Poll: Is this a Cyclical or Secular Bear Market in Stocks?

[NYEXPAT]

I realize that many forum members are passive investors and are not planning to change their asset allocation regardless of the markets. This poll is not interested in your AA/WR/ plans on when to take SS/etc.

 

[Spock]

I'm beginning to think "none of the above".
Bear markets and corrections have been replaced with flash crashes reversed by programmed/algo trades (and maybe some whispers by the PPT... funny how a bunch of pension funds all happened to re-balance on the 1K up day...).

 

[kgtest]

According to the CFO $ 14bln medium corp bank I work at, cyclical.

 

[tmm99]

WHAT??

 

[dixonge]

5 - none of the above

 

[Walt34]

I picked #1, mostly because I don't see anything different than that we have a uh, "unique individual" in a highly visible public office that and leads to uncertainty, and the market does not like uncertainty. It makes people skittish and they then seek safety. Yet I see nothing that will have a great effect on the number of pickup trucks that Ford or GM sells, or the number of boxes of Wheaties that General Mills sells, or the number of tractors that John Deere sells, or any number of other widgets that anyone else makes to be sold.

Yawn. The market goes up, the market goes down in random fashion. Nothing new that I see.

 

[braumeister]

Yawn. The market goes up, the market goes down in random fashion. Nothing new that I see.

Please unsubscribe me from your investing newsletter and return the unused portion of my subscription fee.

 

[Choices]

We knew a downturn was gonna happen but If you are counting on guaranteed growth, it bites either way. Ask the folks screaming in the streets.

 

[foxfirev5]

I voted that I don't understand the difference, If I did otherwise it would indicate I know something that nobody else knows.

 

[NYEXPAT]

I voted that I don't understand the difference, If I did otherwise it would indicate I know something that nobody else knows.

It is an anonymous poll asking your opinion. If you had no opinion, you should choose the last option. If you truly do not know the difference I would recommend people vote choice 3 and not comment!

 

[Nemo2]

5 - none of the above

Damn...I had "All of the above, except 'E'".

 

[Lsbcal]

Even though I've heard those terms several times I never got the definitions memorized so I looked them up:

A secular trend usually refers to a longer-term trend, whereas a cyclical trend reflects the short-term market momentum. So you can have a cyclical bull market within a larger secular bear market and vice versa. In a secular bull market, prices generally move higher, with occasional, shallow corrections.

I voted cyclical bear in a secular bull. But really we don't know the future so how can I say "secular bull". The market decides this second to second. I hope for a continuous stable up market but that is just my wishes. All those dollars from you all are what really determines the direction and future events that are unknowns at the present.

 

[NW-Bound]

How do I vote if I think this is a cyclical bear market in an overall flat, not bull, market?

 

[NYEXPAT]

How do I vote if I think this is a cyclical bear market in an overall flat, not bull, market?

Markets are either secular bull or secular bear. Secular Bears run for 10-25 years. A good example is the period of 1966-1982. If prices are relatively the same at the beginning of the 10-25 year cycle (inflation adjusted) as they are at the end, then it would be a secular Bear. Within that time frame you can still have rallies and corrections but at the end of the cycle you are flat. In your case I would vote "Cyclical Bear" as we are in a secular Bull until proven otherwise.

 

[Choices]

Ok, maybe I am “ secular bear”. Or maybe I just need more sleep.
But I still get the free food, right?

 

[Lsbcal]

Markets are either secular bull or secular bear. Secular Bears run for 10-25 years. A good example is the period of 1966-1982. If prices are relatively the same at the beginning of the 10-25 year cycle (inflation adjusted) as they are at the end, then it would be a secular Bear. Within that time frame you can still have rallies and corrections but at the end of the cycle you are flat. In your case I would vote "Cyclical Bear" as we are in a secular Bull until proven otherwise.

How would one know if they are in a flat market? The flatness seems to be only visible in the rear view mirror. During that time of 1966-1982 frame there were 3 recessions and loads of inflation. All those bumps would have not have felt flat.

BTW, here is a pic of a secular bear for those who don't recognize one:

 

[NW-Bound]

Alrighty.

I will keep on with my plan to sell opportunistic out-of-the-money covered calls to enhance my stock yield in this new [-]flat[/-] secular bear market.

 

[NYEXPAT]

How would one know if they are in a flat market? The flatness seems to be only visible in the rear view mirror. During that time of 1966-1982 frame there were 3 recessions and loads of inflation. All those bumps would have not have felt flat.

BTW, here is a pic of a secular bear for those who don't recognize one:

I am not asking for predictions of the future, just the "gut feel" of the forum as to whether this is cyclical or secular? This bear could drop us quite substantially and then with Bogle's (generally accepted low rate of return on this forum) could bring us back to the Sept highs in 10-15 years and looking back we would say "ohh,look at that, it was a Secular Bear! or maybe we will see stagflation like in the 66-82 secular Bear (Greenspan's current thesis) or maybe the market bottoms in the near future and the Secular Bull continues to run on. Maybe the Schiller Cape ratio never goes back to 5 or 10 or even 15?

 

[Red Badger]

How would one know if they are in a flat market? The flatness seems to be only visible in the rear view mirror. During that time of 1966-1982 frame there were 3 recessions and loads of inflation. All those bumps would have not have felt flat.

BTW, here is a pic of a secular bear for those who don't recognize one:

That's a cyclical bear if I've ever seen one!!!

 

[Nemo2]

That's a cyclical bear if I've ever seen one!!!

And he's no sloth....oh, wait....

 

[34rlsa]

Its circular

Round and round it goes

where it stops...