120.15​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

11.4%​

|Benchmark August 2017 Sale
VOO|

224.41​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

14.3%​

|Benchmark August 2017 Sale
CALM |

35.76​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

-16.4%​

|August 2017 Sale
DHX |

1.97​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

-72.6%​

|August 2017 Sale
IQNT |

23.00​

|02/13/2017 00:00|

132.5%​

|August 2017 Sale
SYNT |

18.83​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

-35.9%​

|August 2017 Sale
TGNA |

12.78​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

1.6%​

|August 2017 Sale
CARS|

25.10​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

0.0%​

|August 2017 Sale TGNA spinoff
|

0.00​

|08/17/2016 13:20|

0.0%​

|August 2017 Sale
ALL|

0.00​

|08/17/2016 13:20|

-16.1%​

|August 2017 Sale

And here are the random picks, to be held 12 months, per magic formula prescription.

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

1900.4​

|08/17/2017 14:30|Benchmark
VBR|

120.15​

|08/17/2017 14:30|Benchmark
VOO|

224.41​

|08/17/2017 14:30|Benchmark
MD|

42.25​

|08/17/2017 14:30|August 2017 Pick
NATH|

58.345​

|08/17/2017 14:30|August 2017 Pick
TIME|

12.78​

|08/17/2017 14:30|August 2017 Pick
TRNC|

13.123​

|08/17/2017 14:30|August 2017 Pick
VIAB|

29.505​

|08/17/2017 14:30|August 2017 Pick

 

[sengsational]

Closing out positions acquired last October resulted in a -6.4% rate of return. Meanwhile, the indexes did very well in the period October 2016 to October 2017 at around 20%. This is the third batch to close-out after the prescribed one year duration. The rates of return on the these closed-out batch have been 30%, -16% and now -6%. So we can see this does not provide a smooth ride, by any means. At least it's still "above water", with all positions, open and closed, achieving an annualized rate of return of 6.7%. The related indexes are in the 16% range. So the specific picks made in this thread so far have not done as well as the general market over this span of time.

364 Days ending 10/05/2017|XIRR for Oct 2016 batch|XIRR 468 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

-6.4%​

|

6.7%​

|

$5307​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

19.8%​

|

16.1%​

|

$13451​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

19.9%​

|

16.1%​

|

$13458​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

20.5%​

|

18.6%​

|

$15406​

|

Here is the detail from the close-out positions:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2057.84​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

19.8%​

|Benchmark October 2017 Sale
VBR|

129.52​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

19.9%​

|Benchmark October 2017 Sale
VOO|

233.75​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

20.5%​

|Benchmark October 2017 Sale
CSGS |

41.08​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

2.2%​

|October 2017 Sale
KORS |

47.55​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

0.1%​

|October 2017 Sale
MPAA |

29.20​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

4.5%​

|October 2017 Sale
RGR |

53.96​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

-1.5%​

|October 2017 Sale
AOBC|

16.02​

|10/06/2016 13:45|

-36.6%​

|October 2017 Sale
ALL|

​

||

-6.4%​

|October 2017 Sale

And here are the random picks out of the list provided by the magic formula site:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2057.23​

|10/05/2017 15:06|Benchmark
VBR|

129.49​

|10/05/2017 15:06|Benchmark
VOO|

233.89​

|10/05/2017 15:06|Benchmark
ABC|

84.24​

|10/05/2017 15:06|October 2017 Pick
AGX|

67.4​

|10/05/2017 15:06|October 2017 Pick
GHC|

580.045​

|10/05/2017 15:06|October 2017 Pick
IPG|

21.256​

|10/05/2017 15:06|October 2017 Pick
NLS|

17.183​

|10/05/2017 15:06|October 2017 Pick

 

[sengsational]

As is the usual case, every two months I dust off the spreadsheet, close the 12 month old positions and open some replacements, then post the results for what happened with this random picking scheme.

Selling the one year old picks resulted in an horrific -24% IRR for that group. The small cap value indexes were in the 8% to 9% range for this specific December to December period. The S&P 500 remained in the 20% range. I'm glad that's where my real money is!

The entire set of Magic formula picks, closed and open positions, is still above water, barely, at 1%, but two months ago it was at 7%, so not looking good compared to the indexes over the past year and a half. Shows that if people want to play this game, they've got to have some fortitude.

And here are the pastes from the spreadsheet....

