My stock pick Novavax NVAX

[4nursebee]

They are expected to announce phase 3 trial results for RSV vaccine in elderly adults this quarter, They bought/leased a larger facility and said they should announce outside US partnership data after trial results. They have a Phase 3 trial underway for RSV infants via maternal immunization.

I am a long term holder and expect (hope) for an interesting next couple of months.

 

[Sunset]

You do understand that someone who hardly posts, then turns up with a stock tip? could look like a pump & dump type post.

So basically they are in various clinical trials with RSV vaccine.

This is something that researchers have been trying to figure out for decades and the goal is to not prevent RSV, but to prevent the complications from getting it.

All humans have been exposed to RSV during their life (like the common cold), but it does affect the very young and old more as the complications are the killer.

Their leases suggest they are going to move from one location to another in the next 3-4 years, probably in phases to not disrupt work.
"In May 2016, the Company signed a new lease for a facility of approximately 150,000 square feet located in Gaithersburg, Maryland with a term expiring in 2030, unless terminated early by the Company in 2026. The lease contains provisions for future rent increases and periods in which rent payments are reduced (abated). Also, the lease obligates the Company to pay building operating costs. Under the terms of the lease, the landlord shall provide the Company with a tenant improvement allowance of $9.6 million. In addition, the Company extended its Rockville, Maryland lease with a term expiring in 2020, unless terminated early by the Company in 2019. "

 

[4nursebee]

Everyone needs to be aware of pump and dumps! I try and pump as much as I can, would do more but thought to keep this subtle. I also do not know rules about links so did not post any. I did disclose.

Basically, yes, RSV trials. Vaccines however prevent disease, not prevent complications. Other trials include pandemic flu, seasonal flu, they have an Ebola and I think Mers candidate.

Lease is not to move. It is to large scale manufacture, build out will be in agreement with the partner.

Fidelity owns almost 15%. VG owns 6.85%.

 

[target2019]

Thank you, 4nursebee. Biotech is also the subject of Fermiion thread. Maybe threads can be combined.

NVAX trades between $1 and $10 since 1998. Almost $2B market cap. 62% debt to cap.

 

[aja8888]

Everyone needs to be aware of pump and dumps! I try and pump as much as I can, would do more but thought to keep this subtle. I also do not know rules about links so did not post any. I did disclose.

Basically, yes, RSV trials. Vaccines however prevent disease, not prevent complications. Other trials include pandemic flu, seasonal flu, they have an Ebola and I think Mers candidate.

Lease is not to move. It is to large scale manufacture, build out will be in agreement with the partner.

Fidelity owns almost 15%. VG owns 6.85%.

Emphasis is mine above. Here are the community rules and welcome back to the forum:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rules

 

[Fermion]

You are welcome to my thread, which is going to be a bit more general and not focus on one specific stock pick. I did look at NVAX just now and it would not be for me. There are too many super cheap biotech stocks right now which are churning out ridiculous profits and trading at bargain prices that I would not want to bet much of anything on a company with no profits now or in the near future. I am trying to edge out of Endocyte which also is generating no profits, although the amount I have invested there is small and as mentioned they have more cash on hand than the current market cap.

Picking a stock that is likely to be bought out is another strategy that can work out. Everyone is talking about Gilead buying MDVN but I have not researched Medivation. They are not really raking in the cash but they are profitable. I hope Gilead would not make a rash decision here and pay too much.

 

[Sunset]

..... Vaccines however prevent disease, not prevent complications. ......

Yes, but RSV is not a big problem, everyone has had it many times in a normal lifetime, its what develops from having it (the complications) that is the issue. Especially if you are already weak in some respiratory/circulation way.

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/001564.htm
"Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a very common virus that leads to mild, cold-like symptoms in adults and older healthy children. It can be more serious in young babies, especially those in certain high-risk groups."

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection-What Happens
"Adults older than 65 have an increased risk of complications following infection with RSV. Pneumonia is a particular risk, especially if other health problems exist, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or heart failure."

