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Old 09-07-2016, 08:28 PM   #1221
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Thanks. I recently purchased 200 shares a bit above par and need about a 50% pro-rated div to break even.


It isnt looking good, Youbet. They started trading the new issue today already...that was super quick! So this means the company has the cash now. Which means they could be giving the 30 day call notice any day now.


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Old 09-07-2016, 10:28 PM   #1222
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RM, Do you think Central Banks are worried or even concerned about a massive unrealized dollars in the trillions losses if rates on their books head back to zero or above?


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Well I think this is the black hole they refer to of ZIRP, the escape velocity is just too painful. I think what will happen eventually is the Central Banks will buy them at par and the debt will then be cancelled monetizing the debt. Probably years or a bad recession away from this occurring.

Plan for now is slow gradual (1/4- 1/2% per year increase in rates) for years to come with inflation running 1-1 1/2 percent hotter than rates. Odds on this working are slim as the FED can’t even get another 1/4 pt in this year and deflationary pressures are immense.
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:38 PM   #1223
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Well I think this is the black hole they refer to of ZIRP, the escape velocity is just too painful. I think what will happen eventually is the Central Banks will buy them at par and the debt will then be cancelled monetizing the debt. Probably years or a bad recession away from this occurring.


I think this is important to understand at some point, but it escapes me how to. And I just cant conceptualize "real world family finances" from governmental and Central Banking finances... What is the impact of monetizing the debt? As this isn't possible with my finances, unfortunately... or at that magnitude.... The amount of money and losses is just staggering.
So you are still projecting lower long term rates ( in historical sense) for many years to come still, correct?


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Old 09-07-2016, 10:38 PM   #1224
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It isnt looking good, Youbet. They started trading the new issue today already...that was super quick! So this means the company has the cash now. Which means they could be giving the 30 day call notice any day now.


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Well, not too painful. With zero div, I'm out $60. Any pro-rated div reduces that.
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Old 09-07-2016, 10:44 PM   #1225
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Well, not too painful. With zero div, I'm out $60. Any pro-rated div reduces that.


That is good... I have ducked out of call losses until PJS, and I am still smarting mentally I got a shake down. Not bad as calls are not one time painful events...But if continued you defeat the whole purpose of trying to gain income if one keeps absorbing call losses. So I sold out my CVB and OSBCP. Basically I got everything at under a divi past call, or less. Now, I did reach a few cents beyond that today with IPWLK purchase, but with this being a utility preferred I am chancing it.


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Old 09-07-2016, 11:16 PM   #1226
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Well, not too painful. With zero div, I'm out $60. Any pro-rated div reduces that.

You will not lose much. MNR-A accrued interest is 0.52 cents/day, per share. For 200 shares, you will be getting 0.0052 * 200 = $1.04/day.

The worst case is they announce a call tomorrow; you then will receive about 23 days accrued interest, ( about $24 ), plus par on day of redemption.

So your max loss is $36. And each day where no call comes, you lower your max loss amount by a dollar.

In 5 weeks from now, you break even. But, from Mulligan's posts - I agree with him, you will likely not have those 5 weeks, unfortunately. Let's hope I turn out to be wrong.
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Old 09-07-2016, 11:17 PM   #1227
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I think this is important to understand at some point, but it escapes me how to. And I just cant conceptualize "real world family finances" from governmental and Central Banking finances... What is the impact of monetizing the debt? As this isn't possible with my finances, unfortunately... or at that magnitude.... The amount of money and losses is just staggering.
So you are still projecting lower long term rates ( in historical sense) for many years to come still, correct?


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This is nothing that is around the corner, at this point ZIRP is still the order of the day and will continue in my mind for 6-12 more months at a minimum and likely out to 2020. Japan has managed to maintain it since 1995 and the US can maintain this for equally as long unless a major shock hits, so that is my assumptions for the near term (1-3 years) I watch to see if anything major can change this.

Many people do not realize that someone who invested 100,000 in 1920 would have gotten 30 years at 5.32 percent, with a 4 percent withdrawal adjusted for inflation it would be 1947 before you would ever spend as much as $4,000 after 1921. And never for the life of the 30 year bond would the simple interest not have supported an inflation adjusted withdrawal of 4 percent. Deflation is a very powerful force that is being battled. I do not see any imminent claim of victory to be made.
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Old 09-08-2016, 09:11 AM   #1228
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Took my OSBCP sellings and used that to purchase 700 shares of the Monmouth Realty new preferred in grey market pre IPO sale. Temporary ticker is MONMP. Will be MNR-C eventually... 6.125% par yield. Yep, they are getting lower.
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Old 09-08-2016, 09:55 AM   #1229
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Took my OSBCP sellings and used that to purchase 700 shares of the Monmouth Realty new preferred in grey market pre IPO sale. Temporary ticker is MONMP. Will be MNR-C eventually... 6.125% par yield. Yep, they are getting lower.

Well, at least you do not have a call risk with this issue....



Do you know the rating?
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Old 09-08-2016, 10:10 AM   #1230
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Well, at least you do not have a call risk with this issue....



Do you know the rating?