364 Days ending 12/14/2017|XIRR for Dec 2016 batch|XIRR 538 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

-24.2%​

|

1.0%​

|

$882​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

9.1%​

|

14.1%​

|

$14538​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

8.0%​

|

14.0%​

|

$14444​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

19.8%​

|

19.9%​

|

$20424​

|

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2078.29​

|12/15/2016 16:00|

9.1%​

|Benchmark December 2017 Sale
VBR|

130.69​

|12/15/2016 16:00|

8.0%​

|Benchmark December 2017 Sale
VOO|

244.34​

|12/15/2016 16:00|

19.8%​

|Benchmark December 2017 Sale
FPRX |

20.87​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-58.8%​

|December 2017 Sale
HPQ |

20.78​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

38.6%​

|December 2017 Sale
ICON |

1.39​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-85.0%​

|December 2017 Sale
PBI |

10.94​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-25.4%​

|December 2017 Sale
SCMP |

16.73​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

8.1%​

|December 2017 Sale
COMBINED|

0.00​

|12/14/2017 14:25|

-24.2%​

|December 2017 Sale

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2078.288​

|12/14/2017 14:25|Benchmark
VBR|

130.6885​

|12/14/2017 14:25|Benchmark
VOO|

244.337​

|12/14/2017 14:25|Benchmark
CNCE|

26.207​

|12/14/2017 14:25|December 2017 Pick
DISCA|

20.126​

|12/14/2017 14:25|December 2017 Pick
SP|

38.45​

|12/14/2017 14:25|December 2017 Pick
USNA|

71.95​

|12/14/2017 14:25|December 2017 Pick
UTHR|

134.97​

|12/14/2017 14:25|December 2017 Pick

 

[ERD50]

....
Selling the one year old picks resulted in an horrific -24% IRR for that group. The small cap value indexes were in the 8% to 9% range for this specific December to December period. The S&P 500 remained in the 20% range.

... still above water, barely, at 1%, but two months ago it was at 7%, so not looking good compared to the indexes over the past year and a half. Shows that if people want to play this game, they've got to have some fortitude.
...

"Fortitude" is one description I could think of, but it's not the first!

-ERD50

 

[sengsational]

"Fortitude" is one description I could think of, but it's not the first!

Thanks for sparing me the others you might have thought of

It's that time again; a couple of months have past and I've just rotated out the year-old set and rotated in another set.

The story is much the same: For the February 2017 to February 2018 batch, the Magic Formula picks lagged both the appropriately matched indexes as well as the benchmark S&P 500. With the risk of sounding a bit boho-esq, Goldblatt said it would take 3 to 5 years and it hasn't yet been two years. I was always a bit skeptical, and based on these results so far, I'm even more so.

364 Days ending 02/22/2018|XIRR for Feb 2017 batch|XIRR 608 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

2.0%​

|

3.9%​

|

$3487​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

6.2%​

|

12.7%​

|

$15614​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

5.8%​

|

12.7%​

|

$15585​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

14.7%​

|

19.0%​

|

$23465​

|

At least this batch ended in positive territory, a 2% gain:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2098.53​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

6.2%​

|Benchmark February 2018 Sale
VBR|

131.19​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

5.8%​

|Benchmark February 2018 Sale
VOO|

249.55​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

14.7%​

|Benchmark February 2018 Sale
AKRX |

30.55​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

41.2%​

|February 2018 Sale
DIN |

67.66​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

20.9%​

|February 2018 Sale
GME |

15.65​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

-34.9%​

|February 2018 Sale
MDCA |

9.24​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

3.7%​

|February 2018 Sale
SPOK |

14.08​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

-24.2%​

|February 2018 Sale
|

0.00​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

0.0%​

|February 2018 Sale
|

0.00​

|02/23/2017 13:40|

0.0%​

|February 2018 Sale
ALL|

​

||

2.0%​

|February 2018 Sale

Here's today's random picks:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2098.53​

|02/22/2018 13:29|Benchmark
VBR|

131.19​

|02/22/2018 13:29|Benchmark
VOO|

249.55​

|02/22/2018 13:29|Benchmark
BPT|

20.614​

|02/22/2018 13:29|February 2018 Picks
CPLA|

79.195​

|02/22/2018 13:29|February 2018 Picks
EGOV|

13.833​

|02/22/2018 13:29|February 2018 Picks
OMC|

77.725​

|02/22/2018 13:29|February 2018 Picks
VEC|

28.469​

|02/22/2018 13:29|February 2018 Picks

 

[OldShooter]

Not being critical, but most of us are long-term investors, so the interesting number would be the time-weighted total return CAGR since day 1 of the experiment. Short periods of time, like a year, tend to be dominated by noise. Fama even bemoans the fact that he only has a little under 100 years of data and that's not sufficient for good statistical analysis due to the noise level in the samples.

 

[sengsational]

I agree that longer is better. It's been 608 days. That's all the farther back this particular experiment goes. I do plan to go to 5 years. Probably still not really long enough! Anyway, the first table has those 608 day results, that's as much as I have.

 

[OldShooter]

I agree that longer is better. It's been 608 days. That's all the farther back this particular experiment goes. I do plan to go to 5 years. Probably still not really long enough! Anyway, the first table has those 608 day results, that's as much as I have.

Oh, I apologize. I missed that 608 day column. Sorry.

 

[sengsational]

Here's the current bi-monthly transaction result, and the picks for the next batch.

Well, At nearly 39% XIRR, this batch from last April far outstripped the small stock benchmarks, and the S&P. Still far shy of the benchmarks for the entire time span, however. But it's the best showing so far.

371 Days ending 04/19/2018|XIRR for Apr 2017 batch|XIRR 664 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

38.7%​

|

7.7%​

|

$9991​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

11.8%​

|

12.1%​

|

$16840​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

11.7%​

|

12.1%​

|

$16807​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

17.3%​

|

16.1%​

|

$22435​

|

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2121.61​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

11.8%​

|Benchmark April 2018 Sale
VBR|

132.05​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

11.7%​

|Benchmark April 2018 Sale
VOO|

246.29​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

17.3%​

|Benchmark April 2018 Sale
BBSI |

88.93​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

64.8%​

|April 2018 Sale
MCFT |

24.86​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

56.1%​

|April 2018 Sale
PDLI |

2.88​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

38.6%​

|April 2018 Sale
TVTY |

39.92​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

41.5%​

|April 2018 Sale
UIS |

11.27​

|04/13/2017 13:36|

-0.4%​

|April 2018 Sale
ALL|

​

||

38.7%​

|April 2018 Sale

And today's picks:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2121.61​

|04/19/2018 12:16|Benchmark
VBR|

132.05​

|04/19/2018 12:16|Benchmark
VOO|

246.29​

|04/19/2018 12:16|Benchmark
ESRX|

73.93​

|04/19/2018 12:50|April 2018 Picks
EVC|

5.083​

|04/19/2018 12:50|April 2018 Picks
MSB|

24.091​

|04/19/2018 12:50|April 2018 Picks
NTRI|

29.08​

|04/19/2018 12:50|April 2018 Picks
PBH|

30.592​

|04/19/2018 12:50|April 2018 Picks

 

[sengsational]

It's been 2 years since the first picks were posted.

As a reminder, what this thread seeks to test Goldblatt's "Magic Formula" process, as defined in his books "The Little Book that Beats the Market", and "The Little Book that Still Beats the Market".

Starting 2 years ago, stocks from his screen were randomly picked. These random picks continued every 2 months until there were 6 'batches'. Then, as each batch reached the age of one year, it was sold and replaced with other random picks.

So far, I have not proved nor disproved the premise of the books because he claims that it takes at least 3 years and might take 5 years to beat the market with this technique. Also what this thread seeks to test is if, rather than doing it yourself (buying the stocks), could you get the same result by just buying a fund that kind of matches the stocks that his screen picks (I've selected VBR fund and CRSPSCVT index, which have been tracking together very closely).

Below is the current bi-monthly transaction result, and the picks for the next batch.

Results this time show that the small stock benchmarks and the S&P, with around 15% XIRR, beat the picks from a year ago (they got around 10% XIRR). There have sets of picks that were quite disastrous, but this this set has a respectably positive return. The Magic Formula picks still havel a long way to go to catch-up for the entire time span; their return is only about 2/3's of the default S&P 500.

728 Days ending 06/21/2018|XIRR for Jun 2016 batch|XIRR 727 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

10.4%​

|

11.1%​

|

$16246​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

16.6%​

|

14.4%​

|

$22838​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

16.6%​

|

14.4%​

|

$22839​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

15.4%​

|

16.3%​

|

$25903​

|

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2234.46​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

16.6%​

|Benchmark June 2018 Sale
VBR|

139.12​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

16.6%​

|Benchmark June 2018 Sale
VOO|

253.54​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

15.4%​

|Benchmark June 2018 Sale
AMCX|

65.27​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

19.6%​

|June 2018 Sale
AMN|

60.55​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

65.4%​

|June 2018 Sale
DLX|

67.58​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

-0.7%​

|June 2018 Sale
HRB|

23.45​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

-22.8%​

|June 2018 Sale
NHTC|

23.67​

|06/22/2017 13:25|

-8.1%​

|June 2018 Sale
ALL|

​

||

10.4%​

|June 2018 Sale

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2234.46​

|06/21/2018 13:30|Benchmark
VBR|

139.12​

|06/21/2018 13:30|Benchmark
VOO|

253.54​

|06/21/2018 13:30|Benchmark
ACOR|

30.00​

|06/21/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
IDCC|

83.95​

|06/21/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
KLAC|

110.27​

|06/21/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
TUP|

40.89​

|06/21/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
WDC|

81.83​

|06/21/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks

 

[Totoro]

Would be interesting to see what happens in a down market.

 

[ncbill]

Paul Merriman advocates a small/large cap "all value" portfolio, but note the higher risk required for the higher return:

https://paulmerriman.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2-4-Fund-Combo-Tables-2017-Returns-Update.pdf

 

[sengsational]

The August batch beat the market this time, coming in at 37.1% IRR. All 5 were winners. This scheme would need a lot more batches like this to catch up!

364 Days ending 08/16/2018|XIRR for Aug 2016 batch|XIRR 783 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

37.1%​

|

10.2%​

|

$16652​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

19.1%​

|

13.8%​

|

$24289​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

19.1%​

|

13.9%​

|

$24315​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

18.7%​

|

17.1%​

|

$30207​

|

There was an early sale due to a buyout (TIME). The cash from that went into the next batch of buying. This batch got all the cash flows associated with it, but the batches can swap funds in cases like this.

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2261.76​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

19.1%​

|Benchmark August 2018 Sale
VBR|

140.33​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

19.1%​

|Benchmark August 2018 Sale
VOO|

261.47​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

17.1%​

|Benchmark August 2018 Sale
MD|

46.57​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

10.0%​

|August 2018 Sale
NATH|

89.66​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

65.7%​

|August 2018 Sale
TIME|

18.50​

|02/02/2018 00:00|

126.4%​

|Buyout
TRNC|

17.19​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

30.7%​

|August 2018 Sale
VIAB|

30.58​

|08/17/2017 14:30|

6.2%​

|August 2018 Sale
ALL|

​

||

37.1%​

|August 2018 Sale

Random picks this time:

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2261.76​

|08/16/2018 13:00|Benchmark
VBR|

140.33​

|08/16/2018 13:00|Benchmark
VOO|

261.47​

|08/16/2018 13:00|Benchmark
AEIS|

59.40​

|08/16/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
CASA|

12.11​

|08/16/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
DXC|

87.15​

|08/16/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
MIK|

20.24​

|08/16/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks
SGH|

29.57​

|08/16/2018 13:30|June 2018 Picks

 

[sengsational]

The October batch has come in negative; down over 6%. This rather unlucky October batch also was down about 6% last year.

370 Days ending 10/10/2018|XIRR for Oct 2016 batch|XIRR 838 days (all)|gain/loss (all)
Magic Formula Picks|

-6.8%​

|

7.1%​

|

$12277​

|
US Small Cap Value Index (CRSPSCVT)|

5.8%​

|

12.7%​

|

$24289​

|
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VBR)|

5.9%​

|

13.0%​

|

$24990​

|
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)|

13.2%​

|

15.9%​

|

$30776​

|

The small cap value also has fallen away significantly from the S&P 500 in the last couple of months.

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |XIRR|
CRSPSCVT|

2178.80​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

5.8%​

|Benchmark October 2018 Sale
VBR|

134.44​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

5.9%​

|Benchmark October 2018 Sale
VOO|

260.50​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

13.2%​

|Benchmark October 2018 Sale
ABC|

92.61​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

11.5%​

|October 2018 Sale
AGX|

42.69​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

-34.8%​

|October 2018 Sale
GHC|

572.98​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

-0.4%​

|October 2018 Sale
IPG|

22.64​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

10.2%​

|October 2018 Sale
NLS|

13.32​

|10/05/2017 15:06|

-22.3%​

|October 2018 Sale
ALL|

​

||

-6.8%​

|October 2018 Sale

Random picks this time included one OTC issue (CJREF), which I've never seen come up before.

Ticker|Executed price |Execution date |
CRSPSCVT|

2178.8​

|10/10/2018 11:46|Benchmark
VBR|

134.44​

|10/10/2018 11:46|Benchmark
VOO|

260.5​

|10/10/2018 11:46|Benchmark
CJREF|

3.32​

|10/10/2018 11:46|October 2018 Picks
FTSI|

12.37​

|10/10/2018 11:46|October 2018 Picks
NKTR|

50.37​

|10/10/2018 11:46|October 2018 Picks
SRNE|

3.71​

|10/10/2018 11:46|October 2018 Picks
STX|

44.02​

|10/10/2018 11:46|October 2018 Picks

 

[ERD50]

Considering reversion to the mean, I'm amazed that this "Magic Formula" can be this far from the indexes at 2+ years. It is rather magical, just not in the direction you want!

-ERD50

 

[Totoro]

Well, we're not done yet.

If it consistently underperforms, we also have a winning strategy btw.