They do get some funding from the Gates Foundation, with the obligation that if successful they sell the drugs cheaply for the next 15-20 years in certain poor countries. Which is a nice humanitarian thing.

 

[4nursebee]

I disagree with Sunsets appreciation of RSV problems. The following might help:

https://www.discoverrsv.com/

I can't wrap my head around much of what biotech is or does and hence can't sleep well at night holding those companies shares. Unlike many of the highly specialized pursuits in pharma for rare/orphan disease solutions, an approved vaccine for RSV would likely be given directly or indirectly to every newborn, every elderly person, perhaps others with respiratory problems, and perhaps infants after maternal immunity no longer works. That is a very large market, perhaps the largest vaccine product ever (I recall the CEO saying this).

 

[Sunset]

CEO's tend to be over-sellers.
I don't see RSV vaccine being larger than the flu vaccine, which while potentially huge, is always utilized at perhaps 40% of folks. Gosh darn, even I and DW basically neglected to get it the past 2 years.
So why would RSV be bigger when nobody has even heard of it and you can't tell the difference from a cold ?

Hopefully you sold some when it hit $13.30 last August or at least bought it long before then in the $2 range. (which was a good buy).

Seriously, if you can't sleep at night, then make sure you only own enough that losing it all is a "darn that" and not a "Oh My What Will I Do" moment.

edit: I don't own any, and am not shorting anything, and I could be totally wrong, it's just an opinion.

 

[COcheesehead]

And here's what the rest of the world thinks of this stock.

 

[4nursebee]

Co Chz. how is that data compiled and analyzed?

I try and follow what the "big boys" do. Here is the data I have followed for percentage of the company shares owned by big money.

August 2015 67.87
Feb 16 73.56
3/16 75.73
4/19/16 77.11
5/14/16 79.49
5/17/16 83.08
now 83.23 above per nasdaq website.

My time involved (my observation) in the markets suggests that it can be too late to invest when the masses are interested in a stock/company.

 

[COcheesehead]

Co Chz. how is that data compiled and analyzed?

I try and follow what the "big boys" do. Here is the data I have followed for percentage of the company shares owned by big money.

August 2015 67.87
Feb 16 73.56
3/16 75.73
4/19/16 77.11
5/14/16 79.49
5/17/16 83.08
now 83.23 above per nasdaq website.

My time involved (my observation) in the markets suggests that it can be too late to invest when the masses are interested in a stock/company.

How is your "big boy" data compiled and analyzed? Mine comes from Fidelity.

 

[COcheesehead]

 

[Fermion]

Welcome to the world of biotech investing. Where everyone says the drugs are horribly overpriced yet we all seem to be losing money as investors.

 

[COcheesehead]

Welcome to the world of biotech investing. Where everyone says the drugs are horribly overpriced yet we all seem to be losing money as investors.

I didn't buy any based on the internet tip here nonono, but was curious to see what happened after they announced earnings.

 

[4nursebee]

Fidelity held steady with their 40.5M shares for the period ending June 30th. Vanguard bought >1.3M shares bringing total to 19.9M shares. A few more of the largest shareholders have yet to report holdings. Seems to be a strange conflict of interest for FIDO to own 15% of the company and then say people are bearish...or at least tell folks in Denver such.

% of shares held by big money currently at an all time high of 83.92%. Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com

I think there are shares set aside or something for a convertible bond offering.

I took the market reaction as a suggestion to sell some unprofitable calls and use the money to buy more stock.

23.53% shares in float are shorted.

 

[COcheesehead]

Fidelity held steady with their 40.5M shares for the period ending June 30th. Vanguard bought >1.3M shares bringing total to 19.9M shares. A few more of the largest shareholders have yet to report holdings. Seems to be a strange conflict of interest for FIDO to own 15% of the company and then say people are bearish...or at least tell folks in Denver such.

% of shares held by big money currently at an all time high of 83.92%. Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com

I think there are shares set aside or something for a convertible bond offering.

I took the market reaction as a suggestion to sell some unprofitable calls and use the money to buy more stock.

23.53% shares in float are shorted.

Fidelity isn't saying they are bearish. Fidelity reports a summary of ALL analysts and the total score is bearish. You may want to study the screen shot a little closer.
Have you checked to see if this stock is part of an index or ETF? That could be the reason why people hold/buy it. They have to in order to mimic the index. Lots of crap is bought because it is part of something else.

 

[4nursebee]

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) Analyst Research - NASDAQ.com

Consensus target is 14 with buy or strong buy rating.

So when I ask where was fidelity getting that data from, I meant where are they getting that data from? It directly contrasts their own actions! It also directly contrasts publicly available data such as the citigroup buy rating with target of 18.

The attached image is from yahoo.

I dont think FIDO or other mutual fund data shows ETF ownership of direct stock. For example, a powershares ETF might have 5% of its assets in NVAX, but if Fido buys that ETF, they dont then report it as added NVAX holdings. Fido OTC portfolio buys the company direct.

 

[COcheesehead]

Here is the complete list of analyst opinions that Fidelity reports as a summary.

You keep missing the point here. What Fidelity buys for their funds is completely separate from their summary reports that they provide to customers of what the industry thinks of a particular stock. Since you first posted here the consensus has actually gotten worse, down to very bearish. You happened to cherry pick one of two analysts who have a buy on the stock. Three have sells, two have underperform and three have neutral.
You have a reason you posted here. I just want to show others that your recommendation should be taken with a grain of salt and I have industry data to back it up.
I hope the analysts are wrong and you make a zillion dollars.

 

[4nursebee]

I have not recommended this stock here. I clearly stated the title as being my stock pick.

The info you provide from Fidelity is different than that available with many other sources.

If Fidelity has been buying shares of a company while publishing bearish opinions/summary equity scores, to what should weight of opinion be given? For me, it is in following the footsteps of the giants.

 

[COcheesehead]

I have not recommended this stock here. I clearly stated the title as being my stock pick.

The info you provide from Fidelity is different than that available with many other sources.

If Fidelity has been buying shares of a company while publishing bearish opinions/summary equity scores, to what should weight of opinion be given? For me, it is in following the footsteps of the giants.

You do realize the bearish summary is current as of today and since their poor earnings announcement and the records of Fidelity's purchases are at least 6 weeks or more old, don't you?
I

 

[4nursebee]

I realize they will unblind and release p3 data in the next 6 weeks.

I realize they are having partnership discussions.

I realize they will have other trial data by yr end.

I realize they have other vaccine candidates.

I realize earnings are not important. Execution is important.

 

[4nursebee]

Of note, one of the things I follow for stocks is how much of it is owned, last quarter had about a 3-4% drop, Ugh!

Skip to 6 minutes for start of RSV related material if you want. This is from the CDC ACIP working group on RSV.

 

[Sunset]

Well hopefully they get something going before they run out of juice..
Their sales have dropped like a rock.. which is weird, why would existing sales fall so far so fast.

Novavax: NVAX Stock Gets Gutted -- Can It Still Double? | InvestorPlace

"
NVAX Earnings Rundown

Novavax reported a loss of 29 cents per share on revenues of $2.5 million. The Street was expecting a per-share loss of 23 cents on $7.62 million in sales. Ouch.
But compared to the same quarter a year ago, these results hurt even more.

In Q2 2015, NVAX posted an EPS loss of 8 cents on $14 million.

That’s an 82% decline in sales year-over-year!"

 

[4nursebee]

Any comments on sales, dropping or not, are really meaningless for this company as they really have nothing on sale yet. IMO, such comments suggest a (continued) lack of understanding.



Those on FB can join the discussion group. Someone recently posted copy of Landeburg Thalman's update after earnings. $14.15 price target, buy on strength after positive P3.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/novavaxidg/


Also brought forth on the FB group was info on a new diagnostic test for RSV detection. It takes 13 minutes.
http://news.alere.com/~/media/Files...ss-release/Alere_i_RSV_510k_8192016_FINAL.pdf