Monmouth is a company I have read about a lot for 18 months...If you think FedEx isnt going anywhere neither is MNR.. They have been joined since 1992. Now Fed Ex has other partners but Monmouth has over 50% of their warehouse reits with them...However they sign 15 year leases. This is a long term partnership. Plus MNR is a traditional company. It aligns the lease with the note. So after 15 years its paid off. They also have not (at least in the past) use leverage...Just finance like a traditional family does. They they do oddly maintain a portion of their money in a "reit income investment portfolio" which some of that money is in UMH which BoD have a cross relationship too. Company has been around since 1968 and the founder is still the CEO.
Additionally in past conference calls, CEO mentioned they are very close to receiving investment grade status and felt that would happen in 2017. Their 4% ish 15 year loans they secured the past year indicates they are all but their also.
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Old 09-08-2016, 10:44 AM   #1231
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A person will not get rich and famous buying this one, but I like it.


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MNR-C
It is a cumulative preferred that has a call date of Sept 15,2021 and dividends paid do not qualify for the qualified dividend rate. the funds are being delivered to Monmouth on September 13th so I would expect the A preferred will be called as of Sept 15th and no dividends will therefore accrue on the prior issues.

Copy of the prospectus is here:
http://www.snl.com/Cache/35790568.pd...568&O=3&OSID=9
Monmouth is on a roll right now with the stock up 42% YTD, it started the year with a 6.4% common dividend now down to 4.3%. Fed EX exposure is the main risk, loss of that business would sink the company. My expectations are for a company of this quality the price will settle into a range of 26.5 - 27.50 pretty quickly a yield of 5.5 - 5.75 in the present interest rate environment, but that is just an uninformed speculative view on my part, and I am not presently interested in this preferred myself right now

Current quote
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...nLKJeZjAGu7IxI
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Old 09-08-2016, 10:49 AM   #1232
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MNR-C
It is a cumulative preferred that has a call date of Sept 15,2021 and dividends paid do not qualify for the qualified dividend rate. the funds are being delivered to Monmouth on September 13th so I would expect the A & B preferreds will be called as of Sept 15th and no dividends will therefore accrue on the prior issues.

Copy of the prospectus is here:
http://www.snl.com/Cache/35790568.pd...568&O=3&OSID=9

MNR-B is uncallable until its First Call date of June 2017.
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Old 09-08-2016, 10:56 AM   #1233
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MNR-B is uncallable until its First Call date of June 2017.
Thanks for that!
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Old 09-08-2016, 11:06 AM   #1234
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For the opportunistic ones among us, MNR-B could represent a short term holding yielding more than a Money Market fund. With little risk.

there are 3 more dividends until First call, for a total of $1.47.

MNR-B ask is $26.17. Buying now and holding till First Call yields about $0.30 - 1.1%. Better than keeping your money in a savings or MM account.

But trading commissions will reduce that somewhat - I am holding my MNR-B to FC.
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Old 09-08-2016, 11:19 AM   #1235
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Coolius, B got to 25.85 yesterday...I was a bit too slow, as I would have parked some money there... Not interested above that price though.
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Old 09-08-2016, 01:13 PM   #1236
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Coolius, B got to 25.85 yesterday...I was a bit too slow, as I would have parked some money there... Not interested above that price though.

Yeah, I see the smart guys are moving in now and scooping up the $26.15 shares - they are guaranteeing a return of 1.1% over the next 9 months ( about 1.3% annualized ).

I suppose if one has millions in cash earning zilch, that is a small way to make some of it work just a tad harder, no?
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Old 09-08-2016, 05:30 PM   #1237
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I'm not sure it's so smart for the poor folk, you can get 1% FDIC at an online bank which I'd rather have than the extra 0.1% for the first 250K as a 0.1% difference would be worth the insurance.

True if you have millions to sink into it, then do both.
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Old 09-08-2016, 06:09 PM   #1238
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Took my OSBCP sellings and used that to purchase 700 shares of the Monmouth Realty new preferred in grey market pre IPO sale. Temporary ticker is MONMP. Will be MNR-C eventually... 6.125% par yield. Yep, they are getting lower.
How is the price of monmp being determined? I see it varying around above par. Isn't the seller the issuer at this time? I got 400 at 25.02.
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Old 09-08-2016, 06:36 PM   #1239
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How does one feel about Alcoa?

Their preferred is way below par at ~$34 for a $50 issue, yielding over 7%. I took a chance with 200 shares. What you say?
I say this is the market timers play thread. Enjoy!
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Old 09-08-2016, 07:06 PM   #1240
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How is the price of monmp being determined? I see it varying around above par. Isn't the seller the issuer at this time? I got 400 at 25.02.


Its "Grey Market" randomness...There are different brokerage "runners" divvying out the shares...They already gave Monmouth their money, and now they want theirs...You just have to submit a bid and they will except or reject. I went a little high, but I didnt want to get bid out. No ask prices are ever given on grey market.. They accept or reject...By next week it will become MNR-C and trade officially on the exchanges.
Btw- Youbet...That was a very nice price....Congrats!